College football predictions Week 6 from Wes Reynolds

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Wes Reynolds
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College football expert betting picks for Week 6

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews 

 

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(odds as of October 6, 10:35 a.m. PT)

 

Alabama (-2.5; 46) at Texas A&M

While Alabama has seemingly gotten right with consecutive victories and covers over Ole Miss and at Mississippi State, the Crimson Tide offense is not exactly rolling averaging just 341 yards in those victories.

The Aggies rank 20th nationally in Rushing Defense and are only allowing 2.88 YPC and have given up just one touchdown on the ground thus far this season. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has had trouble making plays down the field in obvious passing situations. The Tide’s offensive line has also allowed 20 sacks this season.

Texas A&M held Arkansas and its dual-threat QB KJ Jefferson to just 174 yards and ten first downs last week.

Despite losing QB Connor Weigman for the season two weeks ago to a foot injury, Max Johnson is an experienced backup. He came into the second half vs. Auburn and threw for 123 yards and two touchdowns and went 17/28 for 210 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in last week’s victory over Arkansas.

New offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino has improved this Aggies offense dramatically. The Aggies were 101st last year and now rank 34th in total offense.

Alabama has been no sure thing on the road in recent years on the road going 5-10 ATS including being upset in College Station two years ago.

Bet: Texas A&M +2.5 (to PK)

Colorado (-4.5; 59.5) at Arizona State

The Colorado Buffaloes currently sit at 3-2 and are one win away from exceeding their season wins total of 3.5. However, they have played five straight games in five straight weeks that have had an exorbitant amount of hype. Now they are just another game on the Saturday schedule. How will they fare when the national spotlight is no longer there? And how much energy is left for these guys after all of these big games?

It will take a couple to a few recruiting classes (even with the transfer portal) to build the depth necessary for Deion Sanders to get Colorado, who wants to get back amongst the national elite, to be competitive with the big boys as they have found out over the last two weeks against Oregon and USC.

Colorado currently ranks 128th in Total Defense and 125th in Rushing Offense, which is not exactly what you want for a first-time road favorite.

Arizona State has certainly had its issues offensively under first-year head coach Kenny Dillingham, but the Sun Devils did have their best offensive performance of the season with 430 yards (362 through the air) last week in a 24-21 loss at Cal. ASU should be able to move the ball on Colorado as well.

Bet: Arizona State +4.5 (to +3.5)

Kentucky at Georgia (-14.5; 47.5)

The Georgia Bulldogs are undefeated and ranked No. 1 in the country. However, they have let to look like the dominant teams that have won consecutive National Championships.

In fact, the Bulldogs are one of just five FBS teams that have yet to cover a point spread this season. Granted, a two-time defending national champion is always going to be laying a line with a taxed premium every single week.

Now the Bulldogs welcome undefeated and No. 20 ranked Kentucky, who ran over Florida 33-14 behind 329 yards on the ground.

The Wildcats are 5-0 but have played a fairly soft schedule before last week (Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron, and at Vanderbilt).

This week’s game reminds of last year when Georgia faced undefeated Tennessee, and it looked like the spot where the Bulldogs could get bit. Georgia won 27-13 and covered as 9.5-point favorites.

Georgia looks less explosive offensively under new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo and even the defense, which is usually ranked at the top, currently sits just 16th nationally. However, this is the game that might get Georgia interested and focused to show the nation that they are still very much the team to beat.

Kentucky has covered four straight in the series, and Georgia is still without an ATS win. It is a rare situation for the No. 1 team in the country to be almost a contrarian favorite, but this appears to be what we have. This may even drop to 14, but even if it does not, this game will be "Dawgs On Top" and showing a potential ‘Johnny come lately’ who is still boss in the SEC East.

Bet: Georgia -14.5 (to -16.5)

 

 

Georgia Tech at Miami (FL) (-20.5; 57.5)

We should all be running to the window to back a team that lost to Bowling Green at home outright as three-touchdown favorites, right?

Georgia Tech led the visiting Falcons 14-0 right out of the gate, and it looked like the rout was on. Well, it was as Bowling Green scored 38 unanswered points en route to a 38-27 victory.

The Yellow Jackets were -3 in the turnover margin plus allowed Bowling Green to possess the ball for 42:45 and allowed 10-for-17 on third downs. This is partially what led to head coach Brent Key demoting defensive coordinator Andrew Thacker to safeties coach and elevating Kevin Sherrer to the position.

Meanwhile, "The U" is rolling right along with the nation’s 9th-best rushing offense (222.5 YPG) that also currently ranks in the top 10 for both total and scoring offense. QB Tyler Van Dyke has thrown 11 TD versus just 1 INT.

Miami is off a bye week and has scored at least 38 points in all four games this season, while Georgia Tech has allowed at least 38 points in all three of its losses this season.

On paper, this looks like a total mismatch, but this could be a bad spot for Miami. Georgia Tech was in a bad spot last week after winning at Wake Forest and looking past its MAC opponent. Meanwhile, Miami has a likely battle of the unbeatens next week at North Carolina, who has beaten them four straight times with three of those losses being decided by three points.

Brent Key is 7-2 ATS as a road underdog, and Georgia Tech is not as bad as they showed last week. They likely should have beaten still-undefeated Louisville and only trailed by 7 in the fourth quarter at Ole Miss.

Bet: Georgia Tech +20.5 (to +20)

Oregon State (-9.5; 51.5) at California

Oregon State is off to a 4-1 start but is also off two high-energy games against ranked foes (38-35 loss at Washington State, 21-7 win vs. Utah). They could also draw a potential ranked opponent next week with UCLA coming to Corvallis. So, this week is a bit of a tricky spot at Cal.

Cal is 11-4 ATS as a home underdog since Justin Wilcox took over at Berkeley in 2017.

Both teams are particularly strong against the run (Oregon State ranking 4th at 67.2 YPG, Cal ranking 23rd at 98.4 YPG). The Beavers will be missing DT James Rawls and LB Calvin Hart Jr., two good run stoppers, for the first half due to targeting penalties against Utah last week.

D.J. Uiagalelei seems to have found a home at Oregon State and has thrown for 1,032 yards and eight touchdowns in five games, plus he has run for five. He has been helped out immensely by a running game averaging 206 YPG (15th nationally). Cal’s rushing defense should be able to force him to make plays down the field though, especially on third downs where the Bears held Arizona State to 3-for-15 last week.

As for Cal’s quarterback situation, Ben Finley returned to practice this week and certainly is an upgrade as a passer (62% completions) over Sam Jackson (53% completions). Both quarterbacks likely play here.

The Golden Bears have been a bit unlucky this year as they should have beaten Auburn and allowed a pair of defensive/special teams touchdowns at Washington.

Cal is a gritty team that is tough to get margin on (covered vs. Washington and at USC last year plus won at Notre Dame and at Washington State), and Wilcox has a better group than last year’s bunch.

Bet: California +9.5 (to +8)

 

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