Well over 100 teams will take the floor on the college basketball side of things tonight, as we’ve got 57 games to consider. Some major conferences are in action, but a lot of mid-major and low-major leagues play on Thursday nights. TV deals spread out a lot of the major-conference games, but a lot of tonight’s teams are either shown locally or only able to be seen on ESPN+.
We’ve seen a ton of upsets lately in college basketball, including a lot of them on the underdog’s home floor. Students are back in the gyms. Dynamics have changed. More familiarity between teams and personnel can breed more upsets. Teams have targets on their backs. Keep an eye on situational spots as well. One I missed yesterday is that Kansas just beat TCU in overtime on a buzzer beater, so maybe going all the way to Orlando against a jazzed-up UCF bunch wasn’t a great spot. Maybe Kansas isn’t all that great either, but I neglected to consider the situation in my handicap.
Unlike college football, where it seems like adults in their mid-20s are becoming more commonplace, college hoopers may be a little more susceptible to those types of things in harsh environments.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Towson Tigers (-5, 129.5)
7 p.m. ET
There are a lot of games on the slate tonight that are “pace wars”, where you have two teams that play contrasting styles of basketball. Stony Brook certainly moves at a quicker tempo than Towson, but still operates at a below-average pace relative to the median across college basketball.
The other thing that hurts Stony Brook offensively in this game in my estimation is that they have a shot share of just 24% on Close Twos, which is the second-lowest in the nation behind Charleston Southern per Bart Torvik. As a result, it should come as no surprise that the Seawolves rank 284th in the nation in 2P%.
However, they are not alone in terms of struggling inside the arc. Towson is actually 348th in the country in 2P% offense at just 44%.They’ve had a hard time from all areas on the floor, as the Tigers are also shooting just 31.1% from 3. Given that they play at the third-slowest pace in the nation per Torvik, it is tough for them to put up a lot of points. It doesn’t help that they also have a TO% over 20%, so that makes for a lot of wasted possessions.
Stony Brook doesn’t get to the line a lot and struggles on the offensive glass. For all of Towson’s offensive warts, they are in the top 150 in 2P% and 3P% defense. They do force teams into a lot of 3s, which Stony Brook might be comfortable with at 34.6% from deep, but the Seawolves are on the road here. In seven road/neutral games, they’re shooting 32.7% from 3 and 42.1% on 2s. They have played two top-20 teams, a top-40 team, and a top-90 team in those games, but they also had just .938 PPP against Northeastern last time out on the road.
I think both teams will struggle to score here in what should be a slow-paced game that I’m thinking will be somewhere around 64 or 65 possessions.
Pick: Under 129.5
Delaware Blue Hens (-7, 139) at Campbell Camels
7 p.m. ET
The CAA makes another appearance for me today with a look at Delaware and Campbell. This is another game that should be played to a low tempo, as Campbell ranks 344th in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Delaware is right around the national average. There are a few things I like about Campbell here, outside of the tempo likely coming into play for them as an underdog.
First, Campbell has been terrific on the glass this season. They are a top-20 team in ORB% and a top-50 team in ORB% against per Torvik. Second, Campbell and Delaware have an identical shot share on Close Twos at 44.7% each. Delaware is 0.9% better in FG%, but I do think Campbell will be able to work the ball inside and have extended possessions, as their pace and tempo numbers would suggest. Finally, Campbell is pushing teams out on defense, forcing them into a 3 on 41.3% of field goal attempts. Delaware is a solid offensive team and a decent shooting team, but this is a road game in a new venue, as Campbell is a first-year member of the CAA.
Campbell head coach Kevin McGeehan really spreads playing time around based on matchups and has been looking to see what works with his team throughout the season. I like that he’s flexible and can tailor his starting lineup and substitution rotations to what the other team is doing. I think we’ve got two solid coaches here, but I like the idea of a feeling-out process to condense things a bit in the first half.
I think Campbell can keep this close with their style of play.
Pick: Campbell +7
