Tuesday Best Bets, Monday Recaps
Monday was mostly spent driving back home to the Tuley’s home office in North Las Vegas after a fun weekend in the Phoenix/Tempe/Mesa area.
After being scolded by Pauly Howard on Monday’s “Follow the Money” program on VSiN for not Tweeting a good enough photo of my Sunday lunch at Portillo’s, my nephew and I returned again on Monday before heading out of town (we need at least one in Vegas).
We didn’t have any issues heading back on Route 93 (aka “Bloody Alley,” which elongated our Friday drive by 3 hours). The only problem with the return trip was following along with our losing Best Bet on the Houston Roughnecks +3 vs. the DC Defenders in a 37-26 loss. We felt great as Houston jumped out to an 8-0 lead, but the losing margin was deceptive as DC scored 26 unanswered points for a 26-8 lead. I need to see a replay of the game to see what I got wrong.
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action and look for better plays on Tuesday. I was hoping to have a bet in the NIT semifinals here in Vegas, but I think the right sides are the chalk with North Texas and UAB, so instead we have Best Bets in the NBA and NHL, plus our early play for Saturday’s Final Four.
Monday Recaps
NBA: Faves went 7-1 SU, but just 5-3 ATS as Pistons (+11.5) covered in 126-117 loss vs. Bucks and 76ers (+10) covered in 116-111 loss at Nuggets. The lone outright upset was by the TImberwolves (+5.5) in 119-115 upset at the Kings. Road teams went 5-3 SU and ATS. Unders led 5-3.
More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 737-376 SU with 16 games closing pick-’em and also took the lead at 545-544-24 ATS. Home teams lead 659-470 SU and 572-535-22 ATS (51.7%). In totals wagering, Overs’ slim lead was cut to 562-550-17 (50.5%).
NHL: Faves/dogs split 3-3 Monday. The upsets were by the Canadiens (+152 at Sabres), Senators (+135 vs. Panthers) and Islanders (+110 vs. Devils). Home/road teams also split 3-3. Over/Unders went 1-1-4 (yes, 4 pushes in 6 games) including FLA-OTT (7), MTL-BUF (7), NJ-NYI (6) and SEA-MIN (6).
XFL: DC Defenders (-2) covered in 37-26 home win vs. Houston Roughnecks to wrap up Week 6 and improve to an XFL-best 6-0 (Houston drops to 4-2 after a 4-0 start). On the season, faves 18-5 SU and 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) with 1 PK. Home teams lead 13-11 SU and regain lead at 12-11-1 ATS. Over/Unders back to .500 at 12-12.
Tuesday NBA Best Bet
Pelicans +9 at Warriors: The Warriors are the defending champions and always popular with bettors, but should they really be this big of favorites against the Pelicans? I know there’s a lot of other factors in play (injuries, etc.) and GSW is 37-15-1 ATS in their last 52 home games so some credit is due, but these teams have nearly identical records this season with the Warriors at 39-37 and the Pelicans at 38-37. The Pelicans lead the season series 2-1 and have won 5 straight games and 6 of their last 8 while the Warriors are 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games. In addition, while the Warriors average 118.6 points in their last 10 games compared to 116.2 for the Pelicans, New Orleans allows just 105 points per game in its last 10 contests while GSW allows 119.7 Gimme the points.
Tuesday NHL Best Bet
Canucks-Blues 1P Over 1.5 -165 / Canadiens-Flyers 1P Over -145 (parlay pays +171): Canucks have been very good to us as they’re 19-6 (76%) with 1P Overs in their last 25 games and still the best NHL team on the season at 53-19 (73.6%) as they’ve been ultra-consistent. The Blues are only 39-34, but are 11-2 in their last 13 games and the Canucks-Blues are a combined 92-53 (63.4%). The Canadiens and Flyers are a combined 83-63 (56.8%), but better lately with Canadiens on 12 straight 1P Overs and 14-3 in their last 17 (all NHL betting stats from “Follow the Money” Army member @PSUOtto on Twitter.
NCAA March Madness Final Four Best Bet
San Diego State-Florida Atlantic 1H Under 61: We’re going back to the well with the First-Half Under. The handicap is similar to Sunday’s San Diego State-Creighton game as the Aztecs are ranked No. 4 in defensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com, with FAU rated No. 29. There should be plenty of contested shots and the teams feeling each other out in the opening 20 minutes (and you don’t have to worry about a potential foul-fest spoiling the Under like you do in a full-game wager). I’m still handicapping the sides in Saturday’s Final Four with an early lean to Miami-Fla. +5.5 vs. UConn, but basically wanting to figure out what I missed with my losing bet on Gonzaga vs. UConn on Saturday night.
