College football predictions Week 7 from Wes Reynolds

By
Wes Reynolds
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College football expert betting picks for Week 7

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews 

 

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(odds as of October 12, 10:35 p.m. PT)

 

Indiana at Michigan (-34; 45.5)

The Hoosiers are off a bye week after being mauled 44-17 at Maryland. Walt Bell was fired as offensive coordinator and Rod Carey, who played at Indiana from 1990-1993, was elevated to the position. Former Virginia Tech and Memphis head coach Justin Fuente also recently joined the staff as an offensive analyst. These changes can only help an offense that ranks in the bottom 25-30 FBS teams in every major offensive category.

The Indiana defense has been respectable and held Louisville to 21 and Ohio State to 23. They will have to be ready for a power running game from Michigan that leads them to rank just 128th out of 133 teams in plays per game.

Michigan is off two road wins and covers scoring 45 at Nebraska and 52 at Minnesota, so they are priced to the moon. The Wolverines did fail to cover as similar-sized favorites against East Carolina, UNLV, and Bowling Green and also has the rivalry game at Michigan State on deck.

The slow pace, new clock rules, and perhaps an inspired effort from Indiana off a bye should keep them within this number where the total dropped to 45.5 with potential weather.

Bet: Indiana +34 (to +31.5)

Georgia (-31.5; 56) at Vanderbilt

Last week, Georgia finally had an opponent in undefeated No. 20 Kentucky that got them interested. The Bulldogs defeated the Wildcats 51-13 and outgained them 608-183. QB Carson Beck threw for 389 yards (307 in the first half) and four touchdowns.

Now the Dawgs travel to Nashville before their bye week to play at Vanderbilt, who is 0-7 ATS on the season. Vandy QB AJ Swann is available but has been battling an elbow contusion, so Ken Seals will get the start. Swann has thrown seven interceptions in five starts.

There is a good chance that Georgia comes out flat against an inferior opponent as they have done all season before last week.

The underdog will give a good enough effort to stay within the number.

Bet: Vanderbilt +31.5 (to +31)

Illinois at Maryland (-14; 51.5)

Like Vanderbilt above, Illinois is another winless ATS team at 0-6. This could be the bottom of the market though for the Illini as Maryland is off a tough loss at Ohio State that was closer than the eventual 37-17 final score indicated. The Terps might have an emotional hangover here.

Illinois has certainly had a drop off from last year with defensive coordinator Ryan Walters now as the head coach at Purdue. The QB play from Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer has not been effective, and the Illini are still looking for a replacement for Chase Brown at RB.

Maryland also has a bye week on deck and could take an Illinois team lightly that is 0-3 in league play and has been defeated by double digits in all three games by an average score of 31-13.

Bet: Illinois +14 (to +13)

 

Louisville (-7.5; 44.5) at Pittsburgh

Louisville took advantage of a tired Notre Dame squad off two down-to-the-wire games vs. Ohio State and at Duke. The Cardinals also took advantage of five Irish turnovers en route to a 33-20 victory.

Now the Cardinals sit atop the ACC with Florida State and are 6-0 on the season. However, if you look at the overall body of work, you see that the Cards have been a bit fortunate. They were fortunate to get by Georgia Tech in the opener having trailed 28-13 at halftime. They also needed a stop on 4th and goal at the 1 to survive Indiana. Louisville was also life and death to survive with a close win at NC State. If you are keeping score, Georgia Tech has since demoted its offensive coordinator, Indiana has fired its offensive coordinator, and NC State has since benched its quarterback who started against Louisville.

Pitt, at 1-4, is off its bye week and looks to be playing its "back against the wall" game to save its season. The Panthers are on a four-game losing streak and are starting its backup QB for the first time as Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux replaces an ineffective Phil Jurkovec.

This is a difficult spot for a Louisville club who may be starting to believe its hype.

Bet: Pittsburgh +7.5

Miami (FL) at North Carolina (-3.5; 56.5)

We all saw how Miami, who should have been coming into this week undefeated in what should be a battle of the unbeatens, lost last week against Georgia Tech. Mario Cristobal, inexplicably, did not take knees to end the game with the Yellow Jackets out of timeouts. And, well the rest is history.

Now the Hurricanes have had to relive that meltdown all week and must get up off the mat and face North Carolina, a team that Miami was obviously looking ahead toward last week.

Although the Canes outgained Georgia Tech by over 200 yards (Georgia Tech gained 74 of its 250 yards on two plays after the Miami late fumble), Miami was sloppy and could only build a 3-0 lead at halftime despite holding Georgia Tech to just 61 yards in the first half. The Canes ended up with five turnovers.

Ordinarily, this might be a sell spot on Miami, but the Canes have lost four straight times to North Carolina, and three of those four defeats were by exactly three points.

Aside from wanting to end its losing streak to the Tar Heels, we should get a motivated Miami wanting to atone for its humiliating defeat last week.

Despite the sloppy performance with a horrible ending last week, Miami is still a good football team and only one of two teams (Oregon) to rank in the Top 10 nationally for both total offense and total defense that might be oversold a bit too early.

Bet: Miami +3.5

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