Alabama vs. UConn March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 4 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament between the West Region champion and the East Region champion, the Alabama Crimson Tide face the Connecticut Huskies in Final Four action.
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How to Watch Alabama vs. UConn
When: 8:49 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 6th
Where: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ
Watch: CBS
Odds for Alabama vs. UConn
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: UConn -11
Total: 161.5
DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Alabama vs. UConn Matchup
West Region No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide
Nate Oats is still the head coach of the Crimson Tide, so they naturally have a top-five offense in college basketball. Alabama plays at one of the fastest paces in the nation, and the team launches a ton of 3s — and drills them at a high clip. Mark Sears has been as good as any guard in the country this year, and he’s a player that people could fall in love with in the tournament. The issue with Alabama is that the defense is an absolute nightmare. The Tide don’t even crack the nation’s top 100 on that end of the floor. So, they’ll be vulnerable if exposed to a team that can get the job done on both offensively and defensively, but it hasn’t happened yet and they’re still alive.
East Region No. 1 UConn Huskies
Last year’s championship-winning UConn team finished the season third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. This year’s Huskies team has a nearly identical statistical profile. That gives UConn legitimate hope that it can be the first team to go back-to-back since Florida did it in 2006 and 2007. The Huskies are as well coached as any team in the nation, with Dan Hurley being a master motivator and an Xs-and-Os tactician. UConn also has two potential lottery picks in Stephon Castle and 7-foot-2 big man Donovan Clingan. On top of that, the Huskies have experienced players like Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban.
Alabama vs. UConn Preview & Prediction
If the UConn Huskies can find a way to hold Alabama to 58 or fewer points, that will be one of the most impressive defensive performances of the NCAA Tournament. To this point, the Huskies have allowed 52 to Stetson, San Diego State, and Illinois, while Northwestern has the high mark at 58 points. Alabama scored 58 points in the second half of their first-round win over Charleston and 54 points in the second half of the Elite Eight win over Clemson.
The Crimson Tide were 16-of-36 from 3 against Clemson and even started the game 1-of-11 from 3 before being unable to miss in the second half. UConn’s four opponents to this point have made 18 3-pointers total. The Huskies have allowed .752, .897, .830, and .753 points per possession in this year’s tourney, after allowing .960, .878, .930, .749, .923, and .859 PPP during last year’s dominant run to the National Championship.
It sure feels like if any team is going to topple the Huskies, it would have to be one like Alabama. The Crimson Tide play at a heightened tempo and take a ton of 3s. The defensive concerns for Alabama are always going to be there and UConn is plenty efficient offensively, but it simply comes down to whether or not Nate Oats’ team can shoot themselves to an upset win. Frankly, it seems like the only way UConn loses is if a team is able to do that.
It is scary, though, that UConn beat Northwestern going 3-of-22 from 3 and beat Illinois by 25 going 3-of-17 from 3. As I wrote about before the UConn/Illinois game, Dan Hurley has sufficiently motivated his team every step of the way. The Huskies seem to have a point to prove in every game. Surely he’ll find some ammo here, but this is just the fifth time in the last 50 years of Final Fours that we’ve seen a double-digit spread.
The task at hand for Alabama is a big one and they’re going to have to shoot the lights out and then some to pull the upset based on what we’ve seen over the last 10 NCAA Tournament games for UConn.
Estimated Score: UConn 85, Alabama 76
For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.
