Today we have a smaller than usual College Basketball slate on tap with only 16-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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6:30 p.m. ET: Mount St. Mary’s at Niagara (-1.5, 135.5)

Mount St. Mary’s (13-10) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Iona 70-67 in overtime and failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. On the other hand, Niagara (10-14) has won three of their last four and just dismissed Canisius 71-60, covering as 8.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Niagara listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have quietly leaned toward Niagara laying short home chalk, as the Purple Eagles are being juiced up -1.5 (-115) and even creeping up to -2 at some shops. At DraftKings, Niagara is taking in 61% of spread bets but a whopping 90% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Savvy bettors looking to follow the sharp move but also pay up for some added security in the event of a close game might prefer a Niagara moneyline play at -130.

Niagara has the better offensive efficiency (282nd vs 307th), effective field goal percentage (52% vs 50%), three-point shooting (34% vs 33%) and free-throw shooting (74% vs 73%). Niagara also takes better care of the ball, ranking 259th in turnover percentage compared to 353rd for Mount St. Mary’s.

Niagara also has fishy buy-low value as a favorite with a losing record against a sell-high dog with a winning record.

7 p.m. ET: Marist at Siena (-2.5, 130.5)

Marist (16-5) has dropped two straight and just came up short against Iona 75-71, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Siena (11-13) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Rider 61-59 and losing outright as 2-point road favorites.

This line opened with Siena listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is a below .500 team favored over a team with a sparkling won-loss record? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 58% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing road dog Marist. However, despite the majority of bets taking Marist we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Siena -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Siena at home.

At DraftKings, Siena is only receiving 42% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. Ken Pom has Siena winning by two points (66-64). As a result, pros have specifically targeted Siena on the moneyline (-145). At DraftKings, Siena is receiving 57% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pro action playing Siena to win straight up.

Siena has the better offensive efficiency (264th vs 302nd) and free-throw shooting (72% vs 68%). The Saint also have fishy buy-low value as a favorite with a losing record against a sell-high dog with a winning record.

8 p.m. ET: UCLA (-1.5, 138.5) at Indiana

UCLA (18-7) just saw their seven-game win streak come to an end, falling to Illinois 83-78 but covering as 7.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, Indiana (15-10) just snapped their five-game losing skid with a 71-67 upset win over Michigan State, winning outright as 11.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with UCLA listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. Sharps have quietly sided with UCLA, as the Bruins are being juiced up -1.5 (-115) and even inching up to -2 at some shops. At DraftKings, UCLA is taking in 63% of spread bets but a whopping 93% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy wiseguy action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Ken Pom has UCLA winning by two points (71-69). As a result, pros have specifically targeted UCLA on the moneyline (-130). At Circa, the Bruins are only taking in 33% of moneyline bets but a massive 94% of moneyline dollars, a notable wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of UCLA winning straight up.

UCLA has the better offensive efficiency (44th vs 65th) and defensive efficiency (12th vs 48th). The Bruins also have the superior effective field goal percentage (53% vs 52%), three-point shooting (35% vs 32%) and take better care of the ball (65th in turnover percentage compared to 185th for Indiana). The Bruins rank first in the country at forcing turnovers. The Hoosiers rank 276th.

The Bruins have buy-low value as a short road favorite off a loss against a sell-high home dog in a “let down” spot after a big upset win over a heated rival.

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