College Basketball Best Bets Today:

Most of the major conferences are on hiatus this evening, as the majority of the card is made up of one-bid leagues. We do have USC and Maryland atop the pecking order and Northwestern vs. Ohio State, but everything else comes from a mid-major or low-major. That doesn’t mean we are short on good games and some of these games matter a lot in the standings.

With 51 games in total and the first tip-off at 5 p.m. ET, let’s see what tonight’s card has in store.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Maine Black Bears (-1.5, 137.5) at Albany Great Danes

6:30 p.m. ET

Let’s start deep down the board in the America East Conference with a matchup between Maine and Albany. Maine won the first meeting 87-66 at home back on Jan. 11. That was a really interesting box score, as Albany was 17-of-25 on shots at the rim, had 15 offensive rebounds to just two for Maine, and still lost the game by 21. A big reason why is because Albany had 20 turnovers in the game, which was played to 71 possessions. The other reason is because Maine made 11 3-pointers to Albany’s five.

So even if Albany manages to have a big edge on the glass and also be as proficient at the rim as they were in the first meeting, I think Maine still has the upper hand because they’re better at forcing turnovers and shooting 3s. In conference play, the Black Bears are shooting 39.2% from 3 to lead the conference. Meanwhile, Albany is shooting just 27.8% from 3.

Both teams get to the rim at similar rates and allow a similar rate of shot attempts at the rim. That should cancel out, as it did in the first game when Maine was 16-of-21 to counteract a strong Albany effort. But the 18-point difference beyond the arc was a huge part of the equation and I’d expect the Black Bears to have an edge there again.

Maine is also the No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency team in conference play. My read on this one is that they’ll do better on the glass than they did and the 3-point difference makes all the difference as they look to bounce back after losing to Vermont for the second time this season.

Pick: Maine -1.5

Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (-2.5, 141.5) at Mercyhurst Lakers

7 p.m. ET

We’ll go even deeper for the next play, which comes from the Northeast Conference. Mercyhurst hosts Fairleigh Dickinson in search of the regular season sweep after a 67-60 win on the road back on Feb. 1. Once again, the 3-point difference between the two teams came into play a little bit, as Mercyhurst had a six-point edge in that department, but they also won the battle on the glass and shared the basketball more effectively.

Mercyhurst was only 10-of-21 at the rim in the first game, a number that I think could improve here. But, again, it’s the 3-point difference for me. The Lakers are shooting 35.7% from 3 in league play and Fairleigh Dickinson is shooting just 30.1%. I’m also getting the Lakers at home.

But, here’s another angle you won’t see on the stat sheet. Mercyhurst is ineligible for the NEC Tournament because they are transitioning from Division II. As a result, this home game against FDU and the home game in a week against Chicago State will be it for them. These are their tournament games. With a couple of losses last week, the Lakers can’t get to .500 for the season, as they are 13-16, but 15-16 in Year 1 is still a decent showing and I think they’d love to show well in these final two.

Pick: Mercyhurst +2.5

Portland State Vikings at Idaho State Bengals (-1.5, 140.5)

9 p.m. ET

To Pocatello we go for some Big Sky action between Portland State and Idaho State. I believe the wrong team is favored in this game, which is hardly a stretch to say with a short line of 1.5, but the Vikings are playing some very good basketball right now and Idaho State is mostly just plodding along.

Per Haslametrics, Portland State has climbed 28 spots in the last week, 60 spots in the last 30 days, and 108 spots from his preseason ranking. The Vikings are having a nice season under fourth-year head coach Jase Coburn and they’re a better version of Idaho State to me.

If we look at the conference-only metrics, Portland State is shooting better on 2s and just a little bit behind on 3s. Their adjusted offensive efficiency ranks behind Idaho State, largely because of the TO% difference between the two. The Vikings have a higher eFG% and are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the conference. Idaho State is the best.

However, Idaho State doesn’t maximize their chances like Portland State does. The Bengals are fifth in the nation in ORB%, but they are 285th in the nation in shot share on Close Twos. Why they aren’t just going back up with their ORebs is beyond my comprehension. Meanwhile, Portland State is second in the nation in shot share on Close Twos at 50.7%.

The Vikings won the first meeting between these two teams by 17 points. Idaho State had the offensive rebounding advantage and the teams were even in turnovers, but Portland State’s stronger shot selection won the game for them. I’m thinking that happens again tonight.

Pick: Portland State +1.5

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