The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 3. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
When better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 53-15 SU and 46-19-3 ATS (70.8%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (-7.5 vs. Arizona)

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 38-66 SU & 35-65-4 ATS (35%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NOTRE DAME (-10.5 at Purdue)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 205-160 ATS (56.2%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY ALL): EAST CAROLINA (+2.5 vs. App State), EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2 vs. Jax State)

NEW MEXICO STATE at FRESNO STATE
Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of NMSU-FSU head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* UNLV is 21-5 (80.8%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017
Systems Match: PLAY UNLV (+7 at Kansas)

VIRGINIA TECH is 4-19 (17.4%) ATS in the last 23 games following up a SU win
System Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (-14 at Old Dominion)

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to Makinen BETTOR RATINGS projections: BYU-WYOMING OVER 39.5 (+8.2 difference)

**INTRIGUING STABILITY SCORE PLAYS BELOW** 

College Football Stability Score Plays for Week 3

If you were one of the many readers of the 2024 College Football Betting Guide, or alternatively, have been a VSiN subscriber for a while now. If so, you’re probably already familiar with the methodology Steve Makinen has successfully used for the last 12 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. 

If not, in a nutshell, what these scores are is a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies he employs every year to find value early. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded. 

Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Week 0-3. He has found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which he will consider a play for this thought process. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. (In 2024, these plays are 14-10 ATS). There is a separate article on VSiN that goes in-depth about these plays and scores. 

(127) ARKANSAS STATE (+22.5) at (128) MICHIGAN
Stability Advantage: ARKANSAS ST by 14

(131) MASSACHUSETTS (+4.5) at (132) BUFFALO
Stability Advantage: MASSACHUSETTS by 11

(135) TEXAS A&M at (136) FLORIDA (+4.5)
Stability Advantage: FLORIDA by 9 

(137) WASHINGTON STATE (+4) vs (138) WASHINGTON
Stability Advantage: WASHINGTON ST by 12 

(139) OREGON (-16.5) at (140) OREGON STATE
Stability Advantage: OREGON by 13

(153) TROY at (154) IOWA (-22.5)
Stability Advantage: IOWA by 15 

(161) UTEP at (162) LIBERTY (-23.5)
Stability Advantage: LIBERTY by 12

(179) SOUTH FLORIDA (-11.5) at (180) SOUTHERN MISS
Stability Advantage: SOUTH FLORIDA by 12

(181) TOLEDO (+9.5) at (182) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Stability Advantage: TOLEDO by 10

(183) NEW MEXICO at (184) AUBURN (-28)
Stability Advantage: AUBURN by 11

(201) BYU (-8.5) at (202) WYOMING
Stability Advantage: BYU by 10

(203) NEW MEXICO STATE at (204) FRESNO STATE (-20)
Stability Advantage: FRESNO ST by 12 

(205) SAN DIEGO STATE at (206) CALIFORNIA (-18)
Stability Advantage: CALIFORNIA by 12

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). This angle has produced at around 46% consistently since first discovered. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ALABAMA, CINCINNATI, COASTAL CAROLINA, WEST VIRGINIA, MIAMI (FL), ARKANSAS, IOWA, LIBERTY, FIU, OLE MISS, TEXAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, BAYLOR, GEORGIA, INDIANA, TENNESSEE, MARYLAND, BYU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%; in 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA STATE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI, BUFFALO, COASTAL CAROLINA, WASHINGTON, WEST VIRGINIA, MIAMI (FL), ARKANSAS, UTAH, OLE MISS, EASTERN MICHIGAN, VANDERBILT, TEXAS, SOUTH FLORIDA, SAN JOSE STATE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, GEORGIA, TENNESSEE, HOUSTON, MARYLAND, BYU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023 but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA STATE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI, LSU, COASTAL CAROLINA, TEXAS A&M, WEST VIRGINIA, NOTRE DAME, OLE MISS, WESTERN KENTUCKY, VANDERBILT, SOUTH FLORIDA, GEORGIA, INDIANA, MARYLAND, BYU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UNLV, ARIZONA, NORTH TEXAS, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, LOUISIANA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE, TULANE, UCONN, FIU, NEW MEXICO, UCF, RICE, SAN DIEGO STATE 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and though it was down a bit for ’23, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ARIZONA, BOSTON COLLEGE, FIU, HAWAII, NEW MEXICO, NEW MEXICO STATE, SAN DIEGO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): Thursday: ARIZONA STATE
Friday: KANSAS, ARIZONA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in a FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 313-354 ATS (46.9%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UNLV, CINCINNATI, NORTH TEXAS, BUFFALO, COASTAL CAROLINA, MIAMI (FL), IOWA, FIU, LIBERTY, OLE MISS, TEXAS, VANDERBILT, EASTERN MICHIGAN, SAN JOSE STATE, GEORGIA, INDIANA, TENNESSEE, RICE, BYU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTEP-LIBERTY, SOUTH FLORIDA-SOUTHERN MISS, COLORADO-COLORADO STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TROY-IOWA, KENNESAW STATE-SAN JOSE STATE, AIR FORCE-BAYLOR

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). This system improved its win percentage in 2023. Again, there are not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of a number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): FIU-FAU, KENNESAW STATE-SAN JOSE STATE, GEORGIA-KENTUCKY, RICE-HOUSTON, BYU-WYOMING

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only. 

Best & Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* KENTUCKY is 15-17 SU and 19-13 ATS (59.4%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY KENTUCKY (+24 vs. UGA)

* OREGON STATE is 16-29 SU and 27-17 ATS (61.4%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: PLAY OREGON STATE (+16.5 vs. Oregon)

Worst

* CINCINNATI is 8-12 SU and 6-14 ATS (30%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-2.5 at Miami (OH))

College Football Revenge Systems

Neutral field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 45-29 ATS (60.8%).
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON STATE (+5 vs. Washington)

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 102-116 ATS (46.8%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-2.5 at Miami (OH)) 

Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 609-538 ATS (53.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNLV, CINCINNATI, WASHINGTON STATE, OREGON STATE, EAST CAROLINA, OLD DOMINION, EASTERN MICHIGAN, KENTUCKY, HOUSTON, VIRGINIA, NEW MEXICO STATE

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 205-160 ATS (56.2%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY ALL): EAST CAROLINA (+2.5 vs. App State), EASTERN MICHIGAN (-2 vs. Jacksonville State)

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams

· In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 170-85 SU and 145-102-8 ATS (58.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS STATE (-7.5 vs. Arizona), MISSOURI (-16.5 vs. BC) 

· Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 102-18 SU and 75-41-4 ATS (64.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS STATE (-7.5 vs. Arizona), MISSOURI (-16.5 vs. BC) 

· Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 53-15 SU and 46-19-3 ATS (70.8%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS STATE (-7.5 vs. Arizona)

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4

In college football games featuring two ranked teams, with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 36-15 (70.6%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 22-7 (75.9%).
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BC-MISSOURI (o/u at 54)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 93-62 ATS (60%).
System Match (PLAY ALL): BOSTON COLLEGE (+17 at Missouri), KENT STATE (+49 at Tennessee)

Upset losses as huge favorites snowball
Teams that lose in a college football game as favorites of 19.5 points or more have gone just 38-66 SU and 35-65-4 ATS (35%) in the follow-up contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NOTRE DAME (-10.5 at Purdue)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 130-174 ATS (42.8%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+20 at Illinois), FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+5.5 at FAU)

Dismal offensive performances carry over
College football teams that gained 100 yards or fewer in a game have not bounced back well in the next, going just 24-33-1 ATS (42.1%) in their last 58 tries.
System Match (FADE): WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs. Bethune-Cookman)

Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag
CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 35-53 ATS (39.8%) in their next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CALIFORNIA (-19.5 vs SDSU)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
 Over the course of the last decade, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 136-99 ATS (57.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-3 at UCLA), RICE (+4.5 at Houston)

Playing well offensively but losing a good sign for next outing
 College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 59-39-2 ATS (60.2%) over the last 10 years.
System Match (PLAY): ARKANSAS (-24.5 vs. UAB)

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UAB +24.5 (+8.0)
2. UCLA +3 (+5.8)
3. MIAMI (OH) +3.5 (+5.6)
4. TOLEDO +11.5 (+4.2)
5. KENTUCKY +24 (+2.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NC STATE -21.5 (+6.5)
2. NOTRE DAME -10 (+4.9)
3. FLORIDA STATE -6.5 (+4.3)
4. MICHIGAN -23.5 (+4.1)
5. BYU -10.5 (+3.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UCONN +17 (+7.6)
2. TOLEDO +11.5 (+5.7)
3. UNLV +7 (+5.0)
4(tie). TULSA +20.5 (+4.3)
TULANE +13 (+4.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MICHIGAN -23.5 (+6.4)
2. NOTRE DAME -10 (+5.6)
3. TEXAS -35 (+5.4)
4. LIBERTY -23.5 (+4.8)
5. COASTAL CAROLINA -18.5 (+4.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. AIR FORCE-BAYLOR OVER 41.5 (+6.2)
2. BYU-WYOMING OVER 39.5 (+6.0)
3. INDIANA-UCLA OVER 46 (+5.5)
4. NOTRE DAME-PURDUE OVER 45 (+4.3)
5. LA TECH-NC STATE OVER 49 (+3.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UAB-ARKANSAS UNDER 60.5 (-5.7)
2. WASHINGTON STATE-WASHINGTON UNDER 56 (-4.9)
3. NEW MEXICO-AUBURN UNDER 61 (-4.8)
4(tie). APPALACHIAN STATE-EAST CAROLINA UNDER 60.5 (-4.7)
TOLEDO-MISSISSIPPI STATE UNDER 60.5 (-4.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UAB +24.5 (+6.7)
2. TOLEDO +11.5 (+6.0)
3. UCLA +3 (+5.2)
4. SOUTHERN MISS +11.5 (+4.6)
5. BOSTON COLLEGE +17 (+4.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1(tie). KANSAS STATE -7.5 (+5.2)
BYU -10.5 (+5.2)
3. NC STATE -21.5 (+4.7)
4. NOTRE DAME -10 (+4.5)
5. VIRGINIA TECH -14 (+3.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BYU-WYOMING OVER 39.5 (+8.2)
2. AIR FORCE-BAYLOR OVER 41.5 (+7.4)
3. NOTRE DAME-PURDUE OVER 45 (+7.1)
4. INDIANA-UCLA OVER 46 (+6.5)
5. LA TECH-NC STATE -49 (+6.4) 

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW MEXICO-AUBURN UNDER 61 (-5.2)
2. TOLEDO-MISSISSIPPI STATE UNDER 59.5 (-4.8)
3(tie). APPALACHIAN STATE-EAST CAROLINA UNDER 60.5 (-3.0)
MARYLAND-VIRGINIA UNDER 57.5 (-3.0)
5. KENT STATE-TENNESSEE UNDER 62.5 (-2.9)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* AIR FORCE is 28-17 (62.2%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
System Match: PLAY AIR FORCE (+15.5 at Baylor) 

* AKRON is 12-28-1 (30%) ATS at home since 2016
System Match: FADE AKRON (-14.5 vs Colgate) 

* ARIZONA is 16-26 (38.1%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since20’16
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (+7.5 at Kansas St) 

* ARIZONA ST is 4-8 ATS (33.3%) in the last three seasons in Non-Conference games
Systems Match: FADE ARIZONA ST (-1.5 at Texas State) 

* BALL STATE is 31-15 (67.4%) Under the total over the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Ball State-Miami (FL) (o/u at 54) 

* BUFFALO is 19-9 (67.9%) ATS at home since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-4.5 vs. UMass) 

* CHARLOTTE is 2-11 (15.4%) ATS at home since 2022
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (-8.5 vs. Gardner-Webb)

* DUKE is 31-13 (70.5%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
System Match: PLAY DUKE (-17 vs. UConn) 

* FRESNO ST is 26-15 (63.4%) Under the total since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER in NMSU-Fresno State (o/u at 48.5) 

* GEORGIA is 21-9 (70%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
System Match: PLAY GEORGIA (-24 at UK) 

* GEORIGA TECH is 6-19 ATS (24%) as a favorite since 2018
System Match: FADE GEORGIA TECH (-42.5 vs VMI) 

* IOWA is 42-22 (65.6%) Under the total in the last 63 games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Troy-Iowa (o/u at 39) 

* KANSAS is 3-13 (18.8%) ATS as favorite since 2018

* KANSAS is 32-17 (65.3%) Over the total since 2019
Systems Match: FADE KANSAS (-7 vs UNLV), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 58)

* KANSAS STATE is 40-23-2 (63.5%) ATS since 2019
System Match: PLAY KANSAS STATE (-7.5 vs Arizona) 

* KENT ST is 6-17 (26.1%) ATS in the last 23 games as an underdog
System Match: FADE KENT ST (+49 at Tennessee) 

* LOUISIANA TECH is 31-16-1 (66%) Over the total since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER in LA Tech-NC State (o/u at 49) 

* LSU is 21-11 (65.6%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2019

* LSU is 21-8 (72.4%) Over the total since 2022
Systems Match: PLAY LSU (-7 at South Carolina), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 50)

* MARYLAND is 16-6 (72.7%) ATS in the last 22 Non-Conference games
System Match: PLAY MARYLAND (-2.5 at UVA) 

* MIAMI (OH) is on a 29-15 (65.9%) Under the total run over the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Cincy-Miami (OH) (o/u at 45)

* MICHIGAN is 29-15-1 (65.9%) ATS in the last three seasons (including 16-5 ATS in Road/Neutral games)
System Match: PLAY MICHIGAN (-23.5 vs. Arkansas State) 

* MISSISSIPPI ST is 25-14 (64.1%) Under the total since 2021

* MISSISSIPPI ST is 14-8 (63.6%) ATS at home since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (-12 vs. Toledo), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 59.5) 

* NEBRASKA is 4-12 (25%) ATS at home in the last 16
System Match: FADE NEBRASKA (-28.5 vs UNI)

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 27-15 (64.3%) ATS in last three seasons (including 11-4 ATS as a favorite)
System Match: PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE (+19.5 at Fresno State) 

* OLD DOMINION is 7-18 (28%) ATS at home since 2019
System Match: FADE OLD DOMINION (+14 vs. VA Tech) 

* OREGON ST is 25-11 (69.4%) ATS coming off SU win since 2016

* OREGON ST is 25-6 (80.6%) ATS in home games over the last five seasons
Systems Match: PLAY OREGON STATE (+16.5 vs. Oregon)

* PITTSBURGH is 34-17 (66.7%) Over the total since 2020
System Match: PLAY OVER in WVU-Pitt (o/u at 60) 

* PURDUE is 16-9 (64%) ATS as Underdog since 2020
System Match: PLAY PURDUE (+10 vs Notre Dame) 

* SAN DIEGO ST is 41-19 (68.3%) Under the total since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER in SDSU-Cal (o/u at 48) 

* TEMPLE is 13-10 (56.5%) ATS coming off SU Loss since 2020
System Match: PLAY TEMPLE (+17.5 vs Coastal Carolina) 

* TENNESSEE is 13-1 (92.9%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (-49 vs Kent St) 

* TROY is 16-4 (80%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
System Match: PLAY TROY (+22 at Iowa)

* UNLV is 21-5 (80.8%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017

* UNLV is on a 13-4 (76.5%) ATS run following a SU win
Systems Match: PLAY UNLV (+7 at Kansas)

* VANDERBILT is on a 3-10 (23.1%) ATS skid following a SU win
System Match: FADE VANDERBILT (-10.5 at Georgia St) 

* VIRGINIA TECH is 4-19 (17.4%) ATS in the last 23 games following up a SU win
System Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (-14 at Old Dominion) 

* W KENTUCKY is 10-21 (32.3%) ATS as favorite since 2019
System Match: FADE WESTERN KENTUCKY (-7 at MTSU)

These are the top head-to-head college football series trends between teams from recent years’ action: 

(121) CINCINNATI at (122) MIAMI OHIO
*Underdogs are on an 8-2 ATS run in Cincy-Miami (OH) in-state series
System Match: PLAY MIAMI (OH) (+2.5 vs. Cincy) 

(137) WASHINGTON ST vs (138) WASHINGTON
*Favorites are on a 7-2 ATS run in Wash-Wash State rivalry series
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-5 vs Washington State) 

(149) NOTRE DAME at (150) PURDUE
*Under the total is 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between ND-Purdue
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46) 

(165) FLA INTERNATIONAL at (166) FLA ATLANTIC
*FLA ATLANTIC has dominated the series recently, winning six straight ATS (beating spread by 22.25 pts on average)
System Match: PLAY FLA ATLANTIC (-5.5 vs. FIU) (203) NEW MEXICO STATE at (204) FRESNO STATE
*Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the NMSU-FSU series
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 48.5)

For more College Football Week 3 predictions, visit the College Football Week 3 Hub at VSiN.com.

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