Today we have a loaded slate of 43 College Basketball Conference Tournament games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
9 p.m. ET: Stanford (-2, 150.5) vs California
This is the first round of the Pac-12 tournament. It will be played at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Stanford (13-17) is the 10-seed while California (13-18) is the 7-seed. This line opened with Stanford listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps seem to think this opener was a bit low and have steamed Stanford up from -1.5 to -2. Stanford is receiving 62% of spread bets and 71% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Stanford has the better offensive efficiency (98th vs 123rd), better defensive efficiency (130th vs 137th), better effective field goal percentage (55% vs 49%), better three-point shooting (38% vs 34%) and better free-throw shooting (74% vs 73%). Ken Pom has Stanford winning by two points (77-75). He also has Stanford ranked higher (105th vs 118th). These teams just met in the final game of the regular season and Stanford crushed California 80-58. Those looking to protect themselves from a potential one-possession game may prefer a Stanford moneyline play at -130. We’ve also seen this total rise slightly from 150 to 150.5. This half point move is notable because only 40% of bets but 87% of dollars are taking the over, signaling a sharp contrarian over play.
9:30 p.m. ET: Boston College vs Clemson (-7, 145.5)
This is the second round of the ACC tournament. It will be played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. Boston College (18-14) is the 11-seed and just crushed Miami 81-65 in last night’s first round opener. Meanwhile, Clemson (21-10) is the 6-seed and coming off a bye. This line opened with Clemson listed as a 7-point neutral site favorite. The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with Clemson. However, despite 61% of bets taking Clemson, we’ve seen this line remain frozen at Tigers -7. Some shops have even briefly dipped down to Clemson -6.5 before rising back up to -7. Reading between the lines, this signals sharp liability on Boston College plus the points, as the line has always stayed the same or moved in their favor despite being the unpopular contrarian play. Ken Pom has Clemson winning by six points (77-71), which proves actionable value on Eagles +7. Boston College has won three straight games while Clemson has lost two of its last three, falling to Wake Forest 81-76 in the final game of the regular season. This is also a “rest vs rust” or “momentum” play on Boston College, who played yesterday and won while Clemson hasn’t played since March 9th. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 148 to 145.5. Currently 56% of bets and 72% of dollars are taking the under, a sharp bet discrepancy.
11:30 p.m. ET: CS Northridge vs Cal Santa Barbara (-4, 150)
This is the first round of the Big West tournament. It will be played at Dollar Loan Center in Henderson, Nevada. CS Northridge (18-14) is the 7-seed and has dropped five of their last six games, falling to Hawaii 72-70 in the regular season finale. On the flip side, Cal Santa Barbara (16-14) is the 6-seed and went 3-3 down the stretch, falling to UC Riverside 81-64 in the final game of the regular season. This line opened with Cal Santa Barbara listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. Pros have gotten down hard on Cal Santa Barbara, steaming the Gauchos up from -2 to -4. Cal Santa Barbara is receiving 72% of spread bets and 93% of spread dollars, signaling heavy wiseguy support in their favor. This line move and bet split are especially notable because this is a late game and also one of the least bet and most overlooked games of the night. In other words, the public doesn’t have much interest in this matchup, which means the heavy action on Cal Santa Barbara is likely to be coming from sharps who has specifically targeted the game. Cal Santa Barbara has the better offensive efficiency (173rd vs 289th), better effective field goal percentage (54% vs 49%), better three-point shooting (36% vs 30%) and better free throw shooting (74% vs 68%), which could prove critical in a tight game. Ken Pom has Cal Santa Barbara winning by one point (76-75). He also has them ranked higher (201st vs 235th). Those looking to follow the sharp move but wary of laying the points could elect to play Cal Santa Barbara on the moneyline at -175. Cal Santa Barbara is receiving 77% of moneyline bets but 93% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros banking on the Gauchos to win straight up.
