Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s 64-game College Basketball slate.
7 p.m. ET: Drexel at Hofstra (-4, 135)
Drexel (17-10) has won two straight games and just brushed aside Campbell 81-66. Meanwhile, Hofstra (16-11) has won five of their last six games and just crushed Northeastern 82-62. This line opened with Hofstra listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was a bit short and they’ve steamed Hofstra up from -2.5 to -4. Hofstra is receiving 69% of spread bets and 81% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action from respected bettors. Hofstra has the far better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 50%), better three-point percentage (37% vs 34%), better free-throw percentage (75% vs 72%) and also turns the ball over less (99th vs 153rd). Ken Pom has Hofstra winning by two points (68-66). As a result, savvy bettors may prefer to back Hofstra on the moneyline (-180) in order to protect themselves from a tight win that may not cover the number. Currently 78% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars are taking Hofstra, further evidence of pros backing Hofstra to win the game straight up. This is a revenge spot for Hofstra, who lost to Drexel 79-77 on the road just a week ago. Hofstra is 9-2 at home. Drexel is just 5-9 on the road. Home favorites are 48-12 (80%) straight up in CAA conference play.
7 p.m. ET: Charleston (-1.5, 155) at Delaware
Charleston (20-7) has won five straight games and just edged William & Mary 65-57. In the same vein, Delaware (17-10) has won five of their last six games and just beat North Carolina A&T 62-54. This line opened with Charleston listed as a 2-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low for a team with a such a good won-loss record and they’re laying the points with Charleston. However, despite receiving 60% of spread bets we’ve seen Charleston fall from -2 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Delaware, with pros grabbing the points with the contrarian home dog. Delaware is only receiving 40% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, indicating a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. This qualifies as a “Ken Pom Sound the Alarm” play as Ken Pom has Delaware winning the game outright (77-76), which provides actionable value on Delaware plus the points. Delaware has the better field goal percentage (47% vs 43%) and better defensive efficiency (152nd vs 199th). We’ve also seen sharp money hit the over, steaming the total up from 152 to 155. The over is only receiving 34% of bets but a whopping 98% of dollars, a massive sharp over bet discrepancy.
9 p.m. ET: Troy at Arkansas State (-2.5, 154.5)
Troy (18-9) has won seven of their last eight games and just crushed UL Monroe 85-57. Similarly, Arkansas State (13-14) has won five of their last six games and just outlasted South Alabama 76-73. This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 2-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Sure, we have to factor in home court advantage, but why is a 13-14 team favored over an 18-9 team? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? Pros have have embraced the fishy home favorite, driving Arkansas State up from -2 to -2.5. Arkansas State has a big edge in terms of offensive efficiency (61st vs 162nd), as well as having the better effective field goal percentage (52% vs 50%) and a far better turnover percentage (134th vs 298th). Ken Pom has Arkansas State winning by two points (79-77). As a result, backing Arkansas State on the moneyline might be a safer bet (-135). Arkansas State is only receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 68% of moneyline dollars, signaling a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split to win the game straight up. Arkansas State is 8-3 at home. Troy is 3-7 on the road. Arkansas State just beat Troy 82-71 on the road a week ago. Home favorites are 37-10 (79%) straight up in Sun Belt conference play.
