Today the work week wraps up with a 26-game College Basketball slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of under-the-radar games tonight.
7 p.m. ET: Ohio (-2.5, 144.5) at Miami Ohio
Ohio (18-12) has won five straight games and just outlasted Buffalo 78-66. Meanwhile, Miami Ohio (15-15) just saw their three-game win streak come to an end, losing to Toledo 97-63. This line opened with Ohio listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Several shops are juicing up Ohio -2.5 to -115, signaling sneaky sharp liability on the road favorite and a possible move up to -3. Ohio is receiving 82% of spread bets and 91% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-sided action in their favor. Normally, this would be considered a “public” bet split. However, this is one of the smallest and least heavily bet games of the day. So, reading between the lines, the bet split likely represents a preponderance of smart money that has specifically targeted the road team. Ohio has the better offensive efficiency (110th vs 274th), better effective field goal percentage (53% vs 51%), better offensive rebound percentage (28% vs 22%) and also turns the ball over far less (23rd vs 170th). Ken Pom has Ohio winning by two points (73-71). He also has Ohio ranked much higher (157th vs 250th). Those wary of laying the points could instead target Ohio on the moneyline at -140. Ohio beat Miami Ohio at home 78-69 back in early February. Sharps have also leaned over, raising the total from 143.5 to 144.5. Only 41% of bets but a whopping 85% of dollars are taking the over, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split.
8 p.m. ET: South Dakota vs Oral Roberts (-4, 152)
This is the first round of the Summit League conference tournament. South Dakota (12-19) is the 9-seed and just saw their two-game win steak end, falling to North Dakota 95-66. Conversely, Oral Roberts (11-18) is the 8-seed, has lost seven straight games and just got rolled by Kansas City 71-54. This line opened with Oral Roberts listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with South Dakota and happy to fade Oral Roberts, who has struggled mightily as of late. However, despite 61% of spread bets taking South Dakota, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Oral Roberts (-3.5 to -4). This signals smart money buying low on Oral Roberts and selling high on trendy dog South Dakota. Oral Roberts is only receiving 39% of spread bets but 80% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Oral Roberts take much better care of the ball, ranking 31st in turnovers compared to 277th for South Dakota. Oral Roberts also has the better defensive efficiency (312th vs 353rd). Ken Pom has Oral Roberts winning by three points (79-76). He also has Oral Roberts ranked higher (282nd vs 316th). Oral Roberts is -180 on the moneyline for those looking to avoid a short win that may not cover the number. This is also a revenge spot for Oral Roberts, who lost to South Dakota on the road 77-76 in late February.
9 pm. ET: Wichita State at Tulane (-3, 155.5)
Wichita State (13-17) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Rice 87-66. On the other hand, Tulane (13-16) has lost seven straight games and just fell to South Florida 85-72. This line opened with Tulane listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line seems fishy. Even factoring in home court advantage, why is a team on a prolonged losing streak favored over a team who has played so well as of late? The public says the wrong team is favored and they’re taking Wichita State and the points. However, despite 55% of spread bets taking Wichita State, we’ve seen this line move further to Tulane (-2.5 to -3). This signals smart money embracing the fishy home favorite and fading the trendy dog Shockers. Tulane is receiving 45% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Tulane has a big edge offensively, ranking 96th in offensive efficiency compared to 225th for Wichita State. Tulane averages 82 PPG vs 73 PPG for Wichita State. Tulane also has the better effective field goal percentage (54% vs 50%), takes better care of the ball (55th in turnovers vs 255th), and also has the better free throw percentage (73% vs 70%). Ken Pom has Tulane winning by four points (80-76). He also has Tulane ranked higher (137th vs 156th). Those looking to protect themselves from may prefer Tulane on the moneyline (-155). Tulane is receiving 69% of moneyline bets but 88% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros taking Tulane to win straight up. Tulane is 10-6 at home. Wichita State is 2-8 on the road. This is also Senior Night for Tulane.
