College basketball best bets today
We’ve got one of the bigger Thursday cards that I can remember so far this season, as there are 66 games on the men’s side to look at on February 15. There is a wide spread of conferences to consider tonight as well, which is typically pretty good for my college basketball best bets today since there are a lot of small conferences that I try to find value in.
Every conference except for the Ivy League now has less than a month left in the regular season. All these games going forward matter for seeding and for making the conference tourney, so keep that in the back of your mind as you handicap the card.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.
Here are three college basketball best bets for today.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (-4.5, 148.5) at Old Dominion Monarchs
7 p.m. ET
The rested Ragin’ Cajuns head to Norfolk, Virginia to take on Old Dominion. It is a long trip for Louisiana, but Bob Marlin’s bunch has not played since Sunday’s blowout win over Bowling Green, in which a lot of the team’s stars were able to take it easy. It was a resounding bounce back effort after losing to Georgia State last Wednesday.
I really like Louisiana in this game. They have a 20.9% TO% on the season and rank third in Sun Belt play at 20%. Old Dominion has been without guard Vasean Allette for the last five games, as he was dismissed from the team. He averaged 18.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per contest. He was far and away the team’s best contributor and they’ve gone 1-4 since he was sidelined. He’s now entered the transfer portal.
ODU has taken great care of the ball throughout the season, but in the five games without him, their TO% by game have been 17.2%, 13.4%, 21.1%, 11.9%, and 20.3%. They’ve scored .925, 1.11, .886, .965, and .892 points per possession per Bart Torvik.
To me, they just don’t have the firepower to hang with Louisiana. The Ragin’ Cajuns are not a deep team and I think that will hurt them with the conference tournament schedule, but when they are rested, they are dangerous. After a slow start to conference play, they’ve scored at least 1.116 points per possession in seven of their 10 Sun Belt clashes.
I expect them to do that tonight and get extra possessions via turnovers. They are also a much better offensive rebounding team and lead the nation in 3P% defense.
Pick: Louisiana -4.5
Delaware Blue Hens (-7, 147) at Elon Phoenix
7 p.m. ET
Another road favorite has caught my eye for tonight, this time from the CAA. Delaware heads to Elon as the Blue Hens look to extend their winning streak to five games. This is one of those shot selection handicaps for me, as I really like the way that Martin Inglesby’s offense operates. The Blue Hens have scored 1.271, 1.173, 1.196, and 1.11 PPP in their last four games and that includes a 2-of-15 performance from 3 last time out.
Delaware is 75th in eFG% offense per Torvik and 86th in eFG% defense, so this is a strong team at both ends of the floor. They have a 43.5% shot share on Close Twos, which ranks just outside the top 30 in the nation. Elon ranks in the bottom 100 in shot share against on Close Twos at 40.3% and in the bottom 40 in Close Two FG% against at 63.3%.
So, I expect Delaware to find success on the interior. Elon doesn’t get to the rim a lot, but does take a lot of 3s. They’ve shot 36.3% from 3 and have a 42.2% 3P Rate, but Delaware is a top-60 3P% defense. Elon’s 36% 3-point shooter Rob Higgins missed the last game and has been battling injuries.
Elon is 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency among CAA teams. Delaware is better in virtually every stat category and they’ve held opponents to 28.7% from 3 in league play.
Pick: Delaware -7
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Sacramento State Hornets (-3, 132)
9 p.m. ET
It has been a very long season for Sacramento State and I don’t really think that they deserve to be favored over anybody in this conference right now. The Hornets are stepping down in class a bit against Northern Arizona, but this is a team that has scored 61, 62, 67, 51, 45, 40, and 53 points over the last seven games during this current eight-game losing streak.
That stretch included a 70-61 loss in Flagstaff against NAU, as the Lumberjacks won by nine, despite shooting just 6-of-23 from 3-point range.
The Lumberjacks take better shots, as they have a 41% shot share on Close Twos compared to 34.8% for Sacramento State. The Hornets are shooting 29.8% from 3. To their credit, they’ve really cut down on their 3P Rate in Big Sky play, but they can’t score efficiently on 2s either, ranking 10th at 46.2% inside the arc against conference foes.. They’ve also turned the ball over nearly 24% of the time for the season and 22% of the time in conference, so they take bad shots and give away possessions.
Sac State is also 328th in the nation in TO% on defense, so they aren’t really getting those lost possessions back. The Hornets are 10th in eFG% offense and defense in Big Sky play, while the Lumberjacks rank eighth in both categories.
I just don’t think Sac State deserves a favorite role and I’ll take the points.
Pick: Northern Arizona +3
