Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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- NCAAF Expert Picks
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You can always track the latest odds and betting percentages for every game using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s Week 7 College Football slate…
3:30 p.m. ET: Oregon at Washington (-3, 66.5)
Oregon (5-0) is ranked 8th and just crushed Stanford 42-6, covering as 27.5-point road favorites. Similarly, Washington (5-0) is ranked 7th and just edged Arizona 31-24 but did not cover as a 20-point road favorite.
This line opened with Washington listed as low as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to back the Ducks plus the points. However, despite Oregon receiving 62% of bets we’ve actually seen this line move further to Washington -1.5 to -3. Some shops are even inching up to Huskies -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Washington, with pros fading the trendy dog Ducks and instead laying the points with the unpopular home favorite. Washington is only receiving 38% of bets but 58% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet split. The Huskies have value as a fishy contrarian play with a sharp line move in the most heavily bet public game of the day. Washington also has buy-low value as a team who did not cover the previous week against a sell-high team that did.
When two ranked teams face off, the favorite is 10-6 ATS (62%) this season and 181-145 ATS (56%) since 2016. Washington has the edge in the passing game, averaging 446 yards through the air compared to 331 for Oregon. Those looking to back the sharp Washington move but wary of laying the points could instead target the Huskies -160 on the moneyline.
7:30 p.m. ET: USC at Notre Dame (-2.5, 60.5)
USC (6-0) is ranked 10th and just squeaked by Arizona 43-41 in triple overtime but did not cover as a 21-point home favorite. On the other hand, Notre Dame (5-2) is ranked 21st and has lost two of their last three games. The Irish just fell to Louisville 33-20 last week, losing outright as a 6-point road favorite.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em. The public is happy to back USC, who is undefeated and the higher ranked team. However, despite 55% of bets backing USC, we’ve seen this line move in favor of Notre Dame (pick’em to -2.5). Why would the line move to the Irish if the Trojans are the popular bet? Because pros have taken a position on Notre Dame, steaming the line in favor of the Irish. Notre Dame is only receiving 45% of bets but 55% of money, a notable sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in a primetime game. It has also evolved into a fishy "fade the trendy dog" play. After all, why is the 21st ranked team in the country favored over the 10th ranked team in the country? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? If it looks too good to be true, or doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it.
When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 7-1 ATS this season and 101-68 ATS (60%) since 2016. The Irish have the edge on defense, only allowing 279 yards per game compared to 421 given up by USC.
Those looking to protect themselves in a tight game could target Notre Dame on the moneyline at -140. When two ranked teams face off, the home favorite is 138-32 (81%) straight up since 2016.
More Sharp Moves
Texas A&M +3.5 to +3 at Tennessee
Miami +3.5 to +3 at North Carolina
Pittsburgh +9 to +7 vs Louisville
UCLA +4.5 to +3.5 at Oregon State
Virginia Tech +1 to -1.5 vs Wake Forest
