College Basketball Best Bets Today:
A new week of college basketball begins as we are exactly four weeks and one day away from the start of the NCAA Tournament. Conference tournaments are getting started once we flip the calendar over to March. So, it’s getting to be crunch time for teams on the bubble and those that need wins to qualify for their respective conference tourneys.
As usual, it is a light Monday slate, with only four games on the main board and 16 on the added board from the SWAC, Southland, MEAC, and Patriot League.
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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.
This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Jackson State Tigers at Bethune Cookman Wildcats (-1.5, 145.5)
7 p.m. ET
We start with some SWACtion, as Jackson State takes on Bethune Cookman. I picked on the Wildcats on Saturday and they lost at home as a bigger favorite to a surging Alcorn State team. Unfortunately, Alcorn State and Florida A&M are two play-on teams right now in this conference and they’re playing each other.
But, I do like what Jackson State has done recently. They’re the No. 1 team in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play and had 1.189 points per possession in the first meeting between these two, which was a five-point win for the Tigers back on Jan. 25. Bethune Cookman shot better than I would have expected them to in the first meeting, including a 9-of-23 mark from 3. This is a solid 2-point team, but not a 3-point team and I could see some regression here.
As they did in the first meeting, Jackson State should win the turnover battle and they’re also the best team in this conference at getting to the free throw line, along with the highest FT% at 75.2%. In a game projected to be close, those details matter.
Pick: Jackson State +1.5
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (-4.5, 132.5) at East Texas A&M Lions
7:30 p.m. ET
Another rematch situation where I’m looking for the regular season sweep, but this time with a favorite. Down in the Southland, Stephen F. Austin might be experiencing some of the positive regression that I was betting on a little bit too early. This is a team that is a monster on the offensive glass, but with a 47.8% shot share on Close Twos, they’re shooting under 55% at the rim.
It seems as though that may be changing, as they’re shooting over 52% on 2-pointers as a whole over their last six games, five of them victories. They’re up over 50% on 2s now in Southland play for the season as well. East Texas A&M is a bad defensive team. Their TO% on defense has propped up their efficiency metrics, but they’ve allowed a lot of teams to make a lot of shots.
Their TO prowess is canceled out in this game by SFA’s ability to force takeaways at a similar rate, but also take better care of the basketball. In the first meeting, the Lumberjacks won the turnover battle 16-11 and offensive rebounding battle 14-11. Both teams had an out-of-body experience from 3, but SFA was the more efficient team in terms of creating shots at the rim. So when the shooting numbers likely go back towards the mean, I trust the Lumberjacks to get the best of the opportunities.
I didn’t get the same number my colleague Greg Peterson got on Stephen F. Austin last night when his article went up, but I like them all the same at this number.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin -4.5
