Today we have a quality, not quantity, 4-game College Basketball slate of NIT and CBI games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of postseason games tonight.
7 p.m. ET: Arkansas State vs High Point (-2.5, 158.5)
This CBI semifinal will be played at Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida. Arkansas State (20-16) is the 4-seed and just outlasted Montana 74-61 in yesterday’s quarterfinal. On the flip side, High Point (26-8) is the 1-seed and just crushed Cleveland State 93-74 yesterday. This line opened with High Point listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with top seed High Point. However, despite receiving 77% of spread bets we’ve seen High Point remain stagnant at -2.5. Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would see them rise from -2.5 to -3 or -3.5. The fact that this line hasn’t budged despite heavy public support signals a sharp line freeze on Arkansas State plus the points, with books reluctant to raise the spread for fear of giving out a better number to Red Wolves backers. Arkansas State is only receiving 23% of spread bets, making them the top contrarian play of the night. Ken Pom has High Point winning the game by two points (86-84), which provides a decent edge on Arkansas State plus the hook (+2.5). Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 162 to 158.5. Both of these teams played yesterday, which would match as a back-to-back “tired legs” under system play.
9 p.m. ET: Cincinnati at Indiana State (-3.5, 154.5)
This is the NIT quarterfinal. Cincinnati (22-14) just brushed aside Bradley 74-57 in the second round. Meanwhile, Indiana State (30-6) just edged Minnesota 76-64 in the second round. This line opened with Indiana State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have pounced on Indiana State laying the short chalk, steaming the Sycamores up from -2.5 to -3.5. Indiana State is receiving 66% of spread bets and 84% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Indiana State has several significant advantages on offense, including the better offensive efficiency (18th vs 82nd), better effective field goal percentage (60% vs 50%), better three point shooting (38% vs 33%) and better free throw shooting (81% vs 69%), which could prove crucial in a tight game. Ken Pom has Indiana State winning by three points (80-77). Those looking to follow the sharp Indiana State line move but wary of laying the points in what might be a one-possession game could instead play the Sycamores on the moneyline at -175. This is a true home game for Indiana State. NIT home favorites are 16-8 (67%) straight up this postseason and 187-77 (71%) straight up over the past decade.
