Today a new week begins with a 20-game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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8 p.m. ET: Northwestern State at Lamar (-3.5, 130.5)

Northwestern State (9-10) has won two straight and just beat Stephen F. Austin 57-54 in overtime, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Lamar (11-9) has also won two in a row and just edged East Texas A&M 61-58 in overtime but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Lamar listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen Lamar get juiced up -3.5 (-115) and even move to -4 at some shops, signaling sneaky liability on the home favorite. At DraftKings, Lamar is taking in 74% of spread bets but a whopping 96% of spread dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in their favor.

It’s also important to note that this is a very tiny added/extra game, which means the public has no interest in this matchup and can’t even find it on their app. As a result, the bet split and line movement is most likely driven specifically by wiseguys with an edge while the betting public isn’t interested in participating. Those wary of a short win that may not cover the number could instead elect to play Lamar on the moneyline at -170.

Ken Pom has Lamar winning by five points (67-62). He also has Lamar ranked higher (216th vs 245th). Lamar has the better defensive efficiency (144th vs 221st), three-point shooting (36% vs 32%) and free-throw shooting (70% vs 68%).

Lamar is 6-3 at home. Northwestern State is 3-7 on the road.

8:30 p.m. ET: Texas Southern at Alabama State (-2.5, 144.5)

Texas Southern (8-11) is riding a five-game winning streak and just edged Alabama A&M 82-78 in overtime but failed to cover as 5-point road favorites. On the other hand, Alabama State has won two straight and just took down Prairie View 66-63 but failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Alabama State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen Alabama State get juiced up -2.5 (-115) at times, signaling some sneaky liability on the home favorite. At DraftKings, Alabama State is receiving 66% of spread bets and a hefty 97% of spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the home chalk. Once again, this is low-bet, obscure added/extra game, which means the bet split is most likely coming from pros who have their eyes on this matchup, not the betting public who could care less.

Ken Pom has Alabama State winning by three points (75-72). He also has Alabama State ranked higher (283rd vs 298th). Those looking to protect themselves in what might be a tight came could elect to play Alabama State on the moneyline at -140.

Alabama State has the better offensive efficiency (225th vs 342nd), effective field goal percentage (48% vs 45%) and takes better care of the ball (10th in turnover percentage compared to 265th for Texas Southern).

Alabama State is 5-0 at home this season. Texas Southern is 2-9 on the road.

10:30 p.m. ET: Iowa State at Arizona (-2.5, 152)

Iowa State (17-2, ranked 3rd) has won two in a row and just dismissed Arizona State 76-61, covering as 9.5-point road favorites. Similarly, Arizona (13-6) has also won two straight and just took down Colorado 78-63, covering as 14.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Iowa State listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to back Iowa State, who was the far better record and ranking. However, despite Iowa State receiving 74% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen this line completely flip to Arizona -2.5 at home. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Arizona, as the line has moved in their direction despite the vast majority of tickets backing Iowa State.

At DraftKings, Arizona is only taking in 26% of spread bets but 53% of spread dollars. At Circa, Arizona is receiving 61% of spread bets but 83% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Wildcats at home.

Those looking to follow the sharp Wildcats move but also looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could instead elect to play Arizona on the moneyline at -140. At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 30% of moneyline bets and 57% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Wildcats are taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of Arizona winning straight up.

Arizona has fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a sell-high ranked opponent. The Wildcats are 9-1 at home this season and 9-1 overall in their last ten games.

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