It was a new year, but Sunday was your usual roller-coaster of a day here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
Favorites mostly ruled the day by going 12-3 SU, though they were only 8-6-1 ATS, so I was still able to have a pretty good day as I went navigated the minefield to go 3-2 ATS on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page in Point Spread Weekly and 4-3 ATS in these “Tuley’s Takes” columns as we nailed all 3 outright upset winners with the Raiders, Bengals and Cardinals and also covered with the Falcons %plussign% 14.5. The losses were on the Texans (don’t get us started on that frustrating non-cover), Lions and Broncos.
Two-team, 6-points teasers (that I didn’t even include in a teaser portfolio this weekend as they didn’t seem that strong) were hit-and-miss as the Colts, Chargers and Seahawks were the only true “Wong teasers” that captured both the key numbers of 3 and 7 (and the Colts failed while the Chargers and Seahawks hit – though they didn’t need the points as they both easily covered their spreads). Some people surely used borderline teasers like the Bears (winner), Rams (push if teased down to -1) and Cowboys (loser), so hopefully you made the right calls this week.
We have a lot to recap from Sunday, including updating Circa Survivor (all 5 live entrants won to advance to the final week) and the leaderboards of the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest (and a champ already clinched in SC Gold), and the rest of the betting results from a full day of action. And then we’ll offer our best bet for Monday.
Sunday’s recaps
NFL: Packers routed Vikings 37-10 on Sunday Night Football, easily covering as 12.5-point home favorites and the game went Over the closing betting total of 42.5 (after it was lowered from 47.5 when Kirk Cousins was declared out). Faves went 12-3 SU on Sunday (only upsets were by the Raiders, Bengals and Cardinals) and went 8-6-1 ATS. Home teams went 10-5 SU but fared even better at 12-2-1 ATS. Unders went 9-6.
More NFL: Faves are 158-91-1 SU on the season with 5 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 128-119-3 ATS (51.8 percent). Home teams took 127-124-1 SU lead with 3 neutral-site games (Packers-Saints played Week 1 in Jacksonville, plus the 2 London games) but road teams lead 133-116-3 ATS (53.4 percent). Unders improved to 140-113-2 (55.3 percent) while primetime Unders dip to 28-22-1.
Even more NFL: In Sunday’s early games, faves went 7-2 SU but dogs led 5-3-1 ATS vs. closing lines as the Jets (%plussign% 14.5 vs. Bucs), Washington Football Team (%plussign% 6 vs. Eagles) and Ravens (%plussign% 7 vs. Rams) covered in losses. The upsets were by the Raiders (%plussign% 8.5 in their 23-20 win at the Colts) and the Bengals (%plussign% 3.5 in a 34-31 win vs. the Chiefs). Unders started the day 6-3. Faves then went 4-1 SU and ATS in the afternoon games with the only upset by the Cardinals (%plussign% 6.5, %plussign% 232 money line in their 25-22 win at the Cowboys);. Home teams also went 4-1 SU and ATS while Unders were 6-3.
CBB: No. 13 Ohio State beat Nebraska 87-79 in OT, but the Buckeyes still did NOT cover as 9.5-point road favorites. The game did go Over the betting total of 148.5 thanks to OT. No. 12 Houston (-12.5) failed to cover in its 66-61 win at Temple. No. 10 Michigan State (-2.5) covered in its 73-67 win at Northwestern.
NBA: Faves went 6-1 SU on Sunday but dogs went 5-2 ATS as the Pacers (%plussign% 4.5 at Cavaliers), Magic (%plussign% 10 at Celtics), Thunder (%plussign% 10 vs. Mavericks) and Timberwolves (%plussign% 7.5 at Lakers) all covered as underdogs in SU losses. The lone upset on the day was by the Kings (%plussign% 3.5 vs. Heat). Overs went 4-3.
NHL: Faves went 4-3 Sunday with upsets by the Rangers (%plussign% 130 in 4-0 win vs. Lightning), Devils (%plussign% 188 in 4-3 win at Capitals) and Jets (%plussign% 119 in 5-4 win at Golden Knights). Overs went 5-1-1 with the push in the Ducks-Avalanche (6) game.
Contest Corner
It's unofficial, but I have CALABASAS WISE GUY clinching the $435,000, winner-take-all SuperContest Gold title at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. SC Gold is the $5,000 version of the SuperContest (which costs $1,000 to enter) and has a winner-take-all prize. CALABASAS WISE GUY was just 2-3 in Week 17 but increased his point total to 58 points (on a record of 57-26-2, 69.5 percent) and no one can get within 5 points of him with 1 week and 5 picks to go.
All 5 remaining CircaSurvivor players won on Sunday (2 on the 49ers and 1 each on the Chargers, Saints and Seahawks) and advance to the final week with the guaranteed $6 million jackpot on the line (plus a $1 million bonus to be shared by anyone using the Buccaneers or Chiefs as their final pick). The 5 remaining Survivors are CHRIS PIPER-1, MYCOOL-1, On Top 247-2, RETURN OF SURVIVOR-5 and SYRACUSE HAWKEYES. As for the bonus, only RETURN OF SURVIVOR-5 has the Chiefs available and only MYCOOL-1 and On Top 247-1 have the Buccaneers available.
Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 3-1 so far in Week 17 (46-38 on the season) with the Steelers %plussign% 3.5 pending on Monday Night Football. The wins were on the Packers -7 (line was up to -13 at the submission deadline, so no surprise it was the most picked), Titans -3 and Cardinals %plussign% 6. The lone loss was by the Rams -3.5.
Circa Sports Million leader HANNIBAL BARCA-1 went 3-1-1 to improve to 60-24-1 (71.4 percent) and a 1-point lead over . . . wait for it . . . HANNIBAL BARCA-2 at 59-25-1 (70.2 percent). That’s right! The same person has the entries in sole possession of first and second place, however, DURBIFY-1 can split them and move into 2nd place just 0.5 behind the leader if Steelers %plussign% 3.5 covers on Monday Night Football.
SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in Week 17 (40-44-1 on season) with wins on the Packers -6.5, Bengals %plussign% 5 and PHI -3.5. Losses were on the Rams -3.5 and the Colts -6.5. SuperContest Gold Top 5 also went 3-2 (improving to 47-40-2 on the season) with the same results except the Chargers -6.5 replacing the Eagles.
SuperContest leader LITOFSKY CLAN went 2-3 in Week 17 but still leads at 57-26-2 (68.7 percent) and is 1 point ahead of XERRI 1 and CHUNG CHUNG at 57-28 (67.1 percent), though NOMSNAIGANSKK can pull within 0.5-point of the lead in 2nd place if Steelers %plussign% 3 covers on Monday night (a push would create a 3-way tie for 2nd place).
Monday’s Take
Two-team, 6-point teaser on Browns %plussign% 8/Under 48: We already have Steelers %plussign% 3 in our pocket (and pulling for our proxy clients at %plussign% 3.5 in Circa Sports million), but for those just now betting this game we feel the best approach is to take a two-team, 6-point teaser with the Browns and and the Under. There’s been a change of favorites in this game, so the Browns is now the teasable side as this should be a grudge match between divisional rivals even though their wild-card hopes are negligible. Still, the defenses should be playing for pride on national TV, so that’s why we’re teasing the Under though there’s a decent chance both sides will cover the teaser (between 36 and 48).
