Today we have a loaded Saturday slate of College Hoops action on tap with roughly 150-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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6 p.m. ET: Mississippi at Missouri (-3.5, 143.5)

Mississippi (15-4, ranked 16th) has lost two in a row and just came up short against Texas A&M 63-62, losing outright at 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, Missouri (15-4, ranked 22nd) just saw their four-game win streak come to an end, falling to Texas 61-53 and failing to cover as 3-point road dogs.

This line opened with Missouri listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is too high and they’re grabbing the points with Ole Miss, who has the better ranking. However, despite 62% of spread bets backing Ole Miss at DraftKings we’ve seen Missouri move from -3 to -3.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” liability on Missouri, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public backing Ole Miss.

At DraftKings, Missouri is taking in 38% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Ken Pom has Missouri winning by one point (73-72). As a result, those looking to play the Tigers might prefer a moneyline play (-160) instead of laying the points. At DraftKings, Missouri is receiving 49% of moneyline bets but a whopping 76% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers banking on the Tigers to win straight up. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 154-46 (77%) straight up with a 12% ROI since 2021.

Missouri has the better offensive efficiency (24th vs 41st), effective field goal percentage (56% vs 52%), offensive rebound percentage (33% vs 27%) and three-point shooting (37% vs 35%). The Tigers enjoy a one-day rest advantage, having last played on January 21st compared to Ole Miss last playing January 22nd. Missouri is a perfect 14-0 at home this season.

6 p.m. ET: West Virginia at Kansas State (-2.5, 133.5)

West Virginia (13-5, ranked 23rd) has rotated wins and losses over their last five games and just fell to Arizona State 65-57, losing outright as 8.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, Kansas State (7-11) has lost six games in a row and just lost to Baylor 70-62 but managed to cover as 11.5-point road dogs.

This line opened at a pick’em. The public is hammering West Virginia, who has the far better record and ranking. However, despite 67% of spread bets at DraftKings siding with the Mountaineers, we’ve seen this line steam up in favor of Kansas State, moving the Wildcats from a pick to a 2.5-point home favorite. Why would the oddsmakers move the line in favor of Kansas State if the public is all over West Virginia? Because respected pro money sided with the Wildcats, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor.

At DraftKings, Kansas State is only receiving 33% of spread bets but 56% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Those interested in following the fishy sharp move but also looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could elect to play the Wildcats on the moneyline (-135) instead of the spread. At DraftKings, Kansas State is taking in 36% of moneyline bets but a hefty 60% of moneyline dollars, indicating sharp money playing the Wildcats to win straight up on their home court.

Kansas State has buy-low value as an unpopular unranked favorite on a losing streak against a sell-high ranked dog.

6:30 p.m. ET: Houston (-1.5, 126.5) at Kansas

Houston (15-3, ranked 7th) has won eleven straight games and just destroyed Utah 70-36, easily covering as 17-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (14-4, ranked 12th) has won five of their last six games and just took down TCU 74-61, covering as 7-point road favorites.

This line opened with Houston listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public sees two evenly matched heavyweights and they’re leaning toward Kansas as a rare home dog. However, despite Kansas receiving 54% of spread bets at DraftKings and 55% of spread bets at Circa we’ve seen the line creep up further in favor of Houston -1 to -1.5. This signals sneaky sharp reverse line movement on the Cougars as the line has moved slightly in their favor despite being the unpopular bet. The Cougars also have notable contrarian value as they are taking in less than 50% of tickets in one of the most heavily bet games of the day.

Ken Pom has Houston winning by one point (64-63). As a result, those looking to back the Cougars may prefer a moneyline play at -115. When two top-15 teams plays each other, the favorite is 18-7 (72%) straight up this season.

Houston has the better offensive efficiency (13th vs 34th) and defensive efficiency (1st vs 4th). The Cougars also have the superior offensive rebound percentage (38% vs 32%) and three-point shooting (40% vs 33%). Houston is only allowing 53.9 PPG compared to Kansas giving up 63.3 PPG.

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