Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Friday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Friday’s College Basketball slate.
7 p.m. ET: Dayton (-1.5, 135.5) at VCU
Dayton (19-3, ranked 18th) has won three straight games and just crushed St. Joseph’s 94-79. Meanwhile, VCU (15-8) has won two straight games and just beat Fordham 75-60. This line opened with Dayton listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so low and they’re rushing to the window to lay the point with Dayton. However, despite receiving 71% of bets we’ve seen Dayton fall from -2 to -1.5. Some shops are even inching down to -1. If the public is all over Dayton, then why are the oddsmakers dropping the spread to make it easier for the public to cover? Because pro money has jumped on VCU plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog. VCU is only receiving 29% of spread bets but 36% of spread dollars, making them the top contrarian play of the day in addition to having a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. VCU is better from the free-throw line (79% vs 74%) and also has the better defensive efficiency (59th vs 66th). VCU also has value as a buy-low unranked team against a sell-high ranked opponent (470-392 ATS, 55% since the start of last season).
8 p.m. ET: San Diego State at Nevada (-2.5, 140.5)
San Diego State (18-5, ranked 24th) has won three of their last four games and just brushed aside Air Force 77-64. Similarly, Nevada (18-5) has also won three of their last four games and just took down Utah State 77-63. This line opened with Nevada listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If San Diego State is ranked shouldn’t they be laying points, not getting them? Of course, we have to factor in home court advantage. But shouldn’t the ranked team be favored over the unranked team? If it looks fishy, there is almost always a reason for it. Pros have embraced the fishy home favorite, steaming Nevada up from -1.5 to -2.5. Nevada is receiving 63% of spread bets but 76% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action. Ken Pom has Nevada winning by one point (71-70). Since we might be looking at a tight game, bettors could protect themselves by targeting Nevada on the moneyline at -135 instead of laying the points. Nevada is receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the sharper pro wagers backing the Wolf Pack to win the game. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 17-11 (61%) straight up this season and 60-24 (71%) straight up since the start of last season. Nevada has the better field goal percentage (47% vs 45%) and averages more assists per game (15 vs 13). Nevada is 11-1 at home. San Diego State is 4-5 on the road. This is also a revenge spot for Nevada, who lost to San Diego State 71-59 on the road back on January 17th.
