College Football Stability System for Week 0:

By Steve Makinen

Before unveiling this week’s qualifying play for my long-running Stability System in College Football, let me remind you of the details of the methodology. If you are already familiar with how this system works, simply scroll down to the bottom of the article for the Week 0 qualifying game, plus an additional head-to-head trend that may be worthy of consideration for Saturday. You can also check out the Stability System article we published earlier this month.

 

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Over the last 12 years or so, I have implemented an early-season strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability ratings in matchups against those in the most unstable situations. In those 12 years, I have NEVER experienced a losing record by playing the games on the lists for the first four weeks of the season. The degree of success has varied, but in all 12 years, I have closed with a profit, including last year when the plays I shared went 30-23 ATS (56.5%). That is a typical year for this system, following ’22 results of 57.4%. Had a bettor been playing $100 wagers on each game, they would have profited $470. Of course, these numbers can be improved by factoring in other successful handicapping strategies or by more closely examining the individual factors of instability, but as a stand-alone strategy, the success level is tough to beat.

For those of you doubting my strategy regarding transfer quarterbacks being designated as “new,” consider the record of the last two years as a strong indicator of why this has not changed a thing about the overall system.

Check out my chart of the College Football Stability Scores for 2024 below. When the season arrives, I will put together lists for each of the first four weeks detailing the top mismatches. A Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum I will consider a play on. Incidentally, SMU hosting Nevada in Week 0 shows the first 2024 playable game with a difference of 11.

VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SCORES HERE

Here are the basics for how I determine each team’s Total Stability Score. The score is determined from five stabilizing factors: Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Quarterback and Overall Returning Starters. Here is how the scores are determined:

Returning Head Coach Points

Yes, same Head Coach as 2023: 4 points

No, new Head Coach for 2024: 0 points

Returning Offensive Coordinator Points

Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2023: 3 points

No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2024: 0 points

Returning Defensive Coordinator Points

Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2023: 3 points

No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2024: 0 points

Returning Starting Quarterback Points

Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2023: 4 points

No, new Starting Quarterback for 2024: 0 points

I consider a transfer quarterback who is expected to start for his team as a NEW QUARTERBACK, regardless of the starting experience level he brings. For 2024, there are again numerous recognizable QBs who have found new starting homes across the country. For instance, Dillon Gabriel at Oklahoma and DJ Uiagalelei at Florida State are among the veteran QBs who boast a wealth of college football experience but will be in new schemes this fall. While they are not your typical first-year quarterbacks, they are NEW to those programs.

Total Number of Returning Starters Points

0-7 returning offensive and defensive starters: 0 points

8-9: 1 point

10-12: 2 points

13-16: 3 points

17-19: 4 points

20-22: 5 points

With all of this in mind, here are the details of the qualifying Stability Mismatch play for Week 0. As you can see from the chart above showing the Stability scores of all 134 teams, SMU has an 17, Nevada has a 6. I will be writing about a lot more of these plays over the next three weeks.

Saturday, Aug. 24

(307) SMU (-24.5) at (308) NEVADA — Stability Advantage: SMU by 11

SMU might have picked the ideal time to step up into ACC competition, as the Mustangs bring back not only a lot of experience but a lot of winning experience as well. They have 15 starters back, highlighted by QB Preston Stone, for head coach Rhett Lashlee’s third team at the school. Undoubtedly, the Mustangs will be able to score, as they’ve topped the 37 PPG mark in each of the last five seasons. This past season however, they set new benchmarks on the other side of the ball, allowing just 17.8 PPG, an improvement of 16 PPG over the prior season. Nevada on the other hand, hosts this game coming off a 2-10 season and begins anew under first-time head coach Jeff Choate, who was the Texas defensive coordinator the last three years. The Wolfpack have their starting QB back in Brendon Lewis, but he threw just two touchdown passes and six interceptions in 236 pass attempts in 2023. Their returning experience doesn’t make them unstable, but the changing of schemes and leadership does. There’s a reason this is a big number, but the Stability System suggests it isn’t big enough.

I indicated earlier that a significant head-to-head series trend affects one of the other Week 0 games. Since we will not offer our first VSiN College Football Analytics Report until next week, I’m including that trend here.

FLORIDA STATE vs. GEORGIA TECH (In Dublin)

Trend: GEORGIA TECH is on a 7-1-1 ATS run versus Florida State

The game that opens the 2024 college football season will be played in Dublin, Ireland, a neutral contest between two ACC rivals with big hopes for the upcoming season. The Seminoles come off an undefeated 13-0 regular season in ’23 but were held out of the College Football Playoff after QB Jordan Travis went down with an injury. They enter the season as the favorite in the conference, but the Yellow Jackets are poised to be a potential surprise team. A win here over a conference power that they have played well could catapult their season prospects.

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