College football predictions Week 4 from Wes Reynolds

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Wes Reynolds
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College football expert betting picks for Week 4

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews 

 

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(odds as of September 14, 9:35 p.m. PT)

 

Florida State (-2.5; 55) at Clemson

Clemson was favored in the Games of the Year lines over the summer, but Florida State’s impressive second half in a victory over LSU and Clemson’s ineptitude in the red zone in its loss to an underrated Duke team has now flipped the favorites. 

Keep in mind that Florida State nearly lost last week as four-touchdown favorites at Boston College, who lost outright to Northern Illinois and barely held on by three over FCS Holy Cross.

Aside from Duke probably being underrated in general, Clemson was debuting a new offensive scheme with a new offensive coordinator (Garrett Riley who came in from TCU) on the road against a Duke defensive staff, led by head coach Mike Elko, that is excellent.

Cade Klubnik, albeit versus lower competition, seems to be getting in a groove with the new offense and he gets to face a secondary who has allowed 305 and 347 in 2 games vs. Power Five teams (LSU and Boston College).

The last time Clemson was a home dog was in 2016 when the Tigers were +2 and beat Louisville 42-36. Clemson has won the last 7 meetings and covered 5
straight vs FSU.

I would obviously love to get +3, but there appears to be too much market resistance.

Bet: Clemson +2.5 (to +1.5) or +115 Money Line

Oklahoma (-14; 57.5) at Cincinnati

Cincinnati lost the Battle for the Victory Bell for the first time in 16 years last Saturday in OT to Miami (OH), which was one of our selections last week at +14. Now the Bearcats have their first game as members of the Big XII as Oklahoma comes to Nippert Stadium.

We do not know yet how good Oklahoma is. They blew out overmatched Arkansas State and Tulsa (playing its backup quarterback) and were only up 3 on SMU with nine minutes to play before two late touchdowns. SMU actually outgained Oklahoma 367-365.

Despite Cincinnati losing to Miami (OH), the Bearcats did have a 30-16 first downs edge and a 538-358 yardage edge.

Cincinnati quarterback and well-traveled Emory Jones seems to have finally found a home in Scott Satterfield’s offense and the Bearcats should be able to put up enough to stay within this number.

Bet: Cincinnati +14

Auburn at Texas A&M (-8; 50.5)

Last year when these two teams met, both were in the midst of five-game losing streaks. It was Auburn prevailing, 13-10, and the Tigers led by interim coach Cadillac Williams ended the Aggies’ bowl eligibility. The Auburn faithful, after a tough season that included the dismissal of head coach Byron Harsin, celebrated as if they had won the SEC. Texas A&M certainly remembers that and has this game circled.

This year, Auburn, led by new head coach Hugh Freeze, has started 3-0 but against a fairly easy schedule which has included UMass and Samford. Auburn did win at Cal, 14-10, but were outgained 273-230 and needed a late touchdown to earn the win.

Meanwhile, A&M’s one game in the national spotlight this season was a 48-33 loss at Miami where Tyler Van Dyke threw for five touchdown passes. Fortunately for the Aggies, Auburn does not possess that passing threat. Texas A&M also has a more modern and explosive offense under new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino.

Bet: Texas A&M -8 (to -9.5)

 

Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (-4; 58.5)

The disparity in records (Georgia Tech 1-2, Wake Forest 3-0) is misleading here as Georgia Tech has had to face Louisville and travel to Ole Miss early while Wake has played Elon, Old Dominion, and at Vanderbilt.

Wake did cover against Vanderbilt but benefited from three Vanderbilt turnovers, including a muffed punt that Wake returned for a touchdown. And last week against Old Dominion, Wake had to overcome a late third-quarter 24-7 deficit.

Georgia Tech, under new offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, has put up 488 yards against Louisville and 474 at Ole Miss last week.

The Yellow Jackets should have beaten Louisville and should have covered at Ole Miss before the usual Lane Kiffin point spread shenanigans.

Bet: Georgia Tech +4 (to +3.5)

Colorado State at Middle Tennessee (-3; 51.5)

Colorado State was going to put an end to the hype machine around Colorado and had the Buffaloes beat before some questionable late coaching decisions from Jay Norvell. While the Rams had almost 500 yards of offense, they also had 17 penalties for 182 yards.

Now the Rams have to take to the road and get over the disappointment of letting one slip away last week. Awaiting the Rams are Middle Tennessee, who is 1-2 on the season. The Blue Raiders were predictably blown out at Alabama, only lost by four at Missouri (and had the ball late to win outright), and earned their first win over FCS Murray State last week.

While Middle Tennessee is a drop in class from Washington State and Colorado, Colorado State has still allowed 814 yards through the air in two games.

This is such a tough spot for the Rams to get off the mat.

Bet: Middle Tennessee -3 (or -145 ML)

North Carolina (-7.5; 50) at Pittsburgh

Pitt quarterback Phil Jurkovec and offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti have not been able to duplicate what they had back in 2020 at Boston College. Through three games, Jurkovec has gone an abysmal 35-of-75 (46.7%) for 474 yards (158 per game) with only four touchdowns to three interceptions.

Meanwhile, North Carolina is 3-0 and although Drake Maye has thrown for nearly a 300-yard per-game average thus far this season, he has only thrown for four touchdowns and already has four interceptions (38 to 7 TD to INT ratio in 2022).

The Panthers are likely to go back to basics here by running the ball and playing good defense. The Tar Heels allowed 5 and 5.5 yards per carry vs. Appalachian State and Minnesota respectively.

North Carolina is just 1-7-1 ATS as a Road Favorite since 2020, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3 or more in ACC games under Pat Narduzzi.

Bet: Pittsburgh +7.5 (to +7)

UNLV (-2.5; 50) at UTEP

UNLV is off its first victory over a Power Five opponent (at Vanderbilt) since 2019 with a wild 40-37 back-and-forth affair also over Vanderbilt.

The Miners sit 1-3 and have zero wins over FBS competition. They were close for a half last week at Arizona before the Wildcats put it away in the third quarter.

The Rebels may be without starting quarterback Doug Brumfield again for this. Last week, freshman Jayden Maiava, out of Liberty HS in Las Vegas, was ready to step in (19/33, 261 yards, TD, INT, 1 rushing TD) at a crucial point early in the second quarter down 17-0. Can he do it on the road this week knowing that he’s the guy for this one?

This feels like a "back against the wall" spot for a veteran UTEP team.

Bet: UTEP +2.5 (to +1.5) or +125 Money Line

 

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