Continuing my series for the NCAA men’s tournament, here is the key info for Saturday’s Final Four round games using the data from my Round-by-Round and Conference Trends articles in the VSiN Bracket Mania Betting Guide. The combined point spreads of the games are higher than any other time in this round since before my 25-year-old database commenced. Does it mean we’ll see two blowouts on Saturday, or will the underdogs give it a good run? Let’s see what the trends have to say:

Final Four Games

•  In the Final Four Round, outright winning teams own a record of 35-7-2 ATS (83.3%) since 2001, although most recently, San Diego State did beat Florida Atlantic in a 2023 clash without covering. (ON BOTH OUTRIGHT WINNERS)

 

•  Final Four #1 seeds are 17-5 SU and 12-9-1 ATS (57.1%) since 2001 when not matched against another #1 seed. (ON CONNECTICUT -12, PURDUE –9)

•  Final Four favorites of 5 points or more are on a solid surge of 19-3 SU and 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) over the last 24 years. (ON CONNECTICUT -12, PURDUE –9)

•  On totals, the last seven Final Four games that had posted numbers of 130 or less went Under, producing just 112.2 combined PPG on average. In all other games, totals are 24-15-2 Over (61.5%) in the Finals Four since ’99. (OVER 160 ALA-CON, OVER 146 NCST-PUR)

• Five of the last six semifinal games all went Over the total, extending a string of 12-5-1 Over (70.6%) in the last nine tournaments. (OVER 160 ALA-CON, OVER 146 NCST-PUR)

•  Bettors have been sharp in moving lines for the Final Four games since 2015, going 11-0 SU and 7-4 ATS (63.6%) in games that have seen the point spread shift off the opener. (ON CONNECTICUT -12, NC STATE +9)

•  Eight of the last nine Final Four games that have seen an opening total moved downward through the week until tip-off have gone ended up going Over the total (88.9%). (OVER 160 ALA-CON)

ACC

  • Over the last three NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 33-13 SU and 33-12-1 ATS (73.3%). (ON NC STATE +9)
  • ACC teams have been most successful in the Final Four Round, going 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%) since 2001. (ON NC STATE +9)
  • ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 19-8-2 ATS (70.3%) since 2012. (ON NC STATE +9)

Big East

  • Top two seeded (#1 seed & #2 seed) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 26-6 SU and 23-9 ATS (71.9%) in the NCAAs since 2016. (ON CONNECTICUT -12)
  • Teams from the Big East Conference have been highly reliable double-digit favorites in the NCAAs since 2007, going 43-3 SU and 31-15 ATS (67.4%). (ON CONNECTICUT -12)
  • Favorites are 48-19 ATS (71.6%) in the last 67 Big East NCAA tourney games, including 20-5 ATS the last two years. (ON CONNECTICUT -12)

Big Ten

  • In tourney games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 21-34 SU and 22-31-2 ATS (41.5%) since 2017. (AGAINST PURDUE -9)

SEC

  • The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 44-42 SU and 33-53 ATS (38.4%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tourney. (AGAINST ALABAMA +12)
  • Underdogs are 50-29 ATS (63.3%) in the last 79 SEC NCAA tourney games overall. (ON ALABAMA +12).
  • The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 18-24 ATS (42.9%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 29-12-1 (70.7%) rate. (AGAINST ALABAMA +12 – UNDER 160 ALA-PUR)

(671) ALABAMA vs. (672) CONNECTICUT
* CONNECTICUT won the only recent head-to-head meeting with Alabama in November 2022. That game was also a neutral court contest, in Portland, OR, and the Huskies (+1.5) came away with an 82-67 decision.

(673) NC STATE vs. (674) PURDUE
* NC STATE and PURDUE have met three times since 2004, with the Boilermakers holding a 2-1 SU and 1-1-1 ATS edge. Underdogs were 2-0-1 in the three tilts. In the most recent meeting in December 2021, Purdue (-15) won 82-72 in a neutral court contest in Brooklyn, NY.

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