Tennessee vs. Purdue March Madness Preview and Prediction
In a No. 2 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament Midwest Region, the Tennessee Volunteers face the Purdue Boilermakers in Elite Eight action.
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How to Watch Tennessee vs. Purdue
When: 2:20 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 31st
Where: Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI
Watch: CBS
Odds for Tennessee vs. Purdue
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Purdue -3
Total: 148
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Tennessee vs. Purdue Matchup
Midwest Region No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee is always an elite defensive team, and this year’s group is top five in adjusted defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes has always been able to count on his guys to be tough as nails on that end of the floor. The difference with this year’s group is that the team is very good offensively. Barnes added Northern Colorado transfer Dalton Knecht in the transfer portal, and the senior is a threat to put up 20 every night. And his ability to shoot the 3-ball has completely opened things up for his teammates. The sky’s the limit now for a Tennessee team that made the Sweet 16 last year and returned a majority of those rotation players. Perhaps Barnes will exorcize his March demons and get back to the Final Four. The Vols did beat a very good Creighton team in the Sweet 16.
Midwest Region No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers
Everybody is quick to get their jokes off about Purdue, as last year’s Boilermakers became the second team in NCAA tournament history to lose a 1-16 game. But Purdue has proven that they deserved to be taken very seriously in this tournament. The Boilermakers still have 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, the best player in college basketball. And Purdue has snipers surrounding him, as the Boilermakers are first in the nation when it comes to 3P% this season. Matt Painter has still never made it to the Final Four, but he’s one game away. And the reality is that he was always going to get there eventually, as giving yourself chances is half the battle. But this might be his best team yet, as this Boilermakers team is loaded and plays the right way on both ends of the floor. And Purdue is coming off a very impressive win over a very good Gonzaga team.
Tennessee vs. Purdue Preview & Prediction
Well, something is going to have to give here. Either Rick Barnes will lead a team to the Final Four for the first time since 2003 or Matt Painter will get Purdue there for the first time in his career. But the reality is that both of these guys are excellent coaches, and they each have impressive teams this year. This season, Tennessee is eighth in the nation in Bart Torvik’s power ratings and Purdue is up at third. So, both of these teams are worthy of moving on and potentially even winning a national championship.
The interesting thing about this matchup is that we already saw it earlier in the year. These teams met in the Maui Invitational, with Purdue earning a 71-67 win over Tennessee. And while it’s very difficult to beat a great team twice in once season, there was something very concerning about that game for the Volunteers. Tennessee is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to defending the 3-point line, and the team showed that off in Hawaii. The Volunteers held the Boilermakers to just 4 for 15 from 3. However, that wasn’t enough for Tennessee to earn a victory. And that’s especially alarming considering Purdue also went 29 for 48 from the free throw line in that game.
The Boilermakers are second in the nation in adjusted offensive rating and first in 3P% (41.0%). So, the Boilermakers should shoot a little better this time around, even with the Vols defending like hell on the perimeter. And Purdue shot 72.0% from the charity stripe this season, so another 60.4% at the line feels unrealistic. Tennessee also happens to lack the size required to stop Zach Edey around the basket. The Volunteers are tough as nails and will compete their butts off, but Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka are both giving up a lot of height to the Boilermakers star. So, Edey should be able to finish around the basket and get his shooters open looks when the help comes.
Of course, Tennessee can also stand to improve on the results of the first meeting, as the Vols shot 33.3% from the floor and 26.7% from 3 in that game. However, the Boilermakers have players that can give Dalton Knecht trouble on the perimeter. And Tennessee doesn’t exactly have many other offensive options.
Purdue has proven to be vulnerable in the Edey era, but the Boilermakers have mostly had trouble with teams that speed up the tempo and launch a lot of 3s. That’s unfortunately not what the Volunteers want to do. They want to make this a half-court game, but they don’t have anybody that can dominate in a half-court setting like Edey. The big man is one of the most dominant players in the history of college basketball. That said, this feels like we’re heading towards a sweep for Purdue. And the point spread is small enough that the Boilermakers should cover if they win.
Estimated Score: Purdue 74.9 – Tennessee 72.2
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