Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded College Basketball slate featuring more than 150 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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2 p.m. ET: Marquette at Creighton (-3.5, 145.5)

Marquette (18-5, ranked 11th) has dropped two straight games and just fell to St. John’s 70-64, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Creighton (17-6) has won eight in a row and just took down Providence 80-69, covering as 3.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Creighton listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk with Creighton, steaming the Bluejays up from -1.5 to -3.5. At DraftKings, Creighton is only receiving 50% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, indicating public indecision but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Ken Pom has Creighton winning by one point (73-72). In an attempt to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game, wiseguys have specifically targeted Creighton on the moneyline (-165). At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are taking in 35% of moneyline bets but 51% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Creighton is receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 86% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing sharp bet discrepancies in favor of the Bluejays earning a win on their home court.

Creighton has the better effective field goal percentage (56% vs 52%), three-point shooting (34% vs 33%) and free-throw shooting (76% vs 73%). The Bluejays also have fishy buy-low value as an unranked home favorite against a sell-high ranked opponent.

6 p.m. ET: BYU at Cincinnati (-1.5, 140)

BYU (15-7) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Arizona 85-74 and losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, Cincinnati (13-9) just snapped a four-game losing skid with a 93-83 win over UCF, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs.

This line opened at roughly a pick’em. Respected bettors have sided with the home team, steaming Cincinnati up from a pick’em to a 1.5-point home favorite. Some shops are even inching up to Bearcats -2. Essentially, all liability has come down on Cincinnati. This movement is especially notable because 55% of spread bets at DraftKings are backing BYU, yet the line has moved in favor of the Bearcats. This indicates some sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the home team.

Ken Pom has Cincinnati winning by one point (69-68). With this in mind, pros have gained some wiggle room by playing the Bearcats on the moneyline (-130). At DraftKings, Cincinnati is taking in 56% of moneyline bets but a hefty 86% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp split in favor of the Bearcats winning straight up.

Cincinnati has the superior defensive efficiency (21st vs 65th) and takes better care of the ball (39th in turnover percentage compared to 194th for BYU).

Cincinnati is 8-4 at home. BYU is 2-4 on the road.

10:30 p.m. ET: Texas Tech at Arizona (-3, 149)

Texas Tech (18-4, ranked 13th) has won seven in a row and just dismissed Baylor 73-59, covering as 7.5-point home favorites. Similarly, Arizona (16-6, ranked 20th) has won five straight and just upset BYU 85-74, winning outright as 3-point road dogs.

This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on the Wildcats laying short chalk at home, driving Arizona up from -2.5 to -3. Some books are even creeping up to -3.5. At DraftKings, the Wildcats are taking in 64% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action based on the “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Ken Pom has Arizona winning by two points (76-74). As a result, savvy bettors may prefer a Wildcats moneyline play (-155) instead of laying the points. At DraftKings, Arizona is receiving 50% of moneyline bets but 65% of moneyline dollars, a sharp split in favor of the Wildcats posting a straight up victory.

When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite has won roughly 70% of the time over the past four seasons.

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