College basketball best bets today
Conference tournaments are off to a crazy start with some major upsets in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament, including losses by the No. 1 and No. 3 seeds. In those win-or-go-home scenarios, some weird things can happen and it probably won’t be the last time we see something like that.
It’s been a tough start to March and a tough lesson was learned last night with Old Dominion and Texas State, which was Over the total before overtime even began. The first half total was 64.5 and the first half landed 66, but that was a lot closer. I’m not saying you can’t bet an Under in a full game, but I do feel like it’s going to be better to make a 1H play with the late-game fouling situations and the urgency of a one-and-done format.
Anyway, we’ve got 36 games today, so hopefully things will turn with the college basketball best bets today.
Keep an eye on our 2024 College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Guide with conference tourney previews added on the daily. Also, this article will keep running Monday-Saturday through the end of the regular season, so keep checking back for college basketball best bets today.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results and our college basketball home page for more CBB content.
Here are three college basketball best bets for today.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
TCU Horned Frogs (-5.5, 152.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers
7 p.m. ET
TCU heads to Morgantown in hopes of getting back on track with what should be a favorable matchup against the Mountaineers. The Horned Frogs won the first meeting on Feb. 12 by 16 points, as a lot of the things you would expect to see based on the stats played out according to plan.
TCU has a 20.8% TO% on defense that ranks 26th in the nation per Bart Torvik. West Virginia is below the national average by a full percent with an 18.2% TO%. TCU forced 19 turnovers in the first game, while WVU forced 11. West Virginia’s TO% in league play is actually 19.3% and TCU’s is 19%, so I wouldn’t expect anything all that different in this matchup.
I am a little surprised that TCU didn’t do better on the offensive glass, but they flexed their physicality to get inside, where they had 31 shot attempts at the rim compared to 17 for WVU. The Horned Frogs rank 50th with a 42.2% shot share on Close Twos and West Virginia is at 36%, which ranks in the 210s, so I anticipate TCU getting inside more frequently again.
The Horned Frogs are also stepping back in class here. They just lost to Baylor and BYU, a couple of top-20 teams. They’ve performed better against teams like West Virginia, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State, including some road wins over those teams. I think they get one here and Jamie Dixon can rally the troops to pick up a road win and cover in the road regular season finale.
Pick: TCU -5.5
Long Island Sharks at Merrimack Warriors (-15, 140)
7 p.m. ET
This is a special day for Merrimack basketball. Head coach Joe Gallo has done an excellent job with the Warriors and they’ve had some fine seasons as a Division I member to this point, but today marks the first NEC Tournament game in which the Warriors are actually eligible to go to the NCAA Tournament.
Merrimack has been the victim of the NCAA’s archaic transition rules, like a handful of teams, including Le Moyne in this conference, have to deal with now that the postseason has arrived. Merrimack will actually join the MAAC next season, you know they’d love nothing more than to win the NEC Tournament on the way out.
They begin with a LIU team that they just beat by 15 back on Feb. 17 at home. In fact, Gallo’s team had a 10-game winning streak until Sacred Heart snapped it in the regular season finale. Merrimack was 14-of-32 from 3 in that game, but still found a way to lose 89-85.
I don’t know if they are engaged for the full game, but I do like -8.5 in the first half. They’re at home and should be fully motivated to start this thing. I’d expect them to get off to a hot start, as they’ve been easily the best defensive team in the conference and have been much more efficient offensively at home.
Not all books have this one up, but DraftKings does at -120. It will be graded as such, but shop around and see if you can find lower vig or a better line.
Pick: Merrimack 1st Half -8.5 (-120)
Southern Indiana Screamin’ Eagles vs. Tennessee State Tigers (-3.5, 143.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
The first of two games tonight at the Ford Center in the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament features Southern Indiana and Tennessee State. I like this matchup for the favored Tigers for a few reasons. As you know, shot selection is always my starting point. Tennessee State had a higher shot share on Close Twos by 3% and a higher FG% by 6% during the regular season. They also had the slightly lower shot share against on Close Twos.
So, I think Tennessee State, in an unfamiliar venue, has the advantages as it pertains to getting to the rim. Southern Indiana also ranks 343rd in eFG% offense, as they simply don’t make shots, whether they are taking 2s or 3s. Tennessee State is 248th, which is well below the national average, but they are a top-100 defense by eFG%.
The Tigers finished the regular season at 18.1% in TO% on defense, while Southern Indiana was at 16.4%. Both teams turned the ball over a fair amount, so I could see Tennessee State with some extra possessions here.
This is a Tigers team that was actually third in eFG% offense in conference play and fourth in eFG% defense, while Southern Indiana was eighth and sixth, respectively. The teams split during the regular season, with Southern Indiana having 76 free throw attempts across the two games. I would hope that OVC officials would let the teams play a little in this setting.
I just find Tennessee State the better team on both ends of the floor and the better-coached team. Southern Indiana’s losses to Lindenwood and SEMO State at home to end the regular season were really ugly data points.
Pick: Tennessee State -3.5
