Today March Madness officially kicks off with a pair of “First Four” games along with 11 NIT matchups. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of postseason games tonight.
6:40 p.m. ET: Wagner vs Howard (-3.5, 128.5)
These two 16-seeds are duking it out for the opportunity to play 1-seed North Carolina. The game will be played at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Wager (16-15) just beat Merrimack 54-47 to win the Northeast Conference Tournament. On the other hand, Howard (18-16) just edged Delaware State 70-67 to win the MEAC Tournament. This line opened with Howard listed as a 3-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have sided with Howard, pushing the Bison up from -3 to -3.5. Howard is receiving 72% of spread bets but 77% of spread dollars, indicating one-sided support from both wiseguys and the betting public. Howard has the better offensive efficiency (192nd vs 334th), better effective field goal percentage (52% vs 45%), better offensive rebound percentage (34% vs 30%), better three point shooting (38% vs 32%) and better free throw shooting (75% vs 71%). Ken Pom has Howard winning by two points (66-64). He also has Howard ranked higher (276th vs 293rd). Those looking to protect themselves from a close game that may not cover the spread could elect to play Howard on the moneyline at -165. Favorites are 29-19 (60%) straight up in First Four games since 2010.
7 p.m. ET: Boston College at Providence (-3.5, 138.5)
This is the first round of the NIT. Boston College (19-15) won two games in the ACC tournament, losing to Virginia 66-60 in overtime in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Providence (21-13) lost to Marquette 79-68 in the Big East tournament semifinals. This line opened with Providence listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is laying the chalk with Providence, who is at home and boasts a better won-loss record. However, despite receiving 65% of spread bets we’ve seen Providence fall from -6 to -3.5. A big part of this drastic line move is the fact that Providence star point guard and leading scorer Devin Carter (19.7 PPG) is likely to miss the game with an ankle injury. Providence will also be without forward Rich Barron due to injury. Boston College is one of the top contrarian plays of the night, receiving only 35% of spread bets. Motivation is also a question here as Providence was hoping to make the NCAA Tournament but was not selected. Meanwhile, Boston College is playing with house money, as they are fully healthy and were never in the conversation to make the Big Dance but still won four of their last five games and had a spirited run in the ACC Tournament. The Eagles are playing in the postseason for the first time since 2018. Boston College has the better offensive efficiency (67th vs 119th), better three-point shooting (36% vs 33%), better free-throw shooting (75% vs 72%) and takes better care of the ball (74th in turnovers vs 208th).
9:10 p.m. ET: Colorado State (-2.5, 121) vs Virginia
These two 10-seeds are battling for the right to play 7-seed Texas. The game will be played at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Colorado State (24-10) just saw their four-game winning streak come to an end, falling to New Mexico 74-61 in the Mountain West tournament semifinals. Meanwhile, Virginia just had their two-game winning streak snapped, losing to NC State 73-65 in the ACC tournament semifinals. This line opened with Colorado State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have pounced on Colorado State laying short chalk, steaming the Rams up from -1.5 to -2.5. This line briefly reached Colorado State -3 before some Virginia buyback dropped the line back down to -2.5. Colorado State is receiving 54% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Colorado State has the far better offensive efficiency (42nd vs 194th), better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 49%) and better free-throw shooting (75% vs 64%), which could prove crucial in a potential one-possession game. Ken Pom has Colorado State winning by two points (61-59). He also has Colorado State ranked higher (38th vs 69th). Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying the points could instead target Colorado State on the moneyline at -145. Favorites are 29-19 (60%) straight up in First Four games since 2010.
