Today we have a loaded midweek slate of 34 College Basketball games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of high-profile games tonight.
7 p.m. ET: LSU at Arkansas (-3.5, 156.5)
LSU (16-13) has won four of their last five games and just brushed aside Vanderbilt 75-61. On the other hand, Arkansas (14-15) has dropped four of their last six games and just fell to Kentucky 111-102. This line opened with Arkansas listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even factoring in home court, why is a team with a sub .500 record who has struggled as of late favored over an above .500 team who has played so well recently? If it looks too good to be true, or doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. Sharps have embraced the fishy home favorite, steaming Arkansas up from -2.5 to -3.5. Arkansas is only receiving 51% of spread bets but 68% of spread dollars, signaling an undecided public but also heavy smart money in favor of the home team. Arkansas takes better care of the ball (109th in turnover percentage vs 277th for LSU) and also shoots better from the free-throw line (74% vs 72%). Ken Pom has Arkansas winning by one point (78-77). As a result, Arkansas might be preferable to play on the moneyline (-175) as opposed to laying the points. Arkansas is 10-6 at home. LSU is 3-6 on the road. SEC home favorites are 58-21 straight up (73%) in conference play this season. This is also a revenge spot for Arkansas, who lost to LSU on the road 95-74 in early February.
7:30 p.m. ET: Xavier at Butler (-3, 156)
Xavier (15-14) has won two straight games and just outlasted Georgetown 98-93. Meanwhile, Butler (17-13) just snapped a five-game losing streak with an 82-63 blowout win over DePaul. This line opened with Butler listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen Butler rise from -2.5 to -3, signaling smart money laying the points with the home favorite. Butler is receiving 73% of spread bets and 83% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-sided action from the betting public and wiseguys alike. Butler has the better offensive efficiency (53rd vs 60th), better effective field goal percentage (52% vs 49%) and a big edge at the free-throw line (79% vs 73%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Ken Pom has Butler winning by two points (79-77). As a result, savvy Butler backers may look to a moneyline play instead (-150). Butler is 11-5 at home this season. Xavier is just 3-7 on the road. Big East home favorite are 54-13 straight up (81%) in conference play this season. This is a revenge spot for Butler, who lost to Xavier on the road 85-71 in mid-January. This is also Senior Night for Butler, who is playing their final home game of the regular season. Four of Butler’s five starters are seniors.
9 p.m. ET: Mississippi State at Texas A&M (-2.5, 140)
Mississippi State (19-10) has dropped two straight games and just fell to Auburn 78-63. On the flip side, Texas A&M (16-13) just snapped a five-game losing skid with a 70-56 win over Georgia. This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re grabbing the points with Mississippi State, who boasts the better won-loss record. However, despite 55% of spread bets taking Mississippi State we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Texas A&M (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Texas A&M, with pros fading the trendy dog Bulldogs and instead backing the unpopular home favorite Aggies. Texas A&M is only receiving 45% of spread bets but 71% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Texas A&M has the better offensive efficiency (59th vs 71st), better turnover percentage (29th vs 284th), better offensive rebound percentage (42% vs 36%) and better free-throw percentage (70% vs 67%). Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by one point (70-69), so bettors may prefer a moneyline play on the Aggies at -145. Texas A&M is receiving 60% of moneyline bets but 79% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros backing the home team to win straight up. Texas A&M is 9-5 at home. Mississippi State is 2-7 on the road. SEC home favorites are 58-21 straight up (73%) in conference play this season.
