Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, live from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s loaded College Basketball slate.
4 p.m. ET: Houston (-1.5, 134) at Kansas
Houston (19-2, ranked 4th) has won five straight games and just edged Texas 76-72 in overtime. Meanwhile, Kansas (17-4, ranked 8th) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games but just crushed Oklahoma State 83-54. This line opened with Houston listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Houston fall from -2.5 to -1.5. This signals respected money grabbing the points with home dog Kansas. The Jayhawks are only receiving half the tickets but 85% of the money, further evidence of the bigger sharper wagers backing the home team plus the points. Kansas has value as a conference dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leading to tighter games and more upsets. Kansas has several advantages on offensively (79 PPG vs 74 PPG), including the better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 50%), better three point shooting (37% vs 35%), better two-point shooting (56% vs 48%) and better free-throw shooting (74% vs 68%). Kansas is also a perfect 12-0 at home. Houston’s only two losses have come on the road (at Iowa State and TCU). Kansas has only been a home dog twice under Bill Self and they won both games outright.
4 p.m. ET: Florida at Texas A&M (-3, 153.5)
Florida (15-6) has won four straight and just upset Kentucky 94-91 in overtime. Conversely, Texas A&M (12-8) just saw their two-game winning streak come to an end, falling to Mississippi 71-68. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Pros have pounced on Texas A&M laying the short spread, steaming the Aggies up from -1.5 to -3. Texas A&M is receiving 76% of bets but 98% of dollars, signaling sharp money in their favor. Texas A&M has buy low value as a desperate home team off a loss against a sell-high team off a winning streak. The Aggies will lean on their defense, ranking 63rd in defensive efficiency compared to 92nd for Florida. The Aggies also take better care of the ball, ranking 29th in turnover percentage compared to 154th for Florida. Texas A&M also ranks 1st in country in offensive rebound percentage (44%). Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by two points (78-76). Pros seem to prefer Texas A&M on the moneyline (-155), as the Aggies are receiving 62% of moneyline bets but 79% of moneyline dollars. Texas A&M is 7-3 at home. Florida is 2-3 on the road.
8 p.m. ET: Iowa State at Baylor (-3.5, 142.5)
Iowa State (16-4, ranked 12th) has won three straight games and just took down Kansas 79-75. On the other hand, Baylor (15-5, ranked 18th) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 77-69 win over Central Florida. This game opened with Baylor listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Iowa State is ranked higher, why are they the dog? Of course we have to factor in home court advantage. But shouldn’t it be the other way around? Sharps have embraced the fishy home favorite, steaming Baylor up from -2.5 to -3.5. Baylor is only receiving 48% of bets but 70% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Baylor ranks 4th in offensive efficiency while Iowa State ranks 49th. Baylor also has the superior effective field goal percentage (56% vs 54%), better offensive rebound percentage (36% vs 33%), better three point percentage (41% vs 36%) and better free-throw percentage (73% vs 69%). Ken Pom has Baylor winning by three points (75-72). Those looking to protect themselves from a close win that may not cover the spread could instead target Baylor on the moneyline at -165. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 19-4 (83%) straight up this season and 115-28 (80%) since 2021. Baylor is 10-1 at home. Iowa State is 2-2 on the road.
