College basketball best bets and projections
We split our men’s basketball bets, 1-1, yesterday, but had a profitable 2-1 day in women’s basketball to bring us to 249-201 overall on the season. There is a decent slate of games on Wednesday since some of the bigger conferences are tipping off the first round of their tournaments today, so I’ve got a couple of bets loaded in the chamber for you on the men’s side and hope to add a couple to the women’s card as well.
Follow me on X, @TShoeIndex, to get my women’s plays as soon as I make them and before the lines move in response.
Speaking of the conference tournaments, we’re previewing them all, so check out our 2024 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide.
Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “College Basketball Best Bets and Projections” pieces will be occurring Monday-Thursday on VSiN.com, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, March 13th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Alcorn State | Alabama A&M | 3.4 | 144.6 |
| Arkansas | Vanderbilt | 5.7 | 142.3 |
| Brigham Young | Central Florida | 6.7 | 141.3 |
| Butler | Xavier | -0.8 | 149.8 |
| California | Stanford | -0.1 | 149.1 |
| Clemson | Boston College | 7.3 | 145.5 |
| Colgate | Lehigh | 6.9 | 139.8 |
| Colorado State | San Jose State | 15.9 | 139.8 |
| Duquesne | Saint Louis | 8.6 | 144.0 |
| Fairfield | Iona | 2.5 | 146.2 |
| George Mason | Saint Joseph’s | 0.2 | 139.7 |
| Georgia | Missouri | 5.2 | 143.0 |
| Grambling | Alabama State | 1.5 | 128.9 |
| Kansas | Cincinnati | 1.9 | 140.4 |
| Louisiana Tech | Middle Tennessee | 14.1 | 130.6 |
| Maryland | Rutgers | 4.4 | 123.9 |
| McNeese State | Nicholls State | 14.8 | 139.4 |
| Montana | Montana State | 5.2 | 144.0 |
| New Mexico | Air Force | 17.7 | 144.7 |
| Norfolk State | Coppin State | 18.2 | 131.2 |
| North Carolina Central | Maryland-Eastern Shore | 10.1 | 134.7 |
| Penn State | Michigan | 4.9 | 149.6 |
| Providence | Georgetown | 11.0 | 143.0 |
| Quinnipiac | Canisius | 6.1 | 145.7 |
| Sam Houston State | Florida International | 4.5 | 147.7 |
| St. Bonaventure | La Salle | 6.2 | 142.2 |
| Stephen F. Austin | Abilene Christian | 2.7 | 143.2 |
| Syracuse | NC State | -0.5 | 148.3 |
| TCU | Oklahoma | 0.6 | 144.8 |
| Temple | UTSA | 3.5 | 151.0 |
| Texas | Kansas State | 4.8 | 140.7 |
| UC Riverside | Cal State Bakersfield | -1.9 | 134.0 |
| UC Santa Barbara | Cal State Northridge | 1.8 | 145.8 |
| UCLA | Oregon State | 4.3 | 128.2 |
| Utah | Arizona State | 9.3 | 142.6 |
| Utah Valley | California Baptist | 1.3 | 127.7 |
| Villanova | DePaul | 22.6 | 137.1 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | Fordham | 8.4 | 137.4 |
| Virginia Tech | Florida State | 2.5 | 147.2 |
| Wake Forest | Notre Dame | 10.4 | 133.6 |
| Washington | Southern California | 3.7 | 152.1 |
| Wichita State | Rice | 3.5 | 140.0 |
| Wyoming | Fresno State | 1.9 | 141.4 |
Bets:
Arkansas/Vanderbilt Under 148.5
Fresno State +7.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Abilene Christian | Tarleton State | 8.9 | 125.9 |
| Ball State | Ohio | 19.7 | 130.8 |
| Buffalo | Bowling Green State | 1.6 | 130.9 |
| East Carolina | Rice | 0.7 | 127.0 |
| Eastern Washington | Northern Arizona | 6.3 | 139.0 |
| Fairfield | Rider | 26.6 | 123.7 |
| Grambling | Florida A&M | 10.0 | 127.6 |
| Hampton | Hofstra | -5.7 | 117.7 |
| Howard | Morgan State | 10.3 | 117.4 |
| Jackson State | Prairie View | 21.8 | 125.7 |
| Kent State | Northern Illinois | 13.8 | 129.2 |
| Lamar | Texas A&M-Commerce | 13.4 | 134.7 |
| Liberty | Western Kentucky | 0.6 | 128.1 |
| Middle Tennessee | UTEP | 22.5 | 128.7 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | San Diego State | 17.3 | 135.8 |
| Niagara | Quinnipiac | 6.6 | 136.4 |
| Norfolk State | South Carolina State | 33.1 | 115.8 |
| Northeastern | UNC Wilmington | 10.1 | 122.8 |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | Southeastern Louisiana | 1.0 | 118.9 |
| Toledo | Western Michigan | 17.9 | 125.9 |
| UC Davis | Cal State Fullerton | 4.5 | 122.3 |
| UC Santa Barbara | Long Beach State | 3.7 | 134.4 |
| UT Arlington | Southern Utah | 6.7 | 138.0 |
