College basketball best bets today
We’ve nearly doubled the available amount of college basketball games from Monday to Tuesday and have added teams that are more well-known. In fact, we go from 13/17 games on the “Added Board” to all 32 games being on the main board for tonight. I’ll handicap the card no matter what, but the college basketball best bets today come from a much larger sample size of games.
Before I launch into that, our Super Bowl Betting Guide: Pro Edition is out for VSiN Pro subscribers. Please check it out. We’ve got a lot of excellent features, plus picks, props, and predictions for the Big Game.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.
Here are three college basketball best bets for today.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-5.5, 148)
7 p.m. ET
What seemed like a promising start to the season for Northern Illinois went up in flames quickly. The Huskies started 5-1 and beat teams like App State, Georgia State, Little Rock, and DePaul, but they’ve won one game against a Division I opponent since. They just beat lowly Eastern Michigan by 10 at home to end a 10-game losing streak.
Defensively, this team is terrible. In terms of full-season ranks, NIU is 327th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 306th in eFG%, 334th in TO%, and 318th in 3P%. They rank poorly in most of those categories in conference play as well. Opponents are firing away at 38.2% from 3 and they are the worst defense in the 12-team conference by adjusted defensive efficiency, OREB% against, and FT Rate, as they trail a lot and have to foul.
It is my belief that Miami of Ohio is still underrated. They’ve played well in conference, going 5-5 to this point, but they have wins over Akron and Kent State recently, along with a close loss to Toledo. Big man Anderson Mirambeaux has made a ton of difference and has fallen short of double figures just twice in his 12 games.
I don’t expect NIU to have an answer for him or really anybody. The win over EMU ended a streak of seven straight games allowing at least 78 points. The Huskies are 10th in eFG% and 2P% offense in league play, so they just can’t keep up and I don’t think they will here.
Pick: Miami (OH) -5.5
Toledo Rockets (-11.5, 151) at Eastern Michigan Eagles
7 p.m. ET
Toledo has played the bully role well this season. In conference play, they’ve beaten Buffalo by 11, Northern Illinois by 16, Bowling Green by 16, and Western Michigan by 25. The only outlier was a loss to Central Michigan in a game where the Rockets couldn’t throw the ball in Lake Erie, losing 65-62 in a game where they had .855 points per possession and went 21-of-62 from the floor.
I expect them to find a lot of offensive success tonight against Eastern Michigan. The Rockets lead the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and 2P%. They are second in eFG% and TO%. They’re getting to the free throw line at a high rate and are getting whatever they want on the interior. They are shooting 35.8% from 3, but are only taking a 3 on 28.4% of their shots, so they’re working well on the inside.
Eastern Michigan has allowed opponents to shoot 56.8% on 2s, which is easily the worst defensive number in league play. The Eagles are also shooting just 25% on 3s and 48.8% on 2s. They are dead last in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, 3P%, and 2P%. Toledo has had a lot of defensive issues this season, but EMU can’t make shots.
We’ve also got the Rockets in a bounce back spot here after losing to Akron over the weekend and they let out frustration in a similar spot against NIU back on Jan. 23 with a 16-point win and 1.277 points per possession. I’m expecting something similar tonight.
Pick: Toledo -11.5
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston Cougars (-20.5, 128)
7 p.m. ET
Houston’s first run through the Big 12 has been mostly successful, as the Cougars own a 6-3 record and are clearly expected to make it 7-3 with a matchup against Oklahoma State. I’m not so sure this is a blowout of epic proportions as the line implies.
Obviously, as we know, Houston plays at a really slow tempo, so that requires them to be stunningly efficient on both sides of the ball to cover a number like this. They’ve been very efficient in most of their games, but they have allowed over a point per possession in four of their nine Big 12 games and three of those have been against entrenched members.
They gave up 1.037 PPP to BYU, who has been among the nation’s top-10 teams most of the season, but they just gave up 1.22 PPP to Kansas and needed overtime to knock off Texas two games ago. While Okie State isn’t on the level of either Texas or Kansas, they’ve played a bit better lately, with close losses to Kansas State and TCU to go with wins over West Virginia and Kansas State.
Their TO% metrics are skewed by the horrific game against Iowa State, as they’ve been under 20% in seven of their nine conference games. Maybe Houston forces a few more than most, but the Cougars are 12th in 2P% and 11th in eFG% in league play. The Cougars have an elite defense and maybe that’s enough, but a lot of their offensive metrics are concerning enough for me to take a shot here with Oklahoma State as one of the college basketball best bets today.
Pick: Oklahoma State +20.5
