College basketball best bets and projections

I wrote before the Elite Eight matchups that the basketball gods had gifted us the two matchups on Monday night, featuring Caitlin Clark’s Iowa squad vs Angel Reese’s LSU Tigers and JuJu Watkins’s USC Trojans against Paige Bueckers and UConn. The former broke women’s basketball viewership records, at 12.3 million viewers. I think Friday night’s matchups could break that record, as Clark and Iowa take on Bueckers and UConn, while undefeated South Carolina takes on underdog NC State.

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are my TSI projections for the Women’s Final Four:

South Carolina (-11.5, 139.5) vs. NC State

TSI Projection: South Carolina -17, 140.5

Dawn Staley’s Lady Gamecocks come into this game undefeated, although they’ve been tested lately by Oregon State and Indiana, so they are mortal. Awesome, but mortal. Averaging 86 points per game this season (82 in the tournament) and allowing just under 56 points per game (53 in the tournament), the Gamecocks are dominant on both ends of the court. After a crushing loss to Iowa in last year’s Final Four, South Carolina has revenge on its mind but must first get past a red-hot Lady Wolfpack team from NC State that just knocked off regional #1 seed, Texas.

NC State’s numbers are much more pedestrian, averaging 73 points per game and allowing 59 – 74 and 63 in the tournament. While South Carolina has been the T Shoe Index #1 rated team pretty much all season, NC State sits at just 20th overall. A key to this game is going to be the tempo; these teams play at slower tempos than either of the other two Final Four teams. A lower possession game increases the variance, which generally works in favor of the underdog. However, this is no ordinary giant that the ‘Pack is trying to slay. 

TSI projects South Carolina as 17-point favorites in this game – much higher than oddsmakers’ current number of 11.5 – with a total of 140.5, which is a hair over the line of 139.5. For the season, South Carolina has limited its opponents to just 79% of their scoring average, which is the best in the country, while also scoring 132% more points than its opponents allow on average, good for second in the nation behind only Iowa. Dawn Staley having a few extra days of preparation for this game is also an advantage for South Carolina, in my opinion, so from a betting perspective, it would be South Carolina or nothing for me in this game.

Bet: South Carolina -11.5

Iowa (-2.5, 162.5) vs. Connecticut

TSI projection: Iowa -0.5, 162

After South Carolina or NC State have secured a spot in the national championship, all eyes will be on the marquee game of the night (year?). The Iowa Hawkeyes are 2.5-point favorites against the Huskies of Connecticut, with an O/U of 162.5. While there’s not quite the history between these teams or the competitive animosity that exists between Iowa and LSU, I think there’s definitely some personal pride on the line on each side. Paige Bueckers was the #1 recruit in the class of 2020 and was the National Player of the Year as a true freshman at UConn before missing over a year with a knee injury. In the meantime, she’s seen fellow 2020 blue chip recruit Caitlin Clark’s rise to fame and become the sport’s all-time leading scorer.

Clark, who just put on an absolute clinic in the Elite Eight game against LSU Monday night, is projected to be the #1 pick in the WNBA draft this year, while Bueckers has decided to return to UConn for her senior season. Now that we’ve laid the foundation of the individual matchup of the game, how do these teams compare? 

Iowa leads the nation in scoring at 92 points per game, allowing 71.5 per game – down to 84.5 and 68.5 in the tournament; Geno Auriemma’s Huskies, on the other hand, average “just” 80 points per game  but allow only 57 per game – 73 and 61.5 in the tournament. The average D1 women’s team plays with a pace of about 70.5 possessions per game, but both of these teams are well above that in the tournament, as Iowa is around 78 and UConn is around 75, so these teams are not afraid to push the pace and run and gun. 

The Iowa offense against the UConn defense, to me, is what this game comes down to. That’s the Caitlin effect; it’s not JUST the 40-piece she will give you, but it’s the 15 assists she’s capable and willing to rack up to keep her (capable) teammates involved. 

Geno Auriemma has a decision to make: let Caitlin go crazy and contain everyone else? Or try to bottle Caitlin’s scoring and make the supporting cast beat you? That’s why he’s paid the big bucks, I guess. 

The Iowa offense scores 139% more points than its opponents have allowed on average, but the UConn defense has suffocated teams to just 84% of their scoring average. Something’s got to give. TSI projects basically a pick ‘em (Iowa -0.5), with a total of 162. I don’t know who will win, but I know I’ll be glued to the TV to soak up every minute of this colossal game. 

Lean: Connecticut +2.5