College basketball best bets today
Another massive college basketball slate is upon us, as we have over 140 games to think about for Saturday. As always, in the interest of fairness and lead time, I don’t list any pick in here before the 2 p.m. ET hour, but I also got a late start on the article today, so I’ve pushed that back another hour today to give the article a little more time to be seen and marinate. So, the college basketball best bets today start will only come from 3 p.m. ET or later.
I am participating in the second annual Circa College Hoops Challenge hosted by Matt Youmans and graciously incentivized by Derek Stevens. You can see the rules of the contest here and see my picks and the picks of other contestants here.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.
Here are six college basketball best bets for today.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Grand Canyon Antelopes (-5, 141.5) at Utah Valley Wolverines
4 p.m. ET
How about some WACtion to start things off today? Yeah, I guess that sounds a little awkward, but get your minds out of the gutter.
Grand Canyon and Utah Valley played back on January 18 and the Antelopes came away with a 78-65 win, so that score would have gone over this total. In that game, Grand Canyon had a season-high 27.9% TO% and still scored 1.036 points per possession. Utah Valley only had .863 PPP, but that’s because they went 15-of-35 on shots at the rim.
The game saw 56 free throw attempts and just 36 makes. It makes sense that these two teams would parade to the line, as Grand Canyon is third in free throw rate and Utah Valley is 15th. I fully expect more of the same in this one, but I could absolutely see Utah Valley converting better at the rim and also Grand Canyon taking a little bit better care of the basketball.
These teams are 40th (GCU) and 69th (nice, UVU) in TO% on defense, so transition buckets are possible here as well.
Pick: Over 141.5
Little Rock Trojans (-2.5, 143.5) at Eastern Illinois Panthers
4:30 p.m. ET
Eastern Illinois was a successful fade for me on Thursday night and I’m going back to the well tonight with the visiting Little Rock Trojans. The Panthers beat the Trojans 90-88 back on January 6 in Arkansas, so we have a revenge spot in this matchup. That isn’t my reason for liking the play, but it doesn’t hurt, as teams would certainly love to avenge losses.
There are a lot of reasons why I like this play. In the first meeting, EIU, a 32.1% team from 3 with a 3P Rate of just 30.3%, was 11-of-20 from deep. Right now, they are riding the struggle bus from distance going just 11-of-58 from 3 over their last three games. They’ve been without Kooper Jacobi, who leads the team with 7.4 rebounds per game and Little Rock is one of the top rebounding teams in the league.
Little Rock is second in 3P% offense and second in 2P% offense, while EIU is seventh in 3P% and 11th in 2P%. This is also a Panthers bunch that ranks 10th in 3P% defense and 11th in 2P% defense. The Trojans also like to push the tempo, something that I felt was a positive for UT Martin in Thursday’s game and that came to fruition, as the Skyhawks rolled by 17 on the road in Charleston.
I expect Little Rock to avenge the loss and cover the number here, as the first game was full of offensive anomalies for the Panthers.
Pick: Little Rock -2.5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Florida Atlantic Owls (-17.5, 155)
6 p.m. ET
I’m sitting on a bad number in the aforementioned Circa College Hoops Challenge with Tulsa here, but the Golden Hurricane are still among my college basketball best bets today and I’ll gladly take them for this exercise at +17.5. To me, Tulsa profiles as a team to not get blown out in this spot. There aren’t any truly awful shooting numbers offensively or defensively in their profile.
Are they on the same wavelength as FAU? No, of course not, but that’s why they’re getting a 17.5-point head start. Tulsa is only 0.5% behind FAU in FG% on Close Twos and has a 38.2% shot share on those attempts compared to FAU’s 41.8%. Both teams have similar FG% against at the rim.
FAU is a much better team shooting mid-range jumpers, but these are two offenses that are driven by data and metrics in terms of shot selection, so neither one of them shoots many 2-point jumpers. FAU is a better 3P% team, but Tulsa is 32nd in the nation in 3P% defense. I think Eric Konkol is a really good head coach and the Golden Hurricane have played well in league action.
They have close loses to Memphis and Tulane and their only awful performance was against SMU, which could happen here, but FAU has allowed over a point per possession in all but one of their conference games. The one as Rice, who is a very bad team by AAC standards.
Gimme the big head start here and I’ll take the Golden Hurricane.
Pick: Tulsa +17.5
South Florida Bulls at North Texas Mean Green (-6.5, 128.5)
6 p.m. ET
Another AAC game made the cut for me in the Circa Challenge and it is South Florida against North Texas. While I grant that this is a step up for Amir Abdur-Rahim’s team, the Bulls are playing some outstanding basketball right now. They’ve ripped off six in a row, including a road win at Memphis, and currently rank second in eFG% offense and fourth in eFG% defense in conference play.
North Texas is the top defense by eFG% in AAC games by virtue of leading in 2P% defense, but this has not been a good offensive team. The Mean Green are 12th in eFG% offense and 2P%. They have done very well on the offensive glass, but USF is a good defensive rebounding team by conference standards.
In a game that will be played at an extremely slow pace, North Texas may struggle to score. Furthermore, UNT has a 19.1% TO% on offense and South Florida is 66th in the nation in TO%. While UNT is 62nd in TO%, USF takes way better care of the basketball. So, you have an offensively-challenged Mean Green bunch that may give up some possessions here against a Bulls team playing at a high level.
USF has a higher shot share at the rim. The Bulls also aren’t that much different from the Mean Green in terms of 3P% offense or defense. North Texas could get a bump if point guard Rubin Jones returns today, but he’s missed six of the last seven games, so I don’t think we’d get the top-tier version of him anyway.
Pick: South Florida +6.5
Campbell Camels at UNC Wilmington Seahawks (-14, 136.5)
7 p.m. ET
The thought process in this CAA matchup is pretty simple. Campbell and UNC Wilmington should play a very slow game here, as Takayo Siddle’s Seahawks are 269th in adjusted tempo and Kevin McGeehan’s Camels move, well, like camels, with the 311th-ranked adjusted tempo in the nation. This is a lot of points, so that’s a start.
But, also, this is a UNC Wilmington team that ranks 12th in 3P% over nine conference games at 30.7%. Campbell tries to really pack it in defensively and opponents have a 42.7% 3P Rate against them this season, which is 325th in the nation. They’re okay with forcing teams into long jumpers and I think they should be very okay with forcing UNCW into a lot of 3s here.
Campbell has a shot share on Close Twos of 44.6% with a very methodical offensive scheme. UNCW has allowed a 61.4% FG% on Close Twos. The Camels are in the top 25 in shot share on Close Twos and UNCW is just outside the bottom 50 in Close Two FG% against.
To me, that should allow Campbell to keep this slow-paced game close, as it’s hard for the Seahawks to run and hide without making 3s. They are 12th in eFG% in conference play. The only reasons they grade so well in adjusted offensive efficiency is a super low TO% of 12.9% and a 79.7% free throw rate, but Campbell is 22nd in FT Rate against, so they play defense without fouling.
Pick: Campbell +14
Eastern Washington Eagles at Montana Grizzlies (-2.5, 151)
9 p.m. ET
Eastern Washington completes the Montana double here with a matchup in Missoula against the Grizzlies. EWU lost 70-60 in Bozeman to Montana State on Thursday for their first Big Sky defeat and I’m expecting the second to come here.
There are a lot of things I like about this Eastern Washington team, but they’ve been building up a pretty big regression profile and it came to fruition against Montana State, as they were just 2-of-18 from 3. We saw some 3P% regression in the home win over Northern Colorado last Thursday as well, as they were just 6-of-26 and nearly lost at home as a big favorite.
Montana is 29th in the nation in 3P% defense. Up until recently, EWU was leading the Big Sky in both 3P% offense and defense by wide margins. They still lead in 3P% defense, holding opponents to 29%, but they were 353rd in the nation in 3P% defense in non-conference games at 39.2%, so this is more about good luck and good fortune to me than some sort of major defensive change.
Montana is a top-100 3P% team. Also, Montana is a team that takes excellent care of the basketball with a TO% under 15%, while EWU’s is up around 20%. Montana doesn’t force a ton of takeaways, but they could scoop some extra possessions here.
Also, EWU heads into this game having played the lowest strength of schedule in the conference. They had major issues with Northern Colorado and just lost to Montana State. They trailed by as many as 13 against Weber State before the Wildcats fell apart. I just think this is another reality check.
Pick: Montana -2.5
