College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We’ve got a robust offering of college basketball games today, as there are 52 matchups on the slate, beginning at 6 p.m. ET. We’ve got some marquee games, some “Friends & Family” games, and all sorts of action in between. It’s hard to believe that two months from today will be the first day of Elite Eight games. The season really, truly is flying by.

With that, let’s look at some of today’s top betting opportunities after poring through the day’s docket.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

UTSA Roadrunners at Florida Atlantic Owls (-9, 161.5)

7 p.m. ET

To the AAC we go here for UTSA and FAU. First-year head coach Austin Claunch seems to be making some progress with his team of late, as the Roadrunners have moved up 11 spots in Haslametrics’ rankings over the last week. FAU, meanwhile, has fallen 37 spots in the last 30 days, a byproduct of how poor this team is defensively.

In conference games, the Owls have really struggled. Opponents are shooting 39.3% from 3, a very important factor in this game with UTSA’s 44% 3P Rate and 36% 3P%. FAU has allowed 1.233, 1.033, .950, 1.169, 1.161, 1.144, and 1.272 points per possession in their seven conference clashes.

This is a game where the two teams have a big discrepancy in shot share on Close Twos, but I actually don’t hate that for UTSA because the rim is the only area where Florida Atlantic defends at a really high rate. I don’t think that the Owls can defend well enough here to cover this big of a spread, especially with a 29.4% 3P% on offense in league play. They’re not getting to the line very often and rank 10th in eFG% defense.

Lastly, FAU has had three games with a TO% over 20% in league play and now faces a UTSA bunch that ranks 51st in TO% on defense this season.

The trend line is on the decline for the Owls and I think we see that continue to play out here.

Pick: UTSA +9

Longwood Lancers (-1, 149.5) at Gardner-Webb Bulldogs

7 p.m. ET

We go deep down the board in the Big South Conference with a game between Longwood and Gardner-Webb. The Bulldogs rank 27th in Proximity per Haslametrics and the Lancers are 83rd. Proximity is “Shooting Proximity vs. the average opponent” for Haslametrics and a measure of where shots are taken. A 1.0 would be a dunk. A 3.0 would be a 3-pointer. So, basically, these are two teams well above the national average at getting to the rim.

In fact, Gardner-Webb is 13th in the nation in shot share on Close Twos at 47.1%. Longwood is 121st, but GW is 307th in the nation in shot share against. Longwood is 313th and also has allowed opponents to make 66.4% of their shot attempts at the rim.

I think both teams find tremendous success getting buckets at the tin. Also, Longwood is fifth in FT Rate and 304th in FT Rate against. Gardner-Webb is above the national average in FT Rate by 2.5% and below the national average on defense. So, we should get lots of high-percentage shot attempts and also the chance for points to be scored with the clock stopped.

Longwood’s high TO% on defense coupled with GW’s high TO% on offense may lead to some run-outs and easy scoring chances as well. We also have two teams that rank in the top 100 in ORB%. And, Longwood is 125th in adjusted tempo and Gardner-Webb is 81st. That means we should have a quickened pace here, too.

To me, those are a lot of factors pointing towards a high-scoring game. Longwood has played seven conference games so far and five have had at least 69 possessions. Those games have had 161, 161, 171, 162, and 134 points, with the most recent against a USC Upstate team that is among the worst in the nation on offense.

Gardner-Webb has played seven conference games and four have had at least 69 possessions, with 135, 172, 151 (lost 96-55), and 165 points. I think we get to at least 69 possessions here.

Pick: Over 149.5

Murray State Racers (-5, 133) at Evansville Aces

8 p.m. ET

Consistency has been an issue for Murray State over the course of the season, but they are facing an inferior opponent in what appears to be a favorable spot in this game. The Racers actually rank ninth in Haslametrics’ Away From Home rating, as they have conference road wins over Drake, Northern Iowa, and Southern Illinois among their best performances of the season.

Evansville is a team that is really, really light on depth. Even without sophomore guard Cameron Haffner last time out, the Aces only went basically six deep in their win over Valparaiso. That’s a Beacons team that I faded last night with a winner on Southern Illinois and I’ll look to do the same here tonight fading Evansville.

Haffner left six minutes into the loss to UIC a week ago and then missed the last game against Valpo. He’s a 37% 3-point shooter on an Evansville team shooting just 29.7% from 3. I couldn’t find anything definitive as to whether or not he’ll play tonight, but if nothing else, he’d be at less than 100%. The Racers are a strong defensive team on 3s regardless, so I think it will be tough for the Aces to make shots.

But, my favorite part of this handicap is that Murray State gets to the rim a lot and draws a lot of fouls. Four players for Evansville have played at least 68.6% of the minutes this season, so they are thin. Murray State is 16th in the nation in FT Rate, so they should be able to put some pressure on Evansville and force head coach David Ragland to either go deeper into his bench or play some guys in foul trouble that can’t be as aggressive on defense as he’d like.

I think that helps Murray State to the win and road cover here.

Pick: Murray State -5

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