College Basketball Best Bets
The following is a collect of college basketball best bets from the 2024-25 VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide. Picks are from Matt Youmans, Aaron Moore, Zachary Cohen, and Adam Burke.
MATT YOUMANS
Duke To Win ACC Regular Season (+140)
North Carolina appears to be the only serious threat to Duke in a two-horse conference race. The Blue Devils are loaded in coach Jon Scheyer’s third season. Scheyer has had back-to-back 27-9 seasons and this is his most talented team, starting with Cooper Flagg, who had his way with a USA basketball team full of NBA stars over the summer in Las Vegas. A 6-foot-9 forward who can do everything on the floor, Flagg arrives as the nation’s top-ranked freshman and favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft. Khaman Maluach, a 7-foot-2 freshman from South Sudan, is another NBA prospect with a high ceiling. The Blue Devils have several veterans surrounding their young stars. Junior point guard Tyrese Proctor returns and is joined by transfers Maliq Brown (Syracuse), Mason Gillis (Purdue) and Sion James (Tulane).
Gonzaga To Win WCC Regular Season (-225) & NCAA Championship (18-1)
The talent gap between the Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s, the consensus No. 2 team in the West Coast Conference, is huge. It’s so big that the DraftKings price on Gonzaga to win the conference probably should be double what it is and closer to -500. The Zags found their groove in the second half of last season and played better than every other team in the nation but UConn and Purdue, which knocked out Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
Four starters return for coach Mark Few, who can count on senior guards Nolan Hickman and Ryan Nembhard, 6-foot-10 senior Ben Gregg and 6-foot-9 center Graham Ike, who’s as rugged as it gets around the basket. The Bulldogs’ top six players are seniors, which is rare for any elite team. Few boosted the talent level by adding transfers Khalif Battle (Arkansas) and 6-foot-7 forward Michael Ajayi, a Pepperdine star who made 47 percent of his 3-pointers and led the WCC in scoring. Steele Venters, a 3-point marksman and former Eastern Washington transfer, is ready to go after missing last season with an injury. Few’s team definitely has Final Four potential.
Mark Sears To Win Wooden Award (+900)
Alabama power rates as the No. 2 team in the nation, thanks to its senior point guard backing out of the NBA Draft before the June deadline. Sears was projected to be a second-round pick, so it was a wise decision. Sears, who averaged 21.5 points and shot 44 percent from 3-point range for the season, was the catalyst to the Crimson Tide’s run to the Final Four. He scored 24 points in the national semifinal loss to UConn and thrives in big games.
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AARON MOORE
Mark Sears (+900) & Johni Broome (20-1) To Win Wooden Award
I am putting one unit on Sears, who should be equally priced with North Carolina’s RJ Davis (+700) and Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson (+750). Sears’ ability to create social-media worthy highlights will help during the campaign season. I am adding a half-unit on Broome because Auburn has a chance to compete for an SEC title and, if that happens, it will propel the Tigers big man and his attractive odds onto the national stage.
UConn To Win Big East Regular Season (+150)
This futures play isn’t with an emphasis on financial ROI, more for the psychological side of betting. Even with odds barely over even money and months away from being decided, this might be the only time to get UConn at plus money to win the Big East. Dan Hurley has shown a unique Saban-like quality to keep his program hungry. The mix of Alex Karaban, returners and newcomers should once again make this the most talented team in the conference. Even with these low odds, I want to be part of what has become college basketball’s most valuable commodity.
Saint Louis To Win Atlantic 10 Regular Season (+450)
The Billikens now have the most dynamic player in the league with Robbie Avila. Saint Louis also has his former Indiana State coach Josh Schertz’s offense that the other A-10 coaches are not accustomed to facing in-conference. The Billikens offer more value – and possibly talent – than the favorite VCU.
Indiana To Win Big Ten Regular Season (+750)
I am not overly pleased coach Mike Woodson is part of this investment, but +750 for this newly loaded team needed a place in my futures portfolio. There is every indication the Hoosiers behind Myles Rice and Oumar Ballo can win the conference title over the Zach Edey-less Boilermakers and UCLA’s frequent flyers from Westwood. A ticket like this can be monetized towards the end of the season when the schedule appears to favor Indiana over Purdue.
Quinnipiac (+350) To Win MAAC
Iona (+260) is currently the favorite but the preseason No.1 team in the conference according to the coaches comes with a much better price.
Mississippi To Win NCAA Championship (100-1)
Here is the long shot I’m adding to my futures portfolio. It’s a minimal investment to put away and remember around the end of February with the plan of monetizing it. Most shops have Ole Miss in the 80-1 range. This number at publication is 100-1 at bet365. Chris Beard has a good squad in a loaded conference. The Rebels will get enough SEC wins to get into the NCAA tournament and use that regular-season experience to make a deep run. Essentially it’s a 100-1 ticket with the hopes that Beard can coach Ole Miss to the Sweet 16.
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ZACHARY COHEN
Florida To Win SEC Regular Season (25-1)
The Gators went 16-17 overall and 9-9 in SEC play in Todd Golden’s first year with the program. However, things looked a heck of a lot better in Year 2, as Florida went 24-12 overall and 11-7 in conference play. The Gators were also 12th in the nation in offensive rating, according to KenPom.
I generally like the way Golden’s team competed, as Bart Torvik had the group ranked eighth in the nation in offensive rebound rate (37.3%). The Gators also did a good job of keeping opponents from shooting 3s, finishing 36th in the country in 3PT rate defense (32.4%).
Realistically, Florida can be an elite team if it shoots the ball better and defends a little better. And there are reasons to believe both of those things will happen this year. The Gators return some of their best players from a year ago, with Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alex Condon all back and ready to go. But Golden also made some nice moves in the transfer portal, adding Florida Atlantic shooter Alijah Martin and Washington State big man Rueben Chinyelu. Martin’s 3P% dipped from 37.2% in 2022-23 to 33.8% in 2023-24, but he’s a legitimate floor spacer and should thrive in this system. And Chinyelu has the ability to be the starting center that Florida needs to improve on its 94th-ranked defensive rating. He’s a big body that can really clean the glass, which could be big for a Gators team that rebounded just 28.8% of misses last year. And if Chinyelu isn’t the guy, perhaps Thomas Haugh can be. He did some nice things last season.
I just love the firepower that Clayton possesses as a lead guard, and I think the team is built really well around him. Even Chattanooga transfer Sam Alexis can be a useful contributor right away, giving the team several guys that can play their roles to perfection.
With Golden’s elite coaching and a roster that has talent and experience, the Gators are a little more live than their odds suggest in a somewhat open SEC.
Saint Louis To Win Atlantic 10 Regular Season (+750)
I have a lot of respect for VCU and Dayton, but I just wouldn’t be surprised if Josh Schertz wins the league in his first season with Saint Louis. Last year, Indiana State was a 32-win team, and KenPom had the group at 13th in the nation in offensive rating — and 38th overall. Well, the two top players from that team, Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope, both followed Schertz.
Avila, who averaged 17.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game, was one of the best players in all of college basketball last year. And Swope is a guard that can really shoot the basketball, as he averaged 15.9 points per game and shot 36.2% from 3 a year ago. Those two alone make the Billikens a dangerous group in this conference, but Schertz added some other impressive transfers. One that stands out is Brown forward Kalu Anya, who averaged 9.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.0 blocks per game last year. He’s a stat-sheet stuffer that contributes on both ends of the floor. I’m also interested in seeing how Miami’s AJ Casey looks against worse competition.
Saint Louis also has two solid returners in Larry Hughes and Gibson Jimerson. The latter is an absolute sniper from deep, and he could feast with the types of looks he’ll get off Avila.
This should be a pretty special group offensively, and A-10 teams might not know what’s about to hit them. Last year, the Sycamores were fifth in the nation in 3P rate (49.5%) and 11th in 3P% (38.1%). They were also first in 2P% (62.4%), meaning they could spread you out or let Avila work you in the post. This year’s Billikens team should look just like that. Let’s just see if they can defend.
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ADAM BURKE
Memphis to Win the National Championship (+12000)
Memphis is clearly the top dog in the AAC this season. Head coach Penny Hardaway opened the NIL wallet to get proven commodities once again, but this time, he changed the types of players he was looking for, focusing on toughness and shot-making rather than finesse. P.J. Haggerty is probably the most notable name, as he had 21.2 points per game last season for Tulsa, but the starting five and the post depth stand out.
The rest of the roster is filled out with upperclassmen, mostly from other programs. Colby Rogers is at his fourth school and is a 38.7% 3-point shooter. Tyreek Smith is the big, physical body that Hardaway wanted this season to be a menace on both ends of the floor. He’s shot over 60% on 2s every season and spent three of those years in the Big 12 before being at rival SMU last season. Tyrese Hunter joins Haggerty as another great ball handler with scoring punch and he’s stepping down in class with the move from Texas. Nick Jourdain stayed, but Dain Dainja came in from Illinois, giving Hardaway two players that shot 66% on 2s. Add in 7-footer Moussa Cisse from Ole Miss and you’ve got tons of interior depth to go with guards that can play all night if you ask them.
In terms of Bart Torvik’s Projected Production from Transfers, Memphis ranks fourth behind Vanderbilt, Louisville, and DePaul. His projections have them favored in every AAC game and only a one-possession dog to UConn in the November 25 spotlight game. They’re also slight dogs at Clemson and Virginia in mid-December.
This is a team that should be able to bank a lot of wins for a high seed and has a chance at a signature win or two over those three games. The experience, top-end talent, and long, athletic depth make the Tigers a very dangerous squad.
If nothing else, I should get them into the Dance as a high seed and then I’m holding a big number that I can play with.
