We’ve already reached Week 5 on the college football schedule for 2024, meaning that most teams have wrapped up their non-conference schedules and are aiming for league foes the rest of the way. Although there have already been limited in-league games, and there will still be limited non-conference games on the slate, for the most part, it is time to get down to business and sort out the conference standings. Naturally, conference play changes a lot of facets of the game, familiarity, closer-level opponents for the most part, and a general uptick in intensity. Most programs’ first season-long goal involves capturing a conference championship. The playoffs and national title aspirations are usually next on the list. With all this in mind, bettors should be familiar with some top betting systems and trends that have developed in recent years when it comes to conference games. That’s what I’m here to unveil in this piece.

Note that we will track and post qualifying games on these systems and trends for the rest of the season on the VSiN College Football Analytics Reports!

 

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Five Top Conference Game Betting Systems

I spent a few hours earlier this week dabbling in a database I put together that featured only conference games in FBS dating back to 2010. I researched several variables when it came to putting together some strong systematic data that has developed, not limited to line ranges, home/road, previous game results, and more. For the most part, the biggest sample size systems I came up with offered records in the 46.5-53.5 win percentage range. However, I was able to poach out five different systems that have fared far more definitively, giving bettors a significant advantage when these situations arise. Take a look:

College Football Conference Betting Trend #1: Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3 points have struggled lately, 71-102 ATS (41%) since 2011.
These are heartbreaking losses for teams and can take the wind out of their sails as they hit the road to take on conference rivals. Playing on the road in conference play is a challenge enough, adding the disappointment of losing a potentially winning game the prior week only adds to it.
Qualifying fade plays for Week 5: NONE – Will continue to watch for these in future CFB Analytics Reports

College Football Conference Betting Trend #2: Road favorites of 30 points or more in conference games have struggled recently, 7-22 ATS (24.1%) since 2015.
This is not one that comes up very often, so catch them when they do. Think of the difficulty that comes with beating a 30-point line on the road against a familiar opponent. Not only is it hard to do, but is the motivation there? Is there too much respect for the opponent to lay the hammer on them on their home turf? Is the saying “what comes around goes around” on the minds of coaches? These favorites win almost every time, but covering the number is a different story.
Qualifying fade plays for Week 5: NONE – Closest are two Big Ten games (Oregon -24 at UCLA, Ohio State -24 at Michigan State)

College Football Conference Betting Trend #3: Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 132-99 ATS (57.1%) surge since 2010.
This is essentially an “after the bye week” scenario. A rested team on the road in conference play has had a week extra to prepare and probably figures to be motivated by the lofty point spread as well.
Qualifying fade plays for Week 5: ARIZONA (+12 at Utah), WISCONSIN (+16 at USC)

College Football Conference Betting Trend #4: Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than 3 points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 26-45 ATS (36.6%) since 2010.
Obviously, oddsmakers aren’t putting a lot of stock into the potential for this upset-winning team to carry on the momentum, as they have them installed as home dogs. Teams that pull massive upsets like this generally aren’t good teams, and these unusual wins prove to be anomalies. Figure they’ll come back down to earth the next time out, even at home.
Qualifying fade plays for Week 5: NONE – Will continue to watch for these in future CFB Analytics Report.

College Football Conference Betting Trend #5:Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 41-72 ATS (36.3%) since 2010.
These teams are reeling from a brutal blowout loss. Even being at home and motivated against a conference opponent isn’t enough to rescue them. Expect the poor play to continue.
Qualifying fade plays for Week 5: KENT STATE (+14.5 vs. Eastern Michigan)

These are some of the top team trends that have formed recently in conference play. All of these have dramatic winning percentages of less than 20% or more than 80% and could be considered ingrained tendencies for the respective programs at this point.

Negative FADE trends:

· UCF is on a 0-11 ATS skid in conference games when coming off a close of 7 points or less

· LA MONROE is on a 1-15 ATS skid as a home favorite in Sun Belt play

· MIDDLE TENN STATE is on a 0-9 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win

· CONNECTICUT has lost its last eight conference games ATS when coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer

· GA SOUTHERN is on a 0-8 ATS streak in conference games when coming off a close loss of 7 points or less

· LOUISIANA TECH has lost its last eight games ATS against conference foes when coming off an outright home loss (This trend is in play at FIU on Saturday)

· USC has not handled outright road wins well, going 0-8 ATS in the next contest if against conference opponents

· MICHIGAN STATE is on a 1-12 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win (This trend is in play vs. Ohio State on Saturday)

· MISSISSIPPI STATE is on a 0-8 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win

· USC has lost its last seven games ATS as a favorite in conference play (This trend is in play vs. Wisconsin on Saturday)

· UCF has lost its last seven games ATS as a favorite in conference play (This trend is in play vs. Colorado on Saturday)

· ILLINOIS is on a 2-14 ATS skid as a conference home favorite

· RUTGERS has lost its last seven games ATS at home in conference play when coming off a road victory (This trend is in play vs. Washington on Saturday)

· DUKE is on a 1-16 ATS skid in conference games when coming off a blowout loss of 20 points or more

· HAWAII is just 3-17 ATS in its last 16 conference games when favored by single digits

· STANFORD is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 conference games when coming off a road loss

· RUTGERS is on a 1-10 ATS skid as Big Ten home underdog

· NEBRASKA is just 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a Big Ten favorite (This trend is in play at Purdue on Saturday)

· TEMPLE is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 conference games when coming off a road loss

· MEMPHIS is on a 3-16 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win

· AKRON is on a 3-14 ATS skid in MAC play when coming off a road loss (This trend is in play at Ohio on Saturday)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

· BALL STATE has won its last 10 games ATS in MAC play when coming off an upset win

· FRESNO STATE is on a perfect 9-0 ATS streak as a home underdog in Mountain West play

· UTSA has won its last nine conference games ATS when coming off an outright loss

· BOISE STATE is a perfect 8-0 ATS in MWC play when coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer

· UTAH boasts a perfect 8-0 ATS record in its last eight games as a double-digit conference underdog

· TROY has won its last eight Sun Belt road games ATS

· TEXAS TECH is on an eight-game ATS winning streak in conference play when coming off a road loss

· OLD DOMINION has won its last eight games ATS as a conference underdog

· WESTERN KENTUCKY is on a 12-1 ATS surge in conference play when coming off a win at home

· TROY is on 14-2 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win (This trend is in play vs. LA Monroe on Saturday)

· SAN JOSE ST is on an 11-1 ATS surge as a double-digit conference underdog

· PURDUE has a respectable 11-1 ATS record in its last 12 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points

· NAVY is on a 29-6 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win (This trend is in play at UAB on Saturday)

· KANSAS STATE is on a 10-1 ATS run in Big 12 action when coming off a blowout loss of 20+ points (This trend is in play vs. Oklahoma State on Saturday)

· BOISE STATE takes care of business as a Mountain West favorite of 20+ points, 10-1 ATS in its last 11

· PENN STATE has become a very reliable Big Ten favorite, 17-4 ATS in its last 21 (This trend is in play vs. Illinois on Saturday)

· LA LAFAYETTE is on a 14-2 ATS surge in Sun Belt play when coming off a home loss

· GEORGIA STATE is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 13-2 ATS

· NORTHWESTERN is on an 11-2 ATS Big Ten run when coming off a close win of 7 points or less

· MICHIGAN is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win (This trend is in play vs. Minnesota on Saturday)

· LOUISVILLE is on an impressive 11-2 ATS surge as an ACC home favorite

· NORTHERN ILLINOIS is a 15-3 ATS MAC road underdog in its last 18 tries

· LSU is 14-3 ATS in last 17 SEC games when coming off a road loss

· EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 18-4 ATS in the last 22

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