College Football DraftKings Betting Splits Systems Update:

Seems hard to believe, but we’ve already reached the halfway point of the 2024 college football regular season, with eight full weeks in the books already. This was a highly anticipated campaign for many reasons, first and foremost due to the expansion of the playoffs. We’ve seen a whole bunch of captivating results so far, and at this point, it’s tough to even pick a frontrunner. A team will look amazing in one week, but follow it up immediately with a “what happened” type of performance. All of that tends to make it difficult for bettors to succeed week in and week out, just as the sportsbooks like to see. 

As the DraftKings Betting Splits have taken off on VSiN over the last couple of years, I have made it a point to keep up with regular updates on the data and track how the majorities are doing. I have created DK Betting Splits “Systems” out of this data and offer them with the qualifying plays for each week in our popular Analytics Reports. With half the regular season down, I figured this would be an ideal time to get readers up to speed on what has happened with the betting splits in college football since “Week 0,” now two months ago. 

 

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As I explained in an article at the outset of the season, if you saw my release highlighting the DK Betting Splits Systems for NFL Preseason, you’ll quickly realize that while profitable, these college football systems aren’t nearly as definitive as those for NFLPS. That has as much to do with the sheer number of games as anything. However, in many ways, a system that lives with ATS percentages of around 55% on a bigger sample size might be considered as or more effective than one that is 10% higher on far less volume. Keep that in mind as you review the findings. Also, recall that the qualifying plays for these angles are listed by VSiN on the Analytics Reports each week and are updated twice each week, first on initial Tuesday release, and second on the morning of every huge Saturday slate of games.

One key concept that readers need to consider when utilizing the systems…not all of them rely on fading the public majorities. Some of them are built on the premise of getting behind the masses, as some of these angles prove there are some spots in which the public has thrived with college football, note #6 specifically.

Let’s begin by looking at the overall results from the 406 FBS vs. FBS games that have been played as of 10/21. You’ll see that I have added money line analysis to this update:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 190-201 ATS (48.6%). -31.1 units, ROI: -7.9%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 192-196 ATS (49.5%), -23.6 units, ROI: -6.1%
– Majority handle on money lines: 263-123 SU (68.1%). -73.3 units, ROI: -19%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 280-109 SU (71.9%). -48.8 units, ROI: -12.5%
– Majority handle on totals: 191-205 (48.2%), -34.5 units, ROI: -8.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 199-197 (50.3%), -17.7 units, ROI: -4.5%

As you can see, in all six categories, the majority saw noteworthy losses. However, the money line losses were even more significant. However, if you back out the 65 units that were lost on one single game for both majorities, that being on Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois, the performance is much more respectable. You’ll see at the conclusion of this article that I’ve even added a pair of money line spots in which to back majorities. Bettors have backed favorites by a 5.5 to 1 count this season, so any major upset is crippling.

In the point spread and total wagering categories, the losses have been slow but steady.

As always, I like to dig deeper, so I did and came up with some even more defined angles. You will find those next.

Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another:

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. This angle has produced at around 46% consistently since first discovered, so I would expect an end-of-season slow down. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 231-251 ATS (47.9%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. This year, it is actually 67-63 ATS, so I would expect this to cool down over the rest of the season. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 219-241 ATS (47.6%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023 and again in 2024 so far, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-167 ATS (51.5%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and it goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it is off to a strong 20-13 ATS start in 2024.  It suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 & 2023 season record was 62.5%! This year, it’s just 18-25 ATS, dropping the overall system mark to 168-115 ATS (59.4%). Still, it goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in a FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 405-444 ATS (47.7%), even after a 92-90 ATS start to this season. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer. I would expect the late-season results to bring this year’s record back into normalcy. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%). This remains pretty rare, as it occurred in only 12 of 406 games this season.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start. This system also improved its win percentage in 2023, so it’s on an upward climb. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and an ROI of 11.9%. This has happened in only about one of every ten games on average, so it is rare.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a majority number of money line bets on a road underdog of +3 points or fewer, bettors are 12-8 SU (60%) for +6.04 units of profit and an ROI of 30.2%. This is an angle in which bettors tend to go away from their comfort zone and have been rewarded.

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