Today March Madness resumes with a pair of Final Four matchups. Both games will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, home of the Arizona Cardinals. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for both games using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s Final Four doubleheader.
6:09 p.m. ET: NC State vs Purdue (-9, 146.5)
NC State (26-14) is the 11-seed and just upset Duke 76-64 in the Elite 8. Meanwhile, Purdue (33-4) is the 1-seed and just brushed aside Tennessee 72-66 in the Elite 8. This line opened with Purdue listed as a 9-point neutral site favorite. The public is all over NC State as a trendy dog, with 66% of spread bets taking the Wolfpack plus the points. However, despite this lopsided betting the line hasn’t budged. It will be important to monitor this line movement leading up to tip-off. If we see it start to fall to Purdue -8.5 that will be a good sign that late smart money is breaking toward NC State. However, if the line creeps up to Purdue -9.5 that will signal late respected action fading the trendy dog Wolfpack. Purdue is only receiving 34% of spread bets but 43% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Ken Pom has Purdue winning by ten points (81-71). Purdue has the better offensive efficiency (2nd vs 40th), better defensive efficiency (17th vs 44th), better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 51%), better offensive rebound percentage (38% vs 28%) and better three-point shooting (41% vs 35%). However, NC State is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS as a dog in the NCAA Tournament and ACC Tournament. This is why the public says “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and is backing the Wolfpack plus the points. Sharps are also leaning under here, as 65% of bets are taking the over yet the total has fallen from 147 to 146.5. Both teams are profitable to the under in March Madness (Purdue is 3-1 to the under and NC State is 2-1-1 to the under). Both teams rank toward the bottom of college hoops in terms of pace (Purdue 67.2, NC State 68.1).
8:49 p.m. ET: Alabama vs Connecticut (-11.5, 160.5)
Alabama (25-11) is the 4-seed and just outlasted Clemson 89-82 in the Elite 8. On the flip side, Connecticut (35-3) is the 1-seed and just crushed Illinois 77-52 in the Elite 8. This line opened with Connecticut listed as a 10.5-point neutral site favorite. Sharps have laid the points with the Huskies, steaming Connecticut up from -10.5 to -11.5. Some shops are even inching up to -12. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on Connecticut. The Huskies are receiving 59% of spread bets and 72% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected smart money. Ken Pom, however, only has Connecticut winning by eight points (86-78). Both teams are great offensively (Connecticut 1st in offensive efficiency and Alabama 3rd). The big difference comes on the defensive end, with the Huskies ranking 4th in defensive efficiency compared to the Crimson Tide ranking 105th. One major reason why sharps have steamed the Huskies is that they have outperformed the betting line in two straight NCAA Tournaments. Connecticut is a perfect 10-0 ATS in March Madness dating back to last year. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 161.5 to 160.5. This is notable because the under is only receiving 39% of bets yet the total fell, signaling wiseguy reverse line movement. Connecticut is a perfect 4-0 to the under in this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Huskies play suffocating defense and rank at the bottom of college basketball in terms of pace (65 possessions per 40 minutes).
NCAA Champion Odds at DraftKings
Connecticut -195
Purdue +205
NC State +1600
Alabama +1600
