Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 7 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. I’ll also be breaking down games this morning from 8 to 10 a.m. ET on The Sweat, LIVE from the DraftKings studio in Boston.
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In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for today’s Week 9 College Football slate…
12 p.m. ET: Oklahoma (-8.5, 66) at Kansas
Oklahoma (7-0) is ranked 6th and just edged Central Florida 31-29 but failed to cover as 17-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Kansas (5-2) has dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Oklahoma State 39-32, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Oklahoma listed as a 10-point road favorite. The public smells a Sooners blowout win and currently 75% of bets are laying the points with Oklahoma. However, despite this lopsided support we’ve seen Oklahoma fall from -10 to -8.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Oklahoma to begin with? Because pros have gotten down on Kansas plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Jayhawks. Kansas is only receiving 25% of bets but 45% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" bet split. Kansas is the top contrarian play of the day as well, receiving only 25% of bets in the second most heavily bet game of the day. Kansas has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. Kansas also enjoys a "rest vs tired" advantage as the Jayhawks are coming off a bye while Oklahoma played last Saturday. Kansas will lean on their ground game, averaging 212 rushing yards per game compared to 168 for Oklahoma.
3:30 p.m. ET: Duke at Louisville (-6, 45.5)
Duke (5-2) is ranked 20th but has dropped two of their last three games and just fell to Florida State 38-20, failing to cover as 14-point road dogs. Similarly, Louisville (6-1) is ranked 18th but just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to Pittsburgh 38-21 and losing outright as 7.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Louisville listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public sees two evenly matched teams and is grabbing the points with Duke. However, despite 55% of bets taking Duke we’ve seen this line move further to Louisville -4 to -6. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Louisville, with pros fading the trendy dog and instead laying the points with the contrarian home favorite. Louisville is only receiving 45% of bets but 59% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. When two ranked teams play each other, the home favorite is 13-2 ATS (87%) this season and 107-69 ATS (61%) since 2016. On the moneyline, these teams are 14-2 SU (88%) this season and 145-33 SU (81%) since 2016. Louisville has a rest advantage as they are coming off the bye while Duke played last Saturday. Louisville also has the better offense, averaging 462 yards per game compared to 372 for Duke.
10:30 p.m. ET: Oregon State (-3, 56.5) at Arizona
Oregon State (6-1) is ranked 11th and just brushed aside UCLA 36-24, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Arizona (4-3) just ended a two-game losing skid with a 44-6 win over Washington State, easily winning outright as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Oregon State listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and they’re rushing to the window to lay the points with Oregon State. However, despite receiving 67% of bets we’ve seen Oregon State fall from -4.5 to -3. This indicates smart money grabbing the points with Arizona, triggering sharp movement in favor of the home dog. Arizona is only receiving 33% of bets but 52% of money, a sharp contrarian bet split. Arizona also has buy-low value as an unranked home dog against a ranked opponent. Arizona has the better offense (452 yards per game vs 444) and better defense (allowing 333 yards per game vs 343). Both teams are coming off a bye.
