Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 96-game College Basketball slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of Saturday games.
5 p.m. ET: Southern (-3.5, 133) at Alabama A&M
Southern (18-12) has won two straight games and just took down Alabama State 65-57. Meanwhile, Alabama A&M (9-21) has lost three of their last four games and just fell to Grambling State 74-73. This line opened with Southern listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. We’re seeing several shops juice up Southern -3.5 to -115, signaling sneaky sharp liability on the road favorite and a possible move up to -4. This juice liability is also notable because this is a tiny added/extra game (306597-306598), which means the public has no interest in this unpopular bout but the pros have specifically targeted it. Southern is receiving 77% of spread bets and 95% of spread dollars, further evidence of one-sided sharp action going with the road favorite in a tiny, overlooked matchup. Southern has the better offensive efficiency (312th vs 351st), better defensive efficiency (129th vs 256th), better effective field goal percentage (50% vs 46%) and better thee point shooting (33% vs 28%). Southern also ranks 10th in the country in terms of forcing turnovers. Ken Pom has Southern winning by five points (71-66). He also has Southern ranked much higher (247th vs 336th). Those looking to protect themselves in a potentially tight game may prefer a moneyline play on Southern at -175. Southern is 12-5 in conference play. Alabama A&M is 8-9. Southern beat Alabama A&M 69-62 at home back in early February.
6 p.m. ET: Baylor at Texas Tech (-2, 147.5)
Baylor (22-8, ranked 11th) has won three straight games and just outlasted Texas 93-85. Similarly, Texas Tech (21-9) has won two straight games and just brushed aside Oklahoma State 75-58. This line opened with Texas Tech listed as a 2-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with Baylor, who has the better record and ranking. However, despite 76% of spread bets taking Baylor, we’ve seen this line remain frozen at Texas Tech -2. Normally, if you see a team getting such lopsided support you would see the line move in their favor. The fact this line hasn’t budged signals a sharp line freeze on Texas Tech, with pros fading trendy dog Baylor and instead backing the unpopular home favorite. Texas Tech is only receiving 24% of spread bets but 49% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Texas Tech has the better free-throw shooting (78% vs 74%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Pros seem to be specifically targeting Texas Tech on the moneyline (-130), as the Red Raiders are receiving only 19% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars. Texas Tech is 14-2 at home. Baylor is 4-4 on the road. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 27-19 straight up (59%) this season and 70-32 straight up (69%) since the start of last season. Big 12 home favorites are 66-21 straight up (76%) in conference play. This is a revenge spot for Texas Tech, who lost to Baylor on the road 79-73 in early February. It is also Senior Night for Texas Tech.
6 p.m. ET: UC Davis at Long Beach State (-2.5, 150)
UC Davis (18-12) has won three of their last four games and just edged UC San Diego 70-63. On the other hand, Long Beach State (18-13) has dropped four straight games and just came up short against UC Santa Barbara 76-74. This line opened with Long Beach State listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the points with Long Beach State in a bounce back spot, steaming the home favorite up from -1.5 to -2.5. Long Beach State is receiving 77% of spread bets but 92% of spread dollars. This may seem like a “Pro and Joe” bet split, however, it’s important to note that this is one of the smallest and least bet games of the day. So, the lopsided betting percentages in favor of Long Beach State are most likely evidence of a majority of sharp money backing the home team. Long Beach State is a classic buy-low, sell-high value play as they are entering on a losing streak while UC Davis has played well as of late. Long Beach State has the far better offensive efficiency (175th vs 260th), better offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 29%) and takes better care of the ball (209th in turnovers vs 324th for UC Davis). Ken Pom has Long Beach State winning by three points (74-72). Those wary of laying the points in what may be a close game could instead play Long Beach State on the moneyline (-145). Long Beach State beat UC Davis on the road 78-74 in mid February. This is also Senior Night for Long Beach State.
