College basketball best bets today
After one of the slower Thursdays in recent March Madness history, everybody is hoping that we get a chaos-filled Friday with plenty of buzzer beaters and compelling games. We’ve got best bets from our VSiN hosts and experts for today’s action and I’ll be penning a couple of games here.
Remember that we are putting together capsules and matchup previews for every game throughout the tournament and we already have Saturday’s up for the second round courtesy of Zachary Cohen. We’ll be adding the Estimated Scores when they populate on our college basketball games today page.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.
Here are two college basketball best bets for today.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Vermont Catamounts vs. Duke Blue Devils (-12.5, 132)
7:10 p.m. ET
Most of the market is sitting 12, so shop around here, as DraftKings is making you pay a bit of a premium on the big-name program in this one. I’m not concerned with Duke’s losses to North Carolina or NC State, as they had won 11 of 13 prior to that in ACC play. They’re stepping down in class here to play the America East champs, who aren’t even on par with previous Vermont teams that bowed out in the first round.
This team is better defensively than those other teams, but represents a huge step down on offense. This year’s Catamounts ranked outside the top 200 in 3P% and this is the worst 3-point shooting team for John Becker since 2013. This team is also outside the top 70 in 2P%, the first time that has happened since 2019. In fact, it’s the first time per Bart Torvik that Vermont was outside the top 32 in 2P% since that season.
Meanwhile, Duke is a top-40 team in 2P% and a top-15 team in 3P%. They’re a top-20 offense in eFG%. Their defensive numbers aren’t elite, but they’re plenty good enough, especially with the strength of schedule discrepancy between these two teams.
Most importantly, I think Jon Scheyer proved last year that he realized Duke had a focus problem in the first round. A lot of people were high on Oral Roberts because of Duke’s perception and Scheyer’s team won by 23.
Vermont played two Quadrant 1 opponents and game up 1.179 and 1.113 points per possession, including their 22-point loss to Virginia Tech. Duke had a 40.5% shot share on Close Twos, thanks in large part to 7-footer Kyle Filipowski, and I don’t think Vermont has an answer on the inside.
Pick: Duke -12.5
TCU Horned Frogs (-4, 151) vs. Utah State
9:55 p.m. ET
There are a lot of things working in TCU’s favor in this game. While I greatly respect Utah State and head coach Danny Sprinkle, who is going places in a hurry, the Aggies just got a bad matchup in this one. The Horned Frogs play a fast, long, in-your-face defense, as they had a 20.8% TO% during the season. The difference between conferences is huge to me in this one as well.
The Big 12 is a much more physical league than the Mountain West and that’s the type of game that TCU wants to play. They were a top-20 offensive rebounding team per Bart Torvik. They also posted a shot share on Close Twos of 42.3%, which was the second-highest in the Big 12, trailing only Oklahoma. New Mexico was the highest-rated team in shot share on Close Twos in the Mountain West and had 1.259 and 1.158 points per possession against the Aggies in two games.
Utah State was actually second in the MWC in shot share on Close Twos, so I could see this being a high-scoring game as well, but I think their presence in the conference had a lot to do with that. I also feel like Utah State’s rebounding stats are skewed. The Mountain West was 24th in ORB% per Torvik, while the Big 12 was third.
Lastly, Utah State allowed opponents to shoot over 53% on 2s. TCU can shoot 3s and shot 35.6% on them, but over 70% of their shot attempts were 2s. Jamie Dixon’s crew just matches up well here.
Note: This game appeared in the March Mania Betting Guide, but the line at time of publish was -3.5. It is now -4 and that is how it will be graded on the tracking sheet.
Pick: TCU -4
