The third week of the college football season is upon us, and it is a good one. This week’s card is loaded with rivalry games and situations handicappers love to jump on.

Last week, two of the three plays I wrote about ended up in the loss column. Oregon looked just as disjointed in their win over Boise State, and Michigan could not hold Texas’s offense to less than 25.5 points. At least the Irish did their part in keeping their loss to the Huskies under the total.

 

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This week, three plays make the card in the early portion of the week once more. 

College Football Best Bets for Week 3

UNLV Rebels at Kansas Jayhawks

UNLV is 12-4 ATS since Barry Odom took over the program last season. It is one of the most profitable teams in the country over that span, but one of those failed covers came in Phoenix at the Guaranteed Rate Bowl to Kansas. This is a big revenge spot for the Rebels, and enough has changed that I believe they can give the Jayhawks a run for their money on Friday night.

Through two games quarterback Matthew Sluka has shown that he brings a different dynamic to this offense than Jayden Maiava, who led UNLV to that bowl game last season. 

Sluka has run the ball 20 times this season, 13 of which have been designed runs. He is averaging 9.7 yards per carry on such plays. That added facet has improved the Rebels’ run game, and they enter Friday night 20th in the country in EPA per rush as a result.

Barry Odom also used the transfer portal to address one of UNLV’s biggest weaknesses this offseason: the defensive backfield.

Texas transfer Jalen Catalon has been rock-solid to this point. He leads the team in PFF coverage grade (89.8) and has already picked off two passes. Catalan has paired nicely with corner Cameron Oliver who has allowed just three receptions for 28 yards to this point of the season. This unit should be able to contain the explosive plays that killed them in Phoenix last December.

The original number for this game had Kansas as an 11-point favorite. It is now at -7 but bettors are still getting a key number in this matchup, and that is still worth taking by my measure. UNLV has been one of the most undervalued teams in the country since last season. That has carried over to this season, as the Rebels are 2-0 with a spread differential of +20 points.

Play: UNLV (+7)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers

Last week the under in Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois was a play in the column. That got home with ease, and we’re going back to the well once more with the Irish this week.

Notre Dame is not a good offensive team. Through two games the Irish are 80th in offensive success rate. The problem is not their ground game, which actually comes into this game 22nd in EPA per rush. The issue comes at quarterback.

Riley Leonard is not a skilled passer. He has averaged 5.1 yards per attempt on an average depth of target of 6.8 yards downfield this season. Leonard has yet to throw a touchdown and has two interceptions. His biggest strength is his athleticism, but how effective will he be running the ball now that he is reportedly dealing with a shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder?

On the other side, despite giving up 388 total yards to Northern Illinois last weekend, I trust this defense to perform at a high level. 

One could attest the issues last week to a group that had to be on the field for nearly 70 plays because its offense could not string together consistent drives. In fact, in the second half the Huskies ran 43 plays to just 21 for the Irish.

Notre Dame looks like a team that will play to some low-scoring, ugly results. The first two games have gone under the total by an average of 13 points. I’m willing to take another shot at this total on Saturday, expecting a similar result to what we have seen the last two weeks.

Play: UNDER 46

Colorado Buffaloes at Colorado State Rams

One morning over the summer I ran into professional handicapper Paul Stone at Circa after filling in on Follow The Money. We discussed some of the lines posted in college football, and this contest between Colorado and Colorado State came up. Paul asked me what I thought about the Buffaloes laying 9.5 at the time, and I responded that it was too many points.

That was before we saw Colorado in action. Today, I am just perplexed as to the respect this team is receiving.

Through two games the Buffaloes are 0-2 ATS with a -9 spread differential. They are 83rd in overall defensive success rate and 97th in defensive success rate against opponent dropbacks. 

Their offense is extremely one-dimensional. 

Colorado has run for 122 yards on 3.2 yards per carry in two games this season. Remove Shedeur Sanders’s scrambles, and the team has run the ball just 30 times for 84 yards. Their first two opponents have played them in similar fashions: light boxes with emphasis on coverage, daring them to run the ball. The Buffaloes refuse to adjust.

I have been clear that I am not the biggest fan of Colorado State this season. I believe that Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi puts the ball in danger consistently, and this team is not as good as the collective believes it is. Having said that, they are much closer to Colorado than this number would indicate.

The Buffs are a poorly coached team with a bad defense. It should not be laying a key number on the road in a rivalry game.

Play: Colorado State (+7.5) 

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