College basketball expert picks and predictions
We’ve got 11 games on the betting board for Monday, though Northern Colorado and Texas A&M Commerce got the day started really early. That meant 10 games to examine for today, as we’re going to have some weird weeks and weird matchups over the next three weeks. Once we get through the holidays, it will almost exclusively be conference action. For now, we have exam weeks, lighter home-court advantages, and long layoffs for some teams.
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Here are some thoughts on the December 11 card (odds from DraftKings):
Delaware Blue Hens (-4.5, 143.5) at Robert Morris Colonials
7 p.m. ET
One of three games on the main board for today features Delaware on the road against Robert Morris. The Blue Hens are riding a high after scoring a road win against Xavier six days ago to snap a three-game losing streak. Head coach Martin Inglesby has a lot of different scoring options, even though he doesn’t run a deep bench and I like the upside of this team throughout CAA play.
I like them here as well, even though the line has moved against them in the market. The Blue Hens have struggled on defense a bit over the last four games, allowing at least 1.089 points per possession in each of them, but two of those games came on November 25 and 26 in a back-to-back and then a back-to-back-to-back, where the Blue Hens were negatively impacted by really only going 6 or 6.5 players deep with their rotation.
Delaware has a shot share of 45.1% on Close Twos compared to 36.5% for Bobby Mo, so the Blue Hens do get inside more effectively, though their FG% is probably open for some positive regression. It could happen tonight, as the Colonials have allowed opponents to shoot 62.9% on Close Twos, which ranks 296th in the nation. They also have a 41.2% shot share against, which ranks 280th. Robert Morris is 348th in the nation in 2P% defense per Bart Torvik.
Bobby Mo is also bad at shooting 3s, coming in at 28.5%, while Delaware is in the top 100 at 35.4%. They’ve also turned the ball over on more than 20% of their possessions. They’ve beaten lower-division Point Park and Fairleigh Dickinson, who ranks in the 320s for Torvik and they allowed 1.183 PPP in that game.
I think Delaware, who is very well-rested, comes at a cheap number tonight.
Pick: Delaware -4.5
