College basketball expert picks and predictions
A new week in college basketball starts with 19 games on the docket. We don’t have any major games on the board for today, as most of the card lacks some shine, but that’s where the betting side of it comes in to make these games a little bit more interesting.
Remember, all of these schools are on holiday break now, so the students are gone. That means that you need to consider home-court advantage to be less of an advantage, at least until after the New Year or unless there’s some sort of huge game that other fans in the city may show up for given the magnitude.
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Here are some thoughts on the December 18 card (odds from DraftKings):
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks at Marist Red Foxes (-9.5, 132)
7 p.m. ET
We’ve got some deep cuts tonight, beginning with this matchup between Marist and Maryland-Eastern Shore. We’ve seen a line move on the Hawks in this one, due in large part to a huge strength of schedule discrepancy between these two teams. UMES has played the 84th-ranked schedule per Bart Torvik and Marist has played the 351st out of 363 teams. Ken Pomeroy has it even bigger at 56th for UMES and 353rd for Marist.
What it boils down to is that UMES has played a couple really good teams in Liberty and North Carolina State, but also a lot of teams ranked in the 150s. It’s not like they’ve played a lot of elite competition. This is a team that has had over a point per possession in just one of their seven games against Division I opponents. Their shot selection is really poor, as they have just a 34.2% shot share on Close Twos and are only shooting 45.8% on those attempts because of a lack of quality bigs.
They’re shooting 31.9% from 3, which is the key stat here because Marist has forced opponents into a 3 on 40.3% of shot attempts. The Red Foxes have only allowed a 32.1% shot share on Close Twos. They really pack it in down low and force the other team to take jump shots. Better competition or not, UMES has not shot the ball well in virtually any facet and ranks 357th in the nation in 2P% and 226th in 3P%.
Meanwhile, Marist gets the ball inside at a higher clip and is actually 79th in eFG% offense and 68th in 2P%. But, defensively, that’s where Marist shines. John Dunne’s team is 34th in eFG% defense and also just outside the top 50 in TO%. I fully understand expecting some positive regression from UMES, but Marist is an excellent defensive team and the Hawks rank right around their average opponent this season and the stats show a lot of success against that kind of competition.
Pick: Marist -9.5
Morgan State Bears at Campbell Camels (-8.5, 138)
7 p.m. ET
A battle of teams ranked in the 300s features Campbell and Morgan State, as the Camels lay a hefty number at home. Campbell ranks 351st in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and 354th per KenPom. Morgan State does like to run, coming in 53rd for Torvik and 42nd for KenPom. However, the Bears were successfully slowed down by Towson and also played sub-70 possession games against Longwood and High Point recently.
Even if this game is played a little faster than most Campbell contests, these are two terrible offenses. Campbell is 342nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency per Torvik and Morgan State is 326th. Campbell has a TO% of 21.6% and Morgan State is also on the high end at 19.7%, as the teams rank 339th and 268th, respectively. Campbell has forced the opposition into a lot of 3-point attempts, with a 3P Rate against of 43.3% and Morgan State is just 237th in the nation in 3P% at 31.6%.
Neither team is good at securing offensive rebounds. Neither team is at 70% or better from the free throw line. Campbell’s fastest pace in a regulation game this season against a Division I opponent has been 68 possessions. They slow the game down and try to work the ball inside, where they get decent looks with a 47% shot share on Close Twos, but they’re only shooting 55.1%.
I think Campbell can successfully slow this game down and I don’t either team will shoot it well, so I like the Under here.
Pick: Under 138
Eastern Washington Eagles (-6.5, 145) at Cal Poly Mustangs
10 p.m. ET
I’ve got a late game for you as well, as Eastern Washington and Cal Poly get together in San Luis Obispo. This is a nice step down in class for the Eagles, who have already played five Quad I games, facing Utah, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Washington State, and USC – all on the road. They have one win over a Division I opponent and have a great shot at No. 2 tonight.
Eastern Washington has actually done okay offensively against a tough slate. They’re 134th in the nation in 2P% and 84th in 3P%. They have suffered defensively, but Cal Poly plays defense against themselves with some atrocious shot selection. The Mustangs have a shot share of just 34.2% on Close Twos, settling for a mid-range jumper nearly 36% of the time. The odd thing is that they’ll take those low-percentage shots, but won’t step back very often. Their 29.9% 3P Rate is 326th in the country.
Eastern Washington takes a lot of 3s, so they can be something of a high-variance, make-or-break team. They’ve shot a 3 on 46% of their shot attempts and teams have bombed away with a 36.8% success rate against the Mustangs. EWU has a 21% TO% for the season, but I would anticipate that they take better care of the basketball with the step down in class and they clearly have the more efficient shooting offense.
EWU has played the 15th-ranked schedule per Torvik and second per KenPom. Last season, they had a top-100 shot share on Close Twos. This season, they are 190th. As the degree of difficulty steps down for this team, I think they can get even better offensively by being able to get inside more. They’re a team to watch closely and a team to bet on tonight.
Pick: Eastern Washington -6.5
