Final Four Best Bets
Most assume Connecticut and Purdue will win in Saturday’s national semifinals, setting up a classic big-man showdown between the Huskies’ Donovan Clingan and the Boilermakers’ Zach Edey for the NCAA championship on Monday. Assuming the favorites advance is disrespectful to the underdogs. I almost always respect the ‘dogs, especially when the point spreads are big and the stakes are high. While expecting the favorites to prevail, I suspect at least one will struggle in the two Final Four matchups in Glendale, Arizona, and could make for some good Final Four best bets.
UConn and Purdue, the top teams in college basketball for most of the season, are so tough to beat mostly because the 7-foot-2 Clingan and 7-4 Edey are so dominant. If they go head to head, it would be a Bill Russell-Wilt Chamberlain type of clash. Chamberlain once famously said, “Nobody roots for Goliath.”
The defending NCAA champion Huskies and the 300-pound Edey are two Goliaths, and that’s the matchup most are rooting to see in a Monday night basket-brawl.
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Purdue Boilermakers (-9)
DJ Burns Jr. is 6-9 and a burly 275 pounds, but he’s giving up seven inches and won’t be able to contend with Edey’s hooks and short jumpers in the paint. Burns could push Edey a few feet further from the basket to make those shots more difficult. Will foul trouble become a factor for either big man? Burns will get help from 6-10 Mohamed Diarra. Everyone who attempts to defend Edey one-on-one gets in foul trouble sooner or later, so the Wolfpack seem likely to double-team Edey on several touches and force the Boilermakers’ guards to make 3-point shots.
Purdue, the nation’s top 3-point shooting team (40.8%), made only 3 of 15 3-pointers in a regional final against Tennessee yet still won by six points because Edey scored 40. The Boilermakers should pull away if their primary perimeter shooters — Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Lance Jones and Mason Gillis — get hot from long range.
NC State has won nine straight elimination games, including five in five days in the ACC tournament, to get here, and what that means is you throw out the team’s body of work from November through February. This is a different, more confident team. The Wolfpack took a 15-point home loss to Duke on March 4 before turning around and beating the Blue Devils in the next two meetings. Burns’ crafty low-post play and lead guard DJ Horne make this underdog dangerous, especially if the Boilermakers don’t bring their ‘A’ game.
Trends show double-digit seeds that go deep into the tournament hit the end of the road now. Teams seeded No. 9 or worse are 0-9 straight up and 3-6 ATS in the national semis. Maybe that’s bad news for 11th-seeded NC State, but no trend is bulletproof. Purdue is probably going to sweat this one out — Edey might have to win it at the free-throw line — yet should prevail in a close game.
Final Four Best Bet(s): NC State +9 and Over 146
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Connecticut Huskies (-11.5)
In late February, the Crimson Tide got rolled 117-95 in a lopsided loss at Kentucky. No team with such a poor defensive efficiency ranking (No. 105, per Kenpom.com) is supposed to still be alive in the tournament, but Alabama ranks No. 3 in offensive efficiency and can ride a wave of 3-point shooting success (41.4% in four tournament games). Expect the Tide to launch about 40 3s in this game because attacking Clingan at the rim is not the smart approach, as Illinois found out in a regional final blowout.
Simply put, Alabama will be on the wrong end of another UConn blowout unless point guard Mark Sears is sensational and the team sinks at least 12 3s. The closest comp to this matchup was Alabama’s 92-86 loss to Purdue in Toronto on Dec. 9. The Tide shot 19-for-46 from 3 and Sears scored 35 points, and that still wasn’t quite enough.
The Huskies have survived two terrible 3-point shooting outings in this tournament — 3-for-22 versus Northwestern and 3-for-17 versus Illinois — due to being so solid in every other facet of the game. Clingan should get almost anything he wants around the rim and will put up a big point total against an Alabama team that’s weak defensively.
UConn is on an unprecedented postseason run, winning 10 straight NCAA Tournament games by double digits, so there’s a definite fear factor in fading the reigning champs. I hate to bet against the Huskies, so this will be a smaller play taking the inflated number, and expect to cash a 14-1 futures ticket on UConn that I placed in early January.
Final Four Best Bets: Alabama +12; UConn -195 to win the championship.
