College Football Week 1: TCU vs. Stanford

Friday Night Lights is a concept associated more with high school football, but we’ve got four games on the college football card for August 30. With TCU laying 9.5 on the road at Stanford and three home teams favored by two touchdowns or more, it could be a chalky evening.

So, the Friday slate isn’t exciting on the surface, but we’re all excited to have college football and betting back. With that, let’s look at TCU vs. Stanford, Temple vs. Oklahoma, Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin, and Florida Atlantic vs. Michigan State, with the Horned Frogs and Cardinal getting the headline spot.

 

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TCU Horned Frogs (-9, 60) at Stanford Cardinal

10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Year 1 in the ACC for Stanford begins with a non-conference clash, as the Trees welcome TCU to Palo Alto. Our own Stormy Buonantony draws the sideline assignment for ESPN in this one, so that’s a good reason to watch, but there are a lot of other reasons as well.

Most college football teams have a lot of questions entering a season and these two are no different. TCU hands the reins of the offense to Josh Hoover, who played pretty well with a 62.1% completion rate and over 2,200 yards. He did, however, throw nine interceptions and that’s how underdogs are able to stay in games. Hoover has Savion Williams, who will be an NFL player, and Boise State transfer Eric McAlister to throw to, but the Horned Frogs need to find some balance with the running game now that 1,200-yard rusher Emani Bailey is gone.

Stanford head coach Troy Taylor had a very young roster last season, including sophomore QB Ashton Daniels. Daniels had an 11/8 TD/INT ratio and played through some nagging ailments throughout the course of the second half of the season once he fully took over as the starter. He has a top-tier weapon in Elic Ayomanor and Taylor put a lot of emphasis on improving the run.

The Cardinal offense takes on a new-look TCU defense that will go back to the 4-2-5 defense of the past after running a 3-3-5 last year. A clean slate is probably better with a new DC, so maybe it isn’t a bad thing that the Horned Frogs only had a handful of defensive starters back, but I don’t see enough efficiency on both sides of the ball for TCU to win by double digits here.

I’d hang around on this number and see if it gets back to 10. Stanford was just 3-9 last year and there is a lot of negative sentiment around the program’s chances this season because of the move to the ACC and the travel concerns.

Pick: Stanford +9.5

Other Friday Games

Temple Owls at Oklahoma Sooners (-42.5, 59)

7 p.m. ET, ESPN

The first game of the ESPN doubleheader is this one, where Temple, who I think is a contender for the fewest wins in college football, takes the field as a six-touchdown dog to Oklahoma. All eyes will be on Jackson Arnold to see how he looks against a defense he can easily overmatch after going 26-of-45 for 361 yards in the Alamo Bowl. He had two touchdowns and a lot of yardage, but also three interceptions.

It will also be interesting to see how offensive analyst turned offensive coordinator Seth Littrell handles Arnold and the playing time here with stiffer tests against Houston and Tulane on deck.

Temple lost EJ Warner to the transfer portal, so one of the more compelling reasons to watch the Owls is gone. No bet from me on this one.

Florida Atlantic Owls at Michigan State Spartans (-14, 45)

7 p.m. ET, BTN

After you spend the time remembering which channel number Big Ten Network is, you can tune in to the first game of Jonathan Smith’s tenure in East Lansing. He brought QB Aidan Chiles with him from Oregon State and some other Beavers also turned in their black and orange to wear green and white, including TE Jack Veiling.

The biggest task for Smith and OC Brian Lindgren is to find people that can protect Chiles, and FAU is a good opening test in that regard. The Owls were tied for 21st with 87 tackles for loss last season and return more pieces on defense than they do on offense. In fact, Tom Herman and Charlie Frye had one returning starter on that side.

I lean Michigan State here. FAU is not recruiting well and not faring terribly well in the portal. 

Lean: Michigan State -14

Western Michigan Broncos at Wisconsin Badgers (-23, 56)

9 p.m. ET, FS1

Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke beat out Braedyn Locke for the starting QB gig at Wisconsin, so he’ll lead the team into Week 1 against Western Michigan. This is a big year for Luke Fickell and OC Phil Longo. The Badgers finished 84th in yards per play last season and have to replace Braelon Allen at running back. Chez Mellusi is solid, but the Badgers are going to need more from the passing game.

Second-year head coach Lance Taylor brought in former Power Five OC Walt Bell to run that side of the ball and also changed defensive coordinators. Scott Power is the new DC after two defensive coaches were yanked by bigger schools. Power was the DC at Louisiana Tech and a hire that I liked when he came over from Stephen F. Austin. It did not work out, but maybe it’ll go better here.

There are so many transfers here that I don’t quite know what Western Michigan will be. But, I’m not excited to lay 23 with Wisconsin and we’ve seen some 24s evaporate in the middle of the week. Lean Broncos, but not strongly, as my line is 21.5.

Slight Lean: Western Michigan +23

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