College Football Picks:

Week 9. Man, it is crazy to think that we’re almost into double digits with the college football season and that this is the last full week of the season played in October. Time flies when you’re having fun and hopefully you’ve been having fun with CFB this season and with us here at VSiN.

The last few weeks, it feels like we’ve had an inordinate amount of road favorites. This week, we have a little more than 10, so it all depends on how the schedule falls. A lot of teams have been very inconsistent this season, so it feels like one of those years where you’ve just got to dig in a little deeper and find the right angles, stats, and trendlines to make your wagers.

 

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Here are my Week 9 College Football Picks:

Illinois Fighting Illini at Oregon Ducks (-21.5, 54.5)

3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Like many, I was against Oregon last week against Purdue. The Boilermakers threatened to cover all game long, but got shut out after a strong defensive effort from the Ducks. It was a pretty methodical performance from the Ducks with seven yards per play on only 60 offensive plays and they absolutely deserved the cover, but their run defense was a little suspect. The Boilers had 5.2 yards per pop and over 200 rushing yards.

Illinois comes in with a different look and, more importantly, a team that doesn’t hurt themselves. Luke Altmyer has a 15/1 TD/INT ratio and the ground game has been decent enough to provide some measure of offensive balance. It is a long trip for Illinois and long trips have not been good for B1G teams this season, but I do think coaches have taken notice and are doing what they can to make adjustments.

Aside from the huge outlier performance on defense against Purdue in Ryan Browne’s first start, the Illinois defense has held every other opponent to 24 or fewer points. Oregon is a different animal than the other offenses that they have faced, but teams that take care of the football are much harder to beat by margin.

Also, I wouldn’t have believed this unless I looked for myself, but Illinois has more plays of 20+ yards than Oregon. The Ducks’ SOS is about 30 spots higher per Jeff Sagarin, but these two teams have different levels of athlete. I think the Illini can keep this one close, with an experienced Altmyer taking great care of the ball.

Pick: Illinois +21.5

Eastern Michigan Eagles (-3, 52) at Akron Zips

3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

Eastern Michigan and Akron. What a barnburner.

But, hey, the Zips are improving. They’ve had 5.65 YPP in conference action, which is a half-yard per play better than what Eastern Michigan has mustered. Sure, Akron has been behind and they’ve had to throw more as a result, but the Zips were right there with a chance to beat Bowling Green at home a couple weeks ago and had over 500 yards of offense against Western Michigan in a weird game delayed by weather.

Akron was -4 in TO margin in that game with three fumbles lost. They’re close. Closer than they’ve been in a while to being a respectable team. And they get a decent opportunity this week against an Eastern Michigan defense that has allowed over 7.5 yards per play in conference games and nearly eight yards per play the last two games against Miami (OH) and Central Michigan. Hardly offensive juggernauts.

We’ve seen some sharp market interest in Akron this week. We saw some on Kent State last week against Ball State and that was right. We saw some with UCLA against Rutgers and that was right. When influential money is interested in a bad team, it usually means something. These are both bad teams, but Akron has been one of the worst teams in the nation for a long time. I think this line move is telling and I think we’re under 3 as the weekend approaches.

Pick: Akron +3

Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats (-11, 55.5)

8 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

The Jayhawks and Wildcats meet in the Sunflower Showdown in the Little Apple this week. I was very skeptical of Kansas coming into the season without OC Andy Kotelnicki and they looked like a disjointed offense early. Recently, though, they’ve gotten back on track and Jalon Daniels has officially shaken off a lot of rust. In two October games, the Jayhawks have 7.44 yards per play and they have 6.41 YPP in league play against Big 12 opponents.

They’re up to 35th in YPP for OC Jeff Grimes, who has always been viewed as a sharp offensive mind. But, they’re still behind Kansas State, who ranks 14th in YPP. The Wildcats did take advantage of the non-conference slate with better than 7.5 YPP, but they’re still moving it very effectively in conference play. 

Defensively, both teams are lagging behind their offensive performances. I think we get a shootout in this one as a result. Avery Johnson and Daniels are two talented QBs. We’ve got two good play callers here. Three of Kansas’s last four games have gone into the 60s and they scored 42 last week coming out of the bye. Kansas State has scored at least 31 points in every game but one. I expect these two offenses to eat in Manhattan this weekend.

Pick: Over 55.5

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