College basketball projections and best bets
We have a great slate of games on both the men’s and women’s hardwood today, so there is ample opportunity to make some profit, which is the name of the game. I’m glad to see a full slate of women’s games today after the 4-game hors d’oeuvres we were served yesterday, so follow me on X (@TShoeIndex) to cash in on the inevitable multi-game betting card I’ll have today, as we approach our 100th women’s hoops win of the season. Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.
These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring a few times per week on VSiN.com now that we’ve gotten through bowl season, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on.
As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors.
Here are the TSI projections for today, January 17th:
How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.
Men’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Appalachian State | Georgia State | 10.7 | 142.8 |
| Arizona | Southern California | 21.9 | 160.0 |
| Arizona State | UCLA | 2.1 | 129.2 |
| Arkansas State | Southern Mississippi | 0.9 | 150.6 |
| Army | Colgate | -7.0 | 128.7 |
| Auburn | Vanderbilt | 17.7 | 144.2 |
| Belmont | Northern Iowa | 0.5 | 153.4 |
| Boston University | Bucknell | 4.2 | 131.6 |
| Bradley | Southern Illinois | -0.7 | 137.0 |
| Central Florida | Texas | -2.5 | 139.4 |
| Chattanooga | Mercer | -0.8 | 138.8 |
| Connecticut | Creighton | 2.4 | 146.6 |
| Davidson | Fordham | -0.9 | 147.1 |
| DePaul | Providence | -13.3 | 138.6 |
| Detroit Mercy | Robert Morris | -15.4 | 143.7 |
| Drake | Illinois State | 8.0 | 139.8 |
| East Carolina | North Texas | -11.4 | 130.0 |
| East Tennessee State | Wofford | -3.8 | 150.0 |
| Evansville | Valparaiso | 7.8 | 141.5 |
| Florida State | Miami (FL) | -7.8 | 154.9 |
| Furman | Virginia Military Institute | 9.7 | 160.9 |
| Gardner-Webb | Radford | -8.6 | 144.2 |
| High Point | Presbyterian | 10.0 | 154.5 |
| Holy Cross | Lafayette | -4.8 | 132.2 |
| Houston | Texas Tech | 15.0 | 132.3 |
| Illinois-Chicago | Murray State | 2.8 | 139.0 |
| IUPUI | Purdue Fort Wayne | -23.7 | 152.1 |
| Kentucky | Mississippi State | 6.2 | 156.1 |
| Lehigh | Navy | -5.0 | 143.1 |
| Longwood | South Carolina Upstate | 7.6 | 138.5 |
| Louisiana | Texas State | 4.1 | 137.4 |
| Louisiana State | Mississippi | 1.0 | 147.2 |
| Louisville | North Carolina | -23.2 | 153.6 |
| Loyola (IL) | Massachusetts | 0.1 | 148.2 |
| Maryland | Northwestern | -2.6 | 133.6 |
| Nebraska | Rutgers | 1.8 | 136.6 |
| Nevada | San Diego State | -3.8 | 141.5 |
| Oakland | Youngstown State | 2.9 | 149.4 |
| Oklahoma | West Virginia | 16.0 | 142.6 |
| Rhode Island | St. Bonaventure | -5.2 | 145.1 |
| The Citadel | UNC Greensboro | -10.1 | 140.1 |
| Tulane | UAB | 5.9 | 165.5 |
| Tulsa | UTSA | 10.8 | 155.4 |
| Virginia | Virginia Tech | 2.7 | 128.4 |
Bets:
UNC Greensboro/The Citadel Over 132.5
Tulane +2.5
Women’s
| Team | Team | TSI | TSI O/U |
| Air Force | Colorado State | -16.1 | 131.4 |
| Akron | Bowling Green State | -7.3 | 130.6 |
| American | Loyola (MD) | 5.8 | 125.0 |
| Arkansas State | South Alabama | 8.0 | 127.2 |
| Army | Colgate | -17.9 | 125.1 |
| Ball State | Central Michigan | 18.1 | 136.3 |
| Boise State | San Jose State | 6.3 | 121.1 |
| Boston University | Bucknell | 7.6 | 120.3 |
| Brigham Young | Oklahoma State | -10.1 | 138.7 |
| Buffalo | Northern Illinois | 4.8 | 131.9 |
| Butler | St. John’s (NY) | -8.9 | 115.9 |
| Charlotte | Tulane | 7.3 | 129.6 |
| Cleveland State | Wright State | 9.4 | 141.9 |
| Connecticut | Seton Hall | 14.8 | 134.3 |
| Davidson | Richmond | 1.8 | 131.5 |
| Dayton | George Washington | -3.9 | 124.8 |
| Duquesne | St. Bonaventure | 12.4 | 136.7 |
| East Carolina | Rice | 7.6 | 126.1 |
| Eastern Michigan | Miami (OH) | 2.9 | 116.8 |
| Fordham | Rhode Island | -17.5 | 124.2 |
| Gardner-Webb | Radford | -8.0 | 132.6 |
| George Mason | Saint Louis | 18.8 | 145.4 |
| Georgetown | Providence | 0.7 | 109.0 |
| High Point | Presbyterian | 2.0 | 124.6 |
| Holy Cross | Lafayette | 13.2 | 114.1 |
| Houston | West Virginia | -17.5 | 140.3 |
| Illinois | Rutgers | 15.6 | 137.9 |
| Indiana | Minnesota | 7.4 | 134.0 |
| Iowa State | Texas Tech | 2.2 | 134.6 |
| Kansas State | TCU | 8.3 | 126.3 |
| Kent State | Toledo | 0.2 | 126.6 |
| Lehigh | Navy | 15.2 | 145.6 |
| Longwood | South Carolina Upstate | -1.4 | 131.6 |
| Loyola (IL) | Massachusetts | 4.5 | 130.9 |
| Marquette | Villanova | 3.7 | 133.1 |
| Maryland | Ohio State | -2.7 | 149.0 |
| Memphis | Wichita State | 3.6 | 134.3 |
| Michigan | Nebraska | -3.5 | 132.1 |
| Michigan State | Northwestern | 34.9 | 152.5 |
| Nevada | Utah State | 6.9 | 129.6 |
| Nevada-Las Vegas | San Diego State | 17.9 | 144.5 |
| New Mexico | Wyoming | -4.6 | 121.7 |
| North Texas | Southern Methodist | 0.4 | 139.7 |
| Northern Kentucky | Robert Morris | -0.7 | 133.6 |
| Ohio | Western Michigan | -3.8 | 131.3 |
| UNC Asheville | Winthrop | 5.4 | 110.4 |
