Top 10 college basketball games for November 6
In March, the sports betting world revolves around college basketball, but those who only casually observe the games over the next four months will miss a lot. It pays to start paying attention today because this is Monday madness.
The opening day of the college hoops season serves up 113 games on a betting smorgasbord. The closest thing to a marquee matchup is Kansas State-USC at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and most of the high-profile nonconference showdowns are coming during Thanksgiving week, but the sheer volume of wagering opportunities today is unmatched.
After countless hours of researching teams in the offseason, I’m not ready for everything that will happen on opening day. Oddsmakers are not prepared either.
“I don’t know if anyone can really say they are ready because there are 350 teams and 100-plus games on Monday,” Circa Sports oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich said. “I gave it the old college try to get ready. You do the best you can. You learn a lot in the first couple weeks, obviously. Your power ratings could move five, six or seven points. I’ll make quick adjustments.”
VSiN has a team of handicappers working around the clock on college hoops — it helped to turn back the clock Sunday to gain an extra hour for prep work — and our College Basketball Betting Guide is available to get you up to speed on the fast-breaking action.
Greg “Hoops” Peterson breaks down all the games every day on his Coast-to-Coast Hoops podcast. Adam Burke will write picks columns Monday through Saturday each week on VSIN.com. Wes Reynolds and I will cover as much of the court as possible on our weeknight show VSiN Tonight. Tim Murray hosts a college hoops podcast. There will be more, a lot more, and this is just the beginning.
After scouting the Monday madness schedule, here are 10 highlights:
Georgia-Oregon – The first game of the season is listed as 767-768 on the betting rotation, and it’s imperative to reference rotation numbers in college hoops to easily find the games. The Bulldogs and Ducks meet at 1:30 p.m. (PT) at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Georgia is picked to finish near the bottom of the SEC. Oregon, a 5-point favorite, will be one of the top five teams in the Pac-12 and features 6-foot-11 senior N’Faly Dante. The Ducks should cover, though I’m not inclined to lay many points early in the season and prefer to hunt for live ‘dogs.
Northern Arizona at Connecticut — The defending NCAA champions are 25.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings, against a mediocre Big Sky Conference opponent. The Huskies lost three stars — center Adama Sanogo, guard Jordan Hawkins and forward Andre Jackson Jr. — from their title team yet still will be contenders thanks to 7-2 center Donovan Clingan, senior guard Tristen Newton and forward Alex Karaban. UConn coach Danny Hurley added Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer and freshman point guard Stephon Castle, a five-star recruit.
Samford at Purdue — Ken Pomeroy has ratings on 362 teams on his analytics website Kenpom.com, and the Boilermakers open the season rated No. 1. Zach Edey, a 7-4, 300-pound center, is the reigning national Player of the Year, but he’ll probably fall short of last season’s averages (22.3 ppg, 12.9 rpg) in the first game. Purdue, a 19-point favorite against the second-best team from the Southern Conference, should be focused on getting other players more involved in a lopsided game. Edey Under 22.5 points looks like a good prop play at DraftKings.
Iona at College of Charleston — Tobin Anderson coached 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson to an upset of Purdue in the NCAA Tournament and then landed the Iona job to replace Rick Pitino. The Gaels return only one player, 7-foot senior Osborn Shema, from a 27-win team.
Niagara at Notre Dame — After coaching Penn State to the Big Ten tournament title game, where the Nittany Lions lost to Purdue, Micah Shrewsberry takes over a Fighting Irish team that finished 11-21 and lost five starters. Shrewsberry was a great hire, but he needs to rebuild and find scorers for one of the ACC’s worst teams. Sharp bettors often find the most value in betting totals, and the total on this game has dropped from 130 to 126.
Arkansas State at Wisconsin — The Badgers return five starters, including point guard Chucky Hepburn and big men Steven Crowl and Tyler Wahl, from a 20-win team. Wisconsin will be a sleeper team that can challenge Purdue and Michigan State in the Big Ten title race. The Badgers are 14.5-point favorites against the Red Wolves, who are predicted to finish in the bottom half of the Sun Belt Conference.
Fairfield at Boston College — Moving down to 829-830 on the betting rotation, there has been a big move on the home favorite. Boston College opened -10 and is now -14. VSiN contributor Aaron Moore, who focuses on small conferences, said last week he was laying 10 with the Eagles and noted that Fairfield recently “blew out the coaching staff.” Jay Young resigned as Stags coach on Oct. 16.
New Mexico State at Kentucky — On paper, Kentucky coach John Calipari has a team with a high ceiling. Dominant power forward Oscar Tshiebwe is gone, but Calipari brings back senior guard Antonio Reeves and brings in a touted recruiting class with guards DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards and 7-footer Aaron Bradshaw. The Wildcats are too often paper tigers, but I’ll resist betting against them as 16-point favorites in the opener. This is not the New Mexico State program you remember. The Aggies won only nine games last season and return no starters.
James Madison at Michigan State — The Spartans open the season No. 1 in my power ratings. Tom Izzo is coaching a loaded roster — five of the top six scorers return from a 21-win team that reached the Sweet 16 — led by fifth-year senior guard Tyson Walker. However, Izzo’s teams often start slowly and peak late, so do not lay the 16.5 points against the Dukes, a good team from the Sun Belt.
Akron at South Dakota State — This is one of Monday’s top matchups. The Zips, picked to win the Mid-American Conference, are led by senior stars Ali Ali and Enrique Freeman. The Jackrabbits, picked to win the Summit League, follow the lead of star guard Zeke Mayo. I bet Akron (869 on the rotation) as a 1.5-point underdog.
Best Bets
The temptation to bet several games is always there on opening day, but it’s better to watch and learn about teams, so these plays (using Circa, DraftKings, South Point and Westgate SuperBook lines) are half-unit wagers:
(869) Akron +1.5 over South Dakota State
(879) USC -3 over Kansas State
(891) Cal State Northridge +22 over Stanford
(305033) Delaware State +20 over Penn State
