College Basketball Best Bets Today:

From 20 games to 32 and from a lot of one-bid leagues to some of the big boys, as we hit the “Upgrade” button from Monday’s college basketball card to Tuesday’s. We’ve got some really good action from the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC tonight, as well as some interesting games from the Big East and Mountain West, plus a good one in the Atlantic Sun.

Most games have some measure of importance now, as seeding matters for the upcoming conference tournaments and the weak NCAA Tournament bubble means that any victory or loss could swing the balance of power there. That should create some good betting opportunities as the regular season keeps playing out.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

Loyola Chicago Ramblers at Davidson Wildcats (-2.5, 139.5)

7 p.m. ET

We start in the A-10 with Loyola Chicago ramblin’ on down the road to take on Davidson. The Wildcats have played the 14th-ranked strength of schedule in A-10 play and Loyola Chicago has played the second-toughest slate. That angle has found some success recently, especially when the stats and metrics line up as well. Davidson is 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite their strength of schedule. Not only do they not force turnovers, but they’re also 13th in the 15-team conference in 2P% defense and ninth in 3P% defense.

Also, they’re only shooting 32.9% from 3 despite facing some weaker teams in league play. This is a team that has to make jump shots to be effective because they are not a team that gets to the rim very often. That should be an area where the Ramblers have an advantage.

With that second-ranked SOS, Loyola Chicago is seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. A mild turnover margin discrepancy is part of it, but this is a team that is shooting 36.3% from 3 in league play to help offset some of that.

Recently, Loyola has losses to Dayton, George Mason, and Duquesne, as they’ve lost to more physical teams and much better defensive teams. When they’ve played weaker defenses, they’ve done really well on offense, including 1.286 and 1.125 points per possession in their last two games. I’d expect them to find offensive success in this one and for Davidson’s bad defensive numbers to be the difference.

Pick: Loyola Chicago +2.5

Illinois Fighting Illini at Wisconsin Badgers (-4, 161.5)

8:30 p.m. ET

One of tonight’s biggest games is in Madison between Illinois and Wisconsin. The Illini have been struggling lately. Haslametrics has a Momentum metric that is a measure of a team’s performance in the last 4-8 games vs. their overall season performance. Illinois ranks in the bottom 20 in Momentum. Wisconsin, meanwhile, ranks in the top 75, so they’re playing at a pretty good level right now.

In fact, Haslametrics has bumped Wisconsin into his top 10, moving up six spots in the last week and eight spots in the last 30 days. Illinois has fallen out of the top 10. Wisconsin is also third in his Paper Tiger Factor metric, meaning that they play up to superior competition and have played very well when stepping up in class. They are a top-10 team in his Record Quality metric.

Meanwhile, Illinois has just been a bully, ranking in the bottom 20 in Paper Tiger Factor, so they’ve beaten up on inferior teams. They’re in the mid-30s in Record Quality as a result.

Along with some of those metrics, I can’t get over how much better of a 3-point shooting team the home squad is in this game. A lot of things cancel out to some degree for these teams, but Wisconsin is shooting 5.5% better from 3 for the season and over 10% better from 3 in conference games.

The Badgers are also shooting nearly 80% from the free throw line in Big Ten games, a stat that could come into play here.

Note: DraftKings has -3.5 (-115), but everywhere else is -4, so I’ll grade at -4.

Pick: Wisconsin -4

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