Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Thursday’s betting action be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast at 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for Thursday’s College Basketball slate…
7 p.m. ET: Florida Atlantic at UAB (-1, 147.5)
Florida Atlantic (21-1, ranked 19th) has won 20-straight games and just took down Western Kentucky 70-63 but failed to cover as 12.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, UAB (15-7) has won two straight games and just crushed Rice 70-52, easily covering as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened at a pick’em. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. If Florida Atlantic is ranked and has such a sparkling record, why is this line a pick’em? Shouldn’t FAU be favored? After opening at a pick’em, several shops have moved to UAB -1 at home, signaling pro money backing the fishy home team. UAB has value as an unranked home favorite against a ranked opponent. These teams are 20-10 ATS (67%) this season. UAB also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (7-13-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (15-4-1). UAB is only receiving 51% of bets but 78% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. UAB is 11-2 at home this season.
7 p.m. ET: Elon at Stony Brook (-2.5, 133.5)
Elon (3-19) just snapped an 11-game losing skid with a 72-58 win over Drexel, winning outright as 6-point home dogs. Similarly, Stony Brook (8-14) just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 71-66 win over Hampton, winning outright as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with Stony Brook listed as a 3-point home favorite. Pros aren’t outsmarting themselves on this one. They’re laying the points with the home favorite, steaming Stony Brook up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops are inching closer to -4. Short home favorites -4 or less with a line move in their favor are 126-73 (63%) straight up this season, producing a 7% ROI. Ken Pom has Stony Brook winning by four points (69-65). He also has Stony Brook ranked higher (323 vs 333). Stony Brook is 5-4 at home this season. Elon is 0-10 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: Loyola Marymount at BYU (-4.5, 143)
Loyola Marymount (16-7) has won four straight games and just brushed aside Pepperdine 84-70, covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, BYU (14-10) has dropped three straight games and just fell to St. Mary’s 57-56 but covered as 6.5-point home dogs. This line opened with BYU listed as a 3-point home favorite. Pros have laid the points with BYU, steaming the Cougars up from -3 to -4.5. Short home favorites -5 or less in conference play with a line move in their favor are 94-76 ATS (55%) this season. BYU is also a buy-low value play coming off three losses while Loyola Marymount is a sell-high play coming off four straight wins. Ken Pom has BYU winning by four points (72-68). He also has BYU ranked higher (80 vs 86). BYU is 9-3 at home this season. Loyola Marymount is 3-4 on the road.
